Q3 GDP Tracking: Just Over 3%

The BEA will release the advance estimate of Q3 GDP next week. The consensus estimate is GDP increased at a 3.0% real annual rate in Q3, the same rate as in Q2.

From BofA:

Our 3Q GDP tracking estimate was unchanged this week. We expect the advance 3Q GDP estimate to print at 3.0% q/q saar, unchanged from 2Q. ... Underlying demand in the US economy continues to impress as we expect final sales to grow by 3.2% q/q saar, up from 2.9% in 2Q. [Oct 25th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Today’s reading on core capital goods shipments was lower than our previous assumption; we lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Oct 25th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.3 percent on October 25, down from 3.4 percent on October 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent to 2.7 percent. [Oct 25th estimate]