by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2024 12:34:00 PM
Friday, November 22, 2024
Q4 GDP Tracking: Mid 2% Range
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) but boosted our Q4 domestic final sales forecast by 0.1pp to +2.0%. Our Q3 past-quarter tracking estimate stands at +2.9% (vs. 2.8% originally reported, quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Nov 21st estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
emphasis added
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.6 percent on November 19, up from 2.5 percent on November 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential fixed investment growth increased from -1.2 percent to 0.1 percent. [Nov 19th estimate]