by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2024 09:12:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, and September payrolls and October payrolls were revised up by 56,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.

Earlier: November Employment Report: 227 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate

Seasonal Retail Hiring

Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.

Retailers hired 281 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in November.  This was slightly lower than last year and suggests slightly less real retail sales this holiday season as last year.

This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a loss of 28.0 thousand retail jobs in November.

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in November at 83.5% from 83.5% in October.

The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.4% from 80.6% the previous month.

Both are near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in November.   

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.5 million in November. This measure is up from 4.0 million a year earlier. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 4.46 million from 4.56 million in October.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was increased to 7.8% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.66 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.61 million the previous month.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through November 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 47 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 3rd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).  It appears this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that will revise down job growth).

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
	Year Ended	Streak, Months
1	2019	113
2	1990	48
3	20241	47
4	2007	46
5	1979	45
6 tie	1943	33
6 tie	1986	33
6 tie	2000	33
9	1967	29
10	1995	25
1Currrent Streak

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, and September and October payrolls were revised up by 56,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.

This report was boosted by the end of strikes (especially Boeing) and workers returning following the hurricanes.  It probably makes sense to average the last two months, or about 132 thousand per month - down from the 153 thousand hiring pace over the previous 6 months.

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