by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2024 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 9.7% below the peak for the year (9 weeks ago).

Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in January or February.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 26.3% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 26.6%), and down 16.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.0%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Dec 20th, inventory was at 667 thousand (7-day average), compared to 682 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.