by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2024 02:15:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Slides 2% in November

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 2.3% in November to 191.5 (2000=100) from the revised October reading of 196.0. Over the month, commercial planning fell 4.6% while institutional planning improved 2.5%.

“Throughout 2024, we’ve seen robust growth in nonresidential planning activity – but labor shortages and high construction costs have prevented those projects from moving through the planning process at a normal pace. The current backlog may be constraining demand for commercial planning in the short-term,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Uncertainty over new tariff and immigration policies under president-elect Trump’s administration may also be generating some pause with developers, although it’s a bit too early to tell if that’s the primary factor here. Overall, easing monetary policy will help alleviate the backlog of projects in the planning queue throughout 2025 and spur more demand for projects in the coming months.”

On the commercial side, slower data center, office, warehouse and retail planning drove much of this month’s decline, while strong growth in education planning informed much of the growth on the institutional side. The institutional portion of the DMI has grown in 5 of the last 6 months.

In November, the DMI was 12% higher than year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 13% from November 2023, while the institutional segment was up 8% over the same period. The influence of data centers on the DMI this year has been substantial. If we remove all data center projects in 2023 and 2024, commercial planning would be down 6% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be down 1%.
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The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 191.5 in November, down from 196.0 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a slowdown in early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025.  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.