by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2024 09:09:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024.

CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 4.8% YoY in November, down from 5.0% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are slightly below the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. Note: There appears to be some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1, especially in January.

3-month annualized change:

PCE Price Index: 2.1%
Core PCE Prices: 2.5%
Core minus Housing: 2.3%

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