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Friday, December 13, 2024

Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2024 07:55:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to 3.0% q/q saar. Additionally, our 4Q US GDP tracker was unchanged at 2.1% q/q saar. [Dec 13th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking and domestic final sales estimates unchanged at +2.4% and +2.0%, respectively. [Dec 5th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.3 percent on December 5, up from 3.2 percent on December 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.2 percent to 1.8 percent. [Dec 5th estimate]