by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 04:05:00 PM

A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note:

Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. ... The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged labor force participation rate, at 62.5%. ... Following this morning’s data, we now expect the FOMC to deliver two 25bp cuts this year (vs. three previously) at its June and December meetings, followed by another cut in June 2026, to an unchanged terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%.

Market participants also expect the next FOMC rate cut in June (it is a close call), but only one rate cut in 2025 (close to two).