by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week.

Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.  

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 27.3% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 26.8%), and down 22.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 16.8%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Jan 3rd, inventory was at 635 thousand (7-day average), compared to 651 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.