by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 04:15:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2% in December to 212.0 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 192.3. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.2% while institutional planning improved 2.5%.

“Commercial activity rebounded strongly in December, thanks to a re-acceleration in data center and warehouse planning activity,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Overall, the strong performance of the Momentum Index this past year is expected to support nonresidential construction spending throughout 2025.”

On the commercial side, data center and warehouse planning drove much of the growth this month, while stronger healthcare and education activity supported the institutional portion. In December, the DMI was up 19% when compared to year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 30% from December 2023, while the institutional segment was flat over the same period. The influence of data centers on the DMI this year has been substantial. If we remove all data center projects in 2023 and 2024, commercial planning would be up 8% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be up 5%.
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The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 212.0 in December, up from 192.3 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a slowdown in early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025.  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.