by Calculated Risk on 2/17/2025 10:47:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in January, down 3.5% from December’s preliminary pace and up 2.3% from last January’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Note that this month’s existing home sales release will incorporate new seasonal factors, which will probably “smooth” monthly sales a little for last year – with slightly slower SA sales for the February-May period and slightly higher SA sales for the June-October period. I am assuming this January’s seasonal factor won’t be materially different from last January’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in December. Last year, the NAR reported sales in January 2024 at 4.00 million SAAR.

There is much more in the article.

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