by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 08:57:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 3.9% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through December 2024.

Services were up 4.2% YoY as of January 2025, down from 4.4% YoY in December.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.9% YoY in January, down from 4.0% YoY in December

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.2% YoY as of January 2025, up from -1.9% YoY in December.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -0.1% YoY in January, up from -0.7% YoY in December.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through January) and housing from the PCE report (through December)

Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December. Housing (PCE) was up 4.7% YoY in December, down from 4.8% in November.

This is still catching up with private new lease data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.4% YoY in January.

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