Calculated Risk: Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1%

Friday, March 28, 2025

Q1 GDP Tracking: -0.5% to 1%

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 11:20:00 AM

UPDATE: Updated Goldman tracking this morning.

From BofA:

1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +0.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 28th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. [Mar 28th estimate]