by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2025 06:18:00 PM

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability Headwind, U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 3.4% in February (pay site).

Continuing January’s trend, market strength was at the two far ends of the affordability scale, as entry-price cars and lower-cost CUVs posted big gains, while the same was true in most premium-price segments. The range of vehicles generally thought of as the bread-and-butter of the market, non-luxury compact and midsize cars, CUVs and SUVs, all recorded big declines. However, even when including lower-price vehicles, sales of non-luxury sedans and compact/midsize CUVs and SUVs were down 3.8% in January-February, which really is indicating a continued affordability issue – at least compared with pre-2020 (pandemic) history.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for February (red).

Sales in February (16.00 million SAAR) were up 2.5% from January, and up 2.1% from February 2024.

Sales in February were slightly above the consensus forecast.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

This was the best February since 2020.

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