by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2025 08:56:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail, where global trade accounts for approximately 38% of unit volume and 37% of total revenue. Even in stable times, railroads must constantly adjust to evolving economic conditions; they are operationally equipped to adapt to this latest round of policy change as well.

At present, rail traffic is holding steady. While some “soft” economic indicators, such as consumer confidence, have weakened in recent months, many “hard” economic metrics—including job gains, unemployment, and consumer spending—remain resilient. That continued strength has supported modest gains in rail volumes. That said, manufacturing remains mired in a prolonged period of weakness, limiting growth in several carload categories.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the AAR shows their index ("The AAR’s Freight Rail Index (FRI) is defined as intermodal plus carloads excluding coal and grain. We exclude coal and grain because their carloads tend to rise or fall for reasons that have little to do with what’s going on in the broader economy.")

U.S. railroads originated 906,253 total carloads in March 2025, up 4.5% (39,342 carloads) over last March and the third year-over-year increase in total carloads over the past 15 months. Total carloads averaged 226,563 in March 2025, the most in six months and the most for March since 2022.
...
U.S. railroads also originated 1.10 million containers and trailers in March 2025, up 8.0% (82,151 units) over March 2024 and intermodal’s 19th consecutive year-over-year gain.

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