by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2025 12:45:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.

These “Current State” summaries show us where we came from, where we are, and hopefully give us clues as to where we are going!

Note: Yesterday, I expressed concern about policy impacting housing and the economy. Then, at 12:57 PM ET, Goldman Sachs economists put out a note titled: Moving to a Recession Baseline. They argued - based on announced tariffs - that they were forecasting a recession and for the unemployment rate to rise to 5.7% in Q4.

Minutes later, a 90-day pause for most tariffs was announced (reducing tariffs to 10%, except China). An hour later Goldman Sachs put out a second note: Reverting to Our Previous Non-Recession Baseline. However, they still maintained a 45% change of recession in the next 12 months.

Forecasting is especially difficult with rapidly changing policy!
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 4.1% year-over-year (YoY) in January and will be about the same YoY - or slightly lower - in the February report (based on other data).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.57% (a 7.0% annual rate), This was the 24th consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index.

There is much more in the article.

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