by Calculated Risk on 3/29/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• New Home Sales Increase to 676,000 Annual Rate in February

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.1% year-over-year in January

• Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February and a Look Ahead to March Sales

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 3/29/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include the February Trade Deficit and March Auto Sales.

For manufacturing, the March ISM Manufacturing and Dallas Fed surveys will be released.

Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday.

----- Monday, March 31st -----
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, unchanged from 45.5 in February.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March.

----- Tuesday, April 1st -----
10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in January to 7.74 million from 7.51 million in December.

The number of job openings (black) were down 9% year-over-year. Quits were down 3% year-over-year.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, unchanged from 50.3 in February.  

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in construction spending.

All Day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.6 million SAAR in March, up from 16.0 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.

----- Wednesday, April 2nd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 77,000 added in February.

----- Thursday, April 3rd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $110.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $131.4 billion in January.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for March.

----- Friday, April 4th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.

There were 151,000 jobs added in February, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

11:25 AM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 07:15:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	602	658	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal.

Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup and about double the low of last June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of March 27th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has generally been moving down.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low", down from "Moderate" last week according to the CDC.   

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 04:38:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February

Excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.61%, unchanged from 0.61% January. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.54% in February 2024, however, this is close to the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Some of the recent increase in the 90+ day delinquency rate is probably related to the hurricanes last year.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.57%, unchanged from 0.57% in January. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.53% in February 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 11:20:00 AM

UPDATE: Updated Goldman tracking this morning.

From BofA:

1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +0.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 28th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. [Mar 28th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 08:56:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 4.3% YoY in February, down from 4.5% in January and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are well above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. Note: There is possibly some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1, especially in January.

3-month annualized change:

PCE Price Index: 3.9%
Core PCE Prices: 3.6%
Core minus Housing: 3.5%

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February:

Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $191.6 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.8 billion (0.4 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $118.4 billion in February. Personal saving was $1.02 trillion in February and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for February increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for February increased 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The February PCE price index increased 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 2.5 percent YoY in January, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, up from 2.7 percent in January, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was above expectations.  PCE was at expectations.

Inflation was above expectations.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q1 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 0.9% annual rate in Q1 2024. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 0.2%).  This suggests weak PCE growth in Q1.

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 08:13:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 57.9.

• Also at 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for February 2025

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 05:50:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 29.2% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending March 22, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 29.2% from a year ago

The number of homes actively for sale remains significantly higher than last year, continuing a 72-week streak of annual gains. This year-over-year inventory growth gives buyers more choices and encourages more competitive pricing among sellers. However, the inventory level is still below pre-pandemic norms, and supply constraints in many markets continue to limit buyer flexibility.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 8.2%

New listings were up 8.2% compared with this time last year, marking the 11th straight week of annual growth.

• The median list price was unchanged year-over-year

The national median list price was unchanged from a year ago, continuing a 43-week streak where prices have either remained flat or declined compared with the same time last year. Rather than signaling a turnaround, this stability suggests that prices are holding steady as the market adjusts to higher borrowing costs and a growing number of listings.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 72nd consecutive week.  

New listings have increased recently but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Median prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 02:47:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. ...

16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$165.48 (+1.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.22 (+2.8%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We might see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.