by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, down from 53.5% last month. The employment index decreased to 46.2%, from 53.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 50.8% March 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the ninth consecutive month in March, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, indicating expansion for the 55th time in 58 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In March, the Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the February figure of 53.5 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.9 percent in March, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 54.4 percent recorded in February. This is the index’s 58th consecutive month of expansion. The New Orders Index recorded a reading of 50.4 percent in March, 1.8 percentage points lower than the February figure of 52.2 percent. The Employment Index dropped into contraction territory for its first time in six months; the reading of 46.2 percent is a 7.7-percentage point decrease compared to the 53.9 percent recorded in February.
emphasis added

This was below consensus expectations.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2025 08:49:00 AM

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8.0 billion from $130.7 billion in January, revised. .

February exports were $278.5 billion, $8.0 billion more than January exports. February imports were $401.1 billion, less than $0.1 billion less than January imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports increased and imports decreased in February.

Exports were up 4.8% year-over-year; imports were up 19.7% year-over-year.

Exports have generally increased recently, and imports increased sharply. 

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China increased to $21.1 billion from $19.9 billion a year ago.  

The surge in imports in January and February happened as some importers were avoiding the coming tariffs.

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2025 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending March 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 224,000 to 224,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 223,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 07:34:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $110.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $131.4 billion in January.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for March.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 05:38:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 92. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 35 states, decreased in nine states, and remained stable in six, for a one-month diffusion index of 52. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.6 percent over the past three months and 0.2 percent in January.
emphasis added

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.

The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Source: Philly Fed.

And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. 

This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In January, 36 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 01:16:00 PM

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 403 thousand SAAR in March, down from 436 thousand in February, and down 12.1% from 459 thousand SAAR in February 2025.  

Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 10.1%.

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Perhaps heavy truck sales will be revised up, but this was somewhat weak.

As I mentioned yesterday, light vehicle sales "surged" in March to 17.77 million SAAR as some buyers rushed to beat the tariffs.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.  

Light vehicle sales were at 17.77 million SAAR in March, up 11.0% from February, and up 13.3% from March 2024.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 09:51:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

A brief excerpt:

From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Q1 Moody’s CRE Preliminary Trend Analysis

The national multifamily market has been under supply-side pressure over the past two years. Steady demand finally paused the vacancy climb after a banner year with record-level inventory growth. Average vacancy stalled at 6.3%, the highest since 2010.

Moody’s Analytics reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 6.3% in Q1 2025, unchanged from an upwardly revised 6.3% in Q4, and up from 5.8% in Q1 2024. This is the highest vacancy rate since 2010.

This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999). Note: Moody’s Analytics is just for large cities.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 08:15:00 AM

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 4.6%

“Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of 119,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 135,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 57 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Treasury yields continue to be volatile as economic uncertainty dominates markets. Most mortgage rates finished last week lower, with the 30-year fixed essentially unchanged at 6.70 percent. Last week’s level of purchase applications was its highest since the end of January, driven by a 3 percent increase in conventional purchases, while government purchase applications were down 2 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Overall purchase activity has shown year-over-year growth for more than two months as the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to increase, a positive development for the housing market despite the uncertain near-term outlook. Refinance applications were down almost 6 percent last week and remain very sensitive to rate movements, as most borrowers have mortgages with lower rates.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.70 percent from 6.71 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 9% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 26% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 5% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index declined and remains very low.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2025 08:57:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 77,000 added in February.