by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 03:19:00 PM

Some good news: Cases may be peaking, and this is the second consecutive day with over 1 million doses administered!

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 8th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since April 1st.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 360,634,287, as of a week ago 354,777,950. Average doses last week: 0.84 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	51.2%	51.1%	50.5%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	170.0	169.6	167.7	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	130,926	133,088	119,972	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	78,399	77,214	64,658	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	686	640	585	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 7 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.3%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and New Jersey at 60.2%.

The following 17 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Washington at 59.2%, New Hampshire, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa  and Illinois at 50.2%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Michigan at 49.8%, South Dakota at 48.3%, Ohio at 47.6%, Kentucky at 47.2%, Kansas at 46.9%, Arizona at 46.8%, Alaska at 46.5%, Utah at 46.5%, and Nevada at 46.4%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 11:36:00 AM

Some twitter comments from Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting:

Just surveyed 6,000+ real estate agents across country. Top themes from our 1st ever RESALE agent survey: 1) Buyer fatigue, w/rumblings of remorse. 2) Bidding wars a bit less bonkers. 3) Cash is King & ton of investors. 4) Inventory gridlock. Commentary across country to follow ...

#LosAngeles agent: “20-minute allotted home viewing time slots with offers due next day by noon, & buyers are asked to give up every contingency under the sun.”

#NYC agent: “Luxury home buyers feel the market is overpriced & have backed off.”

#Phoenix agent: “Buyers are nervous they’re overpaying. Sellers are nervous there will be a correction & they missed opportunity to list at a premium. Both sides are crippled with questions & fear.”

#Houston agent: “Some of my clients are waiting to buy due to the high cost/ bidding war. They feel that any house they purchase will be upside down in equity due to the bidding wars that are going on.”

#Boston agent: “Cash is King. More buyers coming to the table with cash for homes priced at $850K+.”

#Bridgeport CT agent: “With the Delta variant, some sellers are hoping for another round of panic buyers.”

#EastBay CA agent: “Finally slowing down, so instead of 40 offers on the homes, we are seeing 6 to 10 offers. Still selling but without the drama.”

#Tampa agent: “Can you imagine how crazy we’re going to be when Canadians are allowed to come in. Their money is burning a hole in their pocket, & they'll be headed here to Florida to spend it.”

#Chicago agent: “Every single weekend since December, I’ve been taking out 1st time buyers ($350k or less). So many offers on the table, & we get declined every single weekend. Just lost 3 more contracts yesterday.”

#Atlanta agent: “Very difficult market for 1st time buyers in $200k to $275k range. Sometimes 50 offers+ & investors are winning! Forget using any assistance programs for 1st time buyers; sellers won’t even consider the offer.”

#Nashville agent: “Some agents write 20 offers for a buyer before they win on a house.”

#Charlotte agent: “Institutional buyers are killing the first-timer.”

#StLouis agent: “Our inventory is choked to almost nothing. People can't list, knowing the lack of homes for sale. We're in gridlock!”

#Columbus OH agent: “Market sucks for FHA buyers. They have almost zero chance to get chosen when cash buyers are going $50k over asking price.”

#Louisville agent: ““All my buyers are paying $15k to $40k over asking. It's the only way to win in these bidding wars. If these people have to sell in 3-5 years due to life changes, they're going to be under water.”

#ColoradoSprings agent: “VA & FHA buyers will be shut out of the market for all intents & purposes unless they have appraisal gap protection.”

#Athens GA agent: “Hard for the average buyer or ‘little man’ to compete. Without cash reserves, buyers do not stand a chance with their offers.”

#Richmond IN agent: “People are making awesome offers to win the multiple offer war, but then trying to renegotiate at inspection time to try & make the price much less than what was accepted.”

#HotSprings AR agent: “At least 1/3 of my buyers are coming from Texas and California.”

#Kalispell MT agent: “Entire state of Montana has been overwhelmed with out-of-state buyers paying cash for properties & pushing purchase prices. Rents are also being pushed to all-time highs. Affordable homes & rentals for our workforce are a major issue.”

#Claremont NH agent: “Beginning to see some buyer pricing resistance in the last couple of weeks & inventory is growing.”

#LakeKenosha IL agent: “Buyers are not going $50k over asking price like they were a month ago.”

#Lansing MI agent: “Starting to see buyers aren’t as quick to guarantee the difference in appraisal value vs. accepted offer price. If they do, they put a limit on the amount they’re willing to pay between appraised value & accepted price.” THE END

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 11:20:00 AM

From BofA:

3Q GDP growth is currently coming in at 4.5%, leaving annual growth to slip to 5.9% this year. We think the Delta variant is a large reason for the soft patch as can be seen by the pullback in spending on leisure services. But we also have to consider the possibility of more permanent supply-side constraints and greater precautionary savings. [August 20 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3. [August 18 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.5% for 2021:Q3. News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2021:Q3 by 0.3 percentage point. [August 20 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 6.1 percent on August 18, down from 6.2 percent on August 17. [August 18 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 10:19:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of August 17th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearances Edge Slightly Higher

After dropping by more than 150,000 over the past two weeks, we once again saw active forbearance plans edge up slightly in what has become a well-established mid-month trend.

The week’s 11,000 overall increase was driven entirely by a 12,000 rise in plans among Portfolio/PLS loans and offset by a 1,000 decline in GSE forbearances. FHA/VA plan volumes held flat from the week prior.

According to Black Knight’s McDash Flash forbearance tracker, 1.75 million (3.3% of) borrowers remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans as of August 17. That population includes 1.9% of GSE, 5.8% of FHA/VA and 4.0% of portfolio-held and privately securitized mortgages.

Plan volumes are now down 110,000 (-5.9%) from the same time last month, with the rate of improvement slowing slightly in recent weeks.

Total plan starts were higher this week, primarily from a rise in re-start activity. New plan starts, though up slightly from last week, remain below the 5-week moving average.

Click on graph for larger image.

Meanwhile, plan removals hit their lowest weekly total since late May, but mainly due to the fact that review activity was low in general this past week.

Of those plans reviewed since last Tuesday, 41% resulted in exits, up from the 36% removal rate the same time last month. Activity is poised to pick up significantly with the first wave of final forbearance expirations only weeks away.

Some 200,000 plans are currently slated for review through the final two weeks of August, with approximately one-third of those reaching their final expiration based on current allowable forbearance term lengths. Volumes of final expirations will increase significantly in September and October.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 08:26:00 AM

Note: At the beginning of the pandemic, the delinquency rate increased sharply (see table below).   Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus.

From Black Knight: Black Knight: Overall Mortgage Delinquencies Edge Closer to Pre-Pandemic Levels, But 1.45M Remain Seriously Past Due as Foreclosure Moratorium Expired at End of July

• The national delinquency rate saw a 5% reduction in July and at 4.14% is now down by nearly half since May of last year

• Delinquencies have now improved in 12 of the last 14 months, with the two monthly increases being calendar-related as opposed to being indicative of worsening performance

• While overall delinquency volumes continue to edge closer to pre-pandemic levels, the number of serious delinquencies were still significantly elevated as federal foreclosure moratoria expired at the end of July

• Some 1.45 million borrowers remained 90 or more days past due – but not yet in foreclosure – entering August, more than 1 million more than at the onset of the pandemic

• Foreclosure starts remained muted in July, the final month of the foreclosure moratorium on federally backed mortgages, down 58% from the same time last year

• While the number of loans in active foreclosure fell by 5,000 to yet another record low, potential foreclosure activity in the coming months warrants close observation

• After rising in June, prepayment activity slid by 11% in July; however, low 30-year rates in recent weeks have resulted in a modest resurgence in refinance incentive which may impact August prepay numbers
emphasis added

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 5.2% in July compared to June, and decreased 40% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 4.0% in July and were down 26% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.14% in July, down from 4.37% in June.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in July to 0.26%, from 0.27% in June.

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 1,486,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 50,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	July  2021	June 2021	July 2020	July 2019
Delinquent	4.14%	4.37%	6.91%	3.46%
In Foreclosure	0.26%	0.27%	0.36%	0.49%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	2,206,000	2,320,000	3,692,000	1,807,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	140,000	145,000	190,000	258,000
Total Properties	2,346,000	2,466,000	3,881,000	2,065,000

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 06:11:00 PM

I'm gathering existing home data for many local markets, and I'm watching inventory very closely this year.

The table below shows some local market data for July.

As I noted in Some thoughts on Housing Inventory

The key for housing in 2021 will be inventory. If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in house prices. However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation.

Although inventory in these areas is down about 33% year-over-year, inventory is up 13.5% month-to-month (and up 26.5% over the last two months).  Seasonally we'd usually expect a small increase in inventory from June to July - so some of this increase is seasonal (as opposed to a shift in the market).   

It does appear inventory bottomed seasonally in March.  And inventory is still historically very low, but increasing more than just seasonal.

 

Existing Home Inventory
	Jul-21	Jun-21	Jul-20	YoY	MoM
Albuquerque	1,062	1,112	1,772	-40.1%	-4.5%
Atlanta	8,668	7,787	15,442	-43.9%	11.3%
Austin	3,294	2,265	5,309	-38.0%	45.4%
Boston	3,719	3,822	4,853	-23.4%	-2.7%
Charlotte	4,073	3,462	7,045	-42.2%	17.6%
Colorado	11,126	10,405	21,959	-49.3%	6.9%
Denver	4,056	3,122	6,449	-37.1%	29.9%
Des Moines	2,086	1,838	2,785	-25.1%	13.5%
Houston	27,268	24,225	34,364	-20.6%	12.6%
Jacksonville	4,668	4,586	7,852	-40.6%	1.8%
Las Vegas	3,669	3,029	6,387	-42.6%	21.1%
Maryland	10,164	8,550	14,685	-30.8%	18.9%
Memphis	2,514	2,242	2,938	-14.4%	12.1%
Minnesota	11,854	10,919	16,861	-29.7%	8.6%
Nashville	4,105	3,377	7,199	-43.0%	21.6%
New Hampshire	2,103	2,305	3,521	-40.3%	-8.8%
North Texas	12,363	9,747	18,470	-33.1%	26.8%
Northwest	7,948	6,358	10,259	-22.5%	25.0%
Phoenix	6,746	5,866	8,010	-15.8%	15.0%
Portland	3,180	2,722	4,133	-23.1%	16.8%
Rhode Island	2,110	1,985	2,775	-24.0%	6.3%
Sacramento	1,602	1,297	1,266	26.5%	23.5%
San Diego	3,349	3,369	5,763	-41.9%	-0.6%
Santa Clara	1,820	1,767	1,950	-6.7%	3.0%
South Carolina	12,869	11,163	21,592	-40.4%	15.3%
Total1	152,360	134,198	227,190	-32.9%	13.5%
1excluding Denver (included in Colorado)

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 03:33:00 PM

Note: Several readers have asked why their state health department data doesn't exactly match the CDC data for a given state.   Sometimes the reason is a different denominator (total population vs. 12+ for example), sometimes the reason isn't clear.  These are questions for the state health departments. This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 2nd.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 9th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since April 24th.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 359,623,380, as of a week ago 353,859,894. Average doses last week: 0.82 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	51.1%	51.0%	50.4%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	169.6	169.2	167.4	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	133,055	130,562	116,740	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	76,077	74,755	62,230	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	640	586	578	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 7 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.2%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and New Jersey at 60.1%.

The following 17 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: New Hampshire at 59.1%, Washington, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa  and Illinois at 50.1%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Michigan at 49.7%, South Dakota at 48.2%, Ohio at 47.5%, Kentucky at 47.1%, Kansas at 46.8%, Arizona at 46.6%, Alaska at 46.5%, Utah at 46.3%, and Nevada at 46.3%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 02:26:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For the Austin-Round Rock area: Central Texas Housing Market Report; July 2021

Residential home sales decreased across the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) for the first time since May 2020, according to the Austin Board of REALTORS® July 2021 Central Texas Housing Report. Despite the dip, the five-county MSA was just 445 homes shy of breaking the all-time home sales record set in July 2020.

Closed sales in July 2021 were 4,041, down 9.9% from 4,486 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 3,294, down 38.0% from 5,309 in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 45% from last month, and up 174% from the all time low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 12:46:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):

1) Overall sales were at 8,715 in July, down 15.4% from 10,303 in July 2020.

2) Active inventory was at 6,746, down 15.8% from 8,010 in July 2020.

3) Months of supply decreased to 1.24 in July from 1.26 in July 2020. This is low.

Inventory in July was up 15.0% from last month, and up 63% from the record low in February 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 11:59:00 AM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For for the entire state of Rhode Island:

Closed sales (single family and condos) in July 2021 were 1,305, down 9.3% from 1,439 in July 2020.

Active Listings (single family and condos) in July 2021 were 2,110, down 24.0% from 2,775 in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 6.3% from last month, and up 84.6% from the all time low in May 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 11:33:00 AM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.

The occupancy rate is down 8.3% compared to the same week in 2019.

From CoStar: STR: Seasonal Demand Trends Weigh Down Weekly US Hotel Occupancy

U.S. hotel occupancy and average daily rate (ADR) dipped from previous weeks, according to STR‘s latest data through August 14.

August 8-14, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 65.7% (-8.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $139.18 (+5.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $91.45 (-3.0%)

While the metrics were down week over week, comparisons with 2019 remained consistent, which is further evidence of seasonality in the data as more schools return to class and leisure demand wanes. Concern around COVID-19 cases also persists.
...
*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid - but, according to STR, is starting to "wane" seasonally.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

With solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - especially with the sharp increase in COVID pandemic cases and hospitalizations.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 10:39:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2021

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.47 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. The delinquency rate was down 91 basis points from the first quarter of 2021 and down 275 basis points from one year ago.

"Mortgage delinquencies across all loan types - conventional, FHA, and VA - reached their lowest levels since the first quarter of 2020," said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis. "The drop in the delinquency rate for FHA loans and VA loans was the largest quarterly decline for both in the history of MBA's survey dating back to 1979."
...
Walsh added, "Much of the second-quarter improvement can be traced to later-stage delinquent loans - those 90 days or past due, but not in foreclosure. In fact, the 90-day delinquency rate dropped by 72 basis points, which is another record decline in the survey. It appears that borrowers in later stages of delinquency are recovering due to several factors, including improved employment and other economic conditions, the availability of home retention workout options after forbearance, and a strong housing market that is bringing additional alternatives to distressed homeowners."

Walsh noted that foreclosure moratoria were still in place through the second quarter, resulting in the lowest foreclosure inventory recorded since 1981.

"Once the foreclosure moratoria lift, and forbearance plans expire over the course of the next several months, we expect many homeowners to take advantage of available workout options to avoid the foreclosure process," said Walsh.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  Overall delinquencies decreased in Q2.

From the MBA:

Compared to the first quarter of 2021, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate decreased 5 basis points to 1.41 percent and the 60-day delinquency rate decreased 15 basis points to 0.52 percent, both at their lowest levels in the history of the survey. The 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 72 basis points to 3.53 percent.
...
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 0.51 percent, down 3 basis points from the first quarter of 2021 and 17 basis points lower than one year ago. This is the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the fourth quarter of 1981. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the second quarter remained unchanged from last quarter at 0.04 percent.

This sharp increase last year in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further, and was at the lowest level since 1981.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 375,000 to 377,000. The 4-week moving average was 377,750, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 396,250 to 396,750.
emphasis added

This does not include the 109,379 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 103,847 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 377,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,820,000 (SA) from 2,899,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 4,877,668 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 4,820,787 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 3,786,488 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 3,852,569.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2021 09:00:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 360 thousand from 375 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 25.0, up from 21.9.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2021 05:32:00 PM

On daily deaths: Just over a month ago, the 7-day average for daily COVID deaths was around 180.  Since then, the 7-day average of daily deaths has tripled, and since deaths lag hospitalizations, it seems likely daily deaths will double again.   Be careful!

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 2nd.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 10th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 13th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 358,599,835, as of a week ago 353,205,544. Average doses last week: 0.77 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	51.0%	50.9%	50.3%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	169.2	168.9	167.1	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	130,121	128,508	114,963	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	74,602	73,099	59,800	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	554	534	520	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 6 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.1%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maryland.

The following 18 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: New Jersey at 59.9%, New Hampshire, Washington, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa  and Illinois at 50.0%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Michigan at 49.7%, South Dakota at 48.1, Ohio at 47.5%, Kentucky at 47.0%, Kansas at 46.7%, Arizona at 46.6%, Alaska at 46.4%, Utah at 46.2%, and Nevada at 46.1%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2021 03:33:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler (see important comments on inventory):

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million in July, unchanged from June’s preliminary pace and down 0.7% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY decline, reflecting this July’s lower business day count compared to last July.

Local realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that while the inventory of existing homes for sale remained low last month, inventories on the month increased by substantially more than the seasonal norm, and the YOY decline in July was significantly less than in June. What this means for the NAR’s inventory estimate for July, however, is unclear As I’ve noted before, the inventory measure in most publicly-released local realtor/MLS reports excludes listings with pending contracts, but that is not the case for most of the reports sent to the NAR (referred to as the “NAR Report!”), Since the middle of last Spring inventory measures excluding pending listings have fallen much more sharply than inventory measures including such listings, and this latter inventory measure understates the decline in the effective inventory of homes for sale over the last several months. Having said that, however, it is clear that seasonally adjusted inventories have been trending higher over the past several months.

Finally, local realtor/MLS reports suggest the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 16.1% from last July.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release July existing home sales on Monday, August 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.84 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2021 12:45:00 PM

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 27-28, 2021. Excerpt on asset purchases:

Participants discussed aspects of the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, including progress made toward the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals since the adoption of the asset purchase guidance in December 2020. They also considered the question of how asset purchases might be adjusted once economic conditions met the standards of that guidance. Participants agreed that their discussion at this meeting would be helpful background for the Committee's future decisions about modifying asset purchases. No decisions regarding future adjustments to asset purchases were made at this meeting.
...
In their discussion of considerations related to asset purchases, various participants noted that these purchases were an important part of the monetary policy toolkit and a critical aspect of the Federal Reserve's response to the economic effects of the pandemic, supporting smooth financial market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, which aided the flow of credit to households and businesses and supported the recovery. Participants discussed a broad range of labor market and inflation indicators. All participants assessed that the economy had made progress toward the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals since the adoption of the guidance on asset purchases in December. Most participants judged that the Committee's standard of "substantial further progress" toward the maximum-employment goal had not yet been met. At the same time, most participants remarked that this standard had been achieved with respect to the price-stability goal. A few participants noted, however, that the transitory nature of this year's rise in inflation, as well as the recent declines in longer-term yields and in market-based measures of inflation compensation, cast doubt on the degree of progress that had been made toward the price-stability goal since December. Looking ahead, most participants noted that, provided that the economy were to evolve broadly as they anticipated, they judged that it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year because they saw the Committee's "substantial further progress" criterion as satisfied with respect to the price-stability goal and as close to being satisfied with respect to the maximum-employment goal. Various participants commented that economic and financial conditions would likely warrant a reduction in coming months. Several others indicated, however, that a reduction in the pace of asset purchases was more likely to become appropriate early next year because they saw prevailing conditions in the labor market as not being close to meeting the Committee's "substantial further progress" standard or because of uncertainty about the degree of progress toward the price-stability goal. Participants agreed that the Committee would provide advance notice before making changes to its balance sheet policy.

Participants expressed a range of views on the appropriate pace of tapering asset purchases once economic conditions satisfied the criterion laid out in the Committee's guidance. Many participants saw potential benefits in a pace of tapering that would end net asset purchases before the conditions currently specified in the Committee's forward guidance on the federal funds rate were likely to be met. At the same time, participants indicated that the standards for raising the target range for the federal funds rate were distinct from those associated with tapering asset purchases and remarked that the timing of those actions would depend on the course of the economy. Several participants noted that an earlier start to tapering could be accompanied by more gradual reductions in the purchase pace and that such a combination could mitigate the risk of an excessive tightening in financial conditions in response to a tapering announcement.

Participants exchanged views on what the composition of asset purchases should be during the tapering process. Most participants remarked that they saw benefits in reducing the pace of net purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS proportionally in order to end both sets of purchases at the same time. These participants observed that such an approach would be consistent with the Committee's understanding that purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS had similar effects on broader financial conditions and played similar roles in the transmission of monetary policy, or that these purchases were not intended as credit allocation. Some of these participants remarked, however, that they welcomed further discussion of the appropriate composition of asset purchases during the tapering process. Several participants commented on the benefits that they saw in reducing agency MBS purchases more quickly than Treasury securities purchases, noting that the housing sector was exceptionally strong and did not need either actual or perceived support from the Federal Reserve in the form of agency MBS purchases or that such purchases could be interpreted as a type of credit allocation.

Participants commented on other factors that were relevant for their consideration of future adjustments to the pace of asset purchases. Many participants noted that, when a reduction in the pace of asset purchases became appropriate, it would be important that the Committee clearly reaffirm the absence of any mechanical link between the timing of tapering and that of an eventual increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. A few participants suggested that the Committee would need to be mindful of the risk that a tapering announcement that was perceived to be premature could bring into question the Committee's commitment to its new monetary policy framework. With respect to the effects of the pandemic, several participants indicated that they would adjust their views on the appropriate path of asset purchases if the economic effects of new strains of the virus turned out to be notably worse than currently anticipated and significantly hindered progress toward the Committee's goals.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2021 12:44:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Demand for design activity continues to expand

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) recorded its sixth consecutive positive month, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

The ABI score for July was 54.6. While this was down slightly from June’s score of 57.1, it still indicates very strong business conditions overall (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings from the prior month). Scoring for new project inquiries also declined in July but remained near its all-time high at 65.0. The score for new design contracts was essentially unchanged from June to July with a score of 58.0.

“In prior business cycles, architecture firms generally saw their project work soften quickly and then recover slowly,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “So the strength of this recovery is unprecedented. Firm leaders who have leaned into this economic upturn by reinvesting in their firms by hiring staff and upgrading their technology, will likely have a better year than those that anticipated a slower recovery.”
...
• Regional averages: Midwest (58.3); West (56.0); South (54.6); Northeast (54.1)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (58.4); institutional (55.4); multi-family residential (54.7); mixed practice (54.4)
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 54.6 in July, down from 57.1 in June. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index had been below 50 for eleven consecutive months, but has been solidly positive for the last six months.  

The eleven months of decline represented a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through most of 2021 (This usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months), however we might see a pickup in CRE investment towards the end of the 2021 and into 2022.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2021 10:36:00 AM

The BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing 166,000 fewer payroll jobs as of March 2021. The final revision will be published when the January 2022 employment report is released in February 2022. Usually the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate.

The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records. From the BLS:

In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2022 with the publication of the January 2022 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For National CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus one-tenth of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2021 total nonfarm employment of -166,000 (-0.1 percent).
emphasis added

Using the preliminary benchmark estimate, this means that payroll employment in March 2021 was 166,000 lower than originally estimated. In February 2022, the payroll numbers will be revised down to reflect the final estimate. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2020).

Construction was revised down by 44,000 jobs, and manufacturing revised down by 39,000 jobs.

This preliminary estimate showed 421,000 fewer private sector jobs, and 255,000 more government jobs (as of March 2021).

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2021 10:29:00 AM

Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.534 Million Annual Rate in July

Total housing starts in July were above expectations, however starts in May and June were revised up slightly

Single family starts increased in July, and were up 12% year-over-year. Starts declined at the beginning of the pandemic, and then increased due to strong demand.

The volatile multi-family sector is down 16% year-over-year.

The housing starts report showed total starts were down 7.0% in July compared to the previous month, and total starts were up 2.5% year-over-year compared to July 2020.

The first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2020 (blue) and 2021 (red). 

Click on graph for larger image.

Starts were up 2.5% in July compared to July 2020.  The year-over-year comparison are more difficult starting in the second half of 2021.

In 2020, starts were off to a strong start before the pandemic, and with low interest rates, and little competing existing home inventory, starts finished 2020 strong.  

Starts were solid in the first half of 2021.

The second graph shows starts under construction, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Red is single family units. Currently there are 711 thousand single family units under construction (NSA). This is the highest level since 2006.

Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 686 thousand multi-family units under construction.  Last month, at 691 thousand units, was the most since 1974.

Combined, there are 1.397 million units under construction. This is the most since July 2006.