by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2009 01:52:00 PM

“I’m really scared of what could happen, because I bought property here. If I can’t pay it off, I was told I could end up in debtors’ prison.”
Sofia, a 34-year-old expatriate.

Last week I posted a story on "skips" in Dubai - expatriates fleeing home rather than risk jail for defaulting on loans. Below is another story on Dubai from the NY Times.

First, here is a video on the Dubai real estate crash (hat tip James):



From the NY Times: Laid-Off Foreigners Flee as Dubai Spirals Down

With Dubai’s economy in free fall, newspapers have reported that more than 3,000 cars sit abandoned in the parking lot at the Dubai Airport, left by fleeing, debt-ridden foreigners (who could in fact be imprisoned if they failed to pay their bills).
...
No one knows how bad things have become, though it is clear that tens of thousands have left, real estate prices have crashed and scores of Dubai’s major construction projects have been suspended or canceled. But with the government unwilling to provide data, rumors are bound to flourish, damaging confidence and further undermining the economy.

Instead of moving toward greater transparency, the emirates seem to be moving in the other direction. A new draft media law would make it a crime to damage the country’s reputation or economy, punishable by fines of up to 1 million dirhams (about $272,000). Some say it is already having a chilling effect on reporting about the crisis.
...
[M]any expatriates here talk about Dubai as though it were a con game all along. Lurid rumors spread quickly: the Palm Jumeira, an artificial island that is one of this city’s trademark developments, is said to be sinking, and when you turn the faucets in the hotels built atop it, only cockroaches come out.

It could be worse, at least the U.S. allows reporters (and bloggers!) to report on the crisis. And imagine a debtors' prison ... it would be filling up pretty quickly now. Maybe building all those prisons would add a little stimulus to the economy (just kidding of course).

by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2009 01:00:00 PM

From Eric Dash at the NY Times: Disposing of Assets of Failed Banks Tests F.D.I.C.

... The F.D.I.C. faces tough choices ... every day as it struggles to manage $15 billion worth of loans and property left from failed banks. If still-to-be-sold assets from IndyMac Bancorp of California, whose demise last year was the fourth-largest bank failure, are included, the number jumps to $40 billion.

The F.D.I.C. inherited the collection of loans and property after the failure of 25 banks in 2008, compared to just three in 2007. Thirteen more have failed this year, including four on Friday night, and no one doubts that more are on the way. The F.D.I.C., which insures bank deposits and ultimately has responsibility for liquidating failed banks, is selling hundreds of millions of dollars worth of loans through eBay-like auction sites.

DebtX of Boston and First Financial Network of Oklahoma City, for instance, sell loans at auction to investors who typically pay 5 cents to 85 cents for each dollar of outstanding principal, according to Bliss A, Morris, First Financial’s president. It is unloading hundreds of houses across the country at bargain basement prices. In November, Lula Smith, 86, of Kansas City, Mo., bought a two-bedroom house across the street from her home for $4,000, one-tenth of its value two years ago.

There is much more in the article ... and many more failures coming.

by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2009 11:48:00 AM

From the WSJ: GM to Offer Two Choices: Bankruptcy or More Aid

General Motors Corp., nearing a federally imposed deadline to present a restructuring plan, will offer the government two costly alternatives: commit billions more in bailout money to fund the company's operations, or provide financial backing as part of a bankruptcy filing...

GM will argue it needs the additional government funds to stay out of bankruptcy court, people familiar with the matter said. At the same time, the company -- which previously had dismissed suggestions that it might need to file for bankruptcy -- has moved closer to such a prospect.

It looks unlikely that GM will have a plan ready by Tuesday, and will ask for an extension. No word from Chrysler, but a bankruptcy has to be likely.

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2009 11:57:00 PM

Office Space Available: 12 Months Free Rent, Warren, MI (Detroit)

Photo credit: MS

Now if they'd just offer a one year lease with 12 months free rent on a beach front house in Hawaii ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2009 08:24:00 PM

From the FDIC: Washington Trust Bank, Spokane, Washington, Acquires All of the Deposits of Pinnacle Bank, Beaverton, Oregon

Pinnacle Bank, Beaverton, Oregon, was closed today by the Oregon Division of Finance and Corporate Securities, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Washington Trust Bank, Spokane, Washington, to assume all of the deposits of Pinnacle Bank.
....
As of December 31, 2008, Pinnacle Bank had total assets of approximately $73 million and total deposits of $64 million. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, including those from brokers, Washington Trust Bank agreed to purchase approximately $72 million in assets at a discount of $7.6 million. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $12.1 million. Washington Trust Bank's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund compared to alternatives. Pinnacle Bank is the thirteenth FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Oregon since Far West, Federal Savings Bank, Portland, was closed on May 23, 1991.

Four down today.

Haiku from Soylent Green is People:

Failure Quinella....
Thirteen on Thirteen: unique?
Horizon: dark....bleak?

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2009 07:16:00 PM

From the FDIC: The Carlinville National Bank, Carlinville, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company, Pittsfield, Illinois

Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company, Pittsfield, Illinois, was closed today by the Division of Banking, Illinois Department of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with The Carlinville National Bank, Carlinville, Illinois, to assume all of the deposits of Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company.
...
As of December 31, 2008, Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company had total assets of approximately $271.8 million and total deposits of $234.4 million. The Carlinville National Bank will pay the FDIC a premium of 1.75 percent.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $100 million. The Carlinville National Bank's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund compared to alternatives. Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company is the twelfth bank to fail in the nation this year. The last bank to fail in Illinois was National Bank of Commerce, Berkeley, on January 16, 2009.

Three down today ... more to come (probably).

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2009 06:31:00 PM

From the FDIC: TIB Bank, Naples, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, Cape Coral, Florida

Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, Cape Coral, Florida, was closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with TIB Bank, Naples, Florida, to assume all of the deposits of Riverside Bank.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $201.5 million. TIB Bank's acquisition of all of the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund compared to alternatives. Riverside Bank is the eleventh bank to fail in the nation this year. The last bank to fail in Florida was Ocala National Bank on January 30, 2009.

That makes 2 today.

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2009 05:44:00 PM

From the FDIC: Heritage Bank, Wood River, Nebraska, Assumes All the Deposits of Sherman County Bank, Loup City, Nebraska

Sherman County Bank, Loup City, Nebraska, was closed today by the Nebraska Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Heritage Bank, Wood River, Nebraska, to assume all of the deposits of Sherman County Bank.
...
As of February 12, 2009, Sherman County Bank had total assets of approximately $129.8 million and total deposits of $85.1 million. Heritage Bank will pay the FDIC a premium of six percent. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of Sherman County Bank, Heritage Bank agreed to purchase approximately $21.8 million in assets, comprised mainly of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $28.0 million. Heritage Bank's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund compared to alternatives. Sherman County Bank is the tenth bank to fail in the nation this year. The last institution to fail in Nebraska was Equitable Savings and Loan, Columbus, on February 16, 1990.

It is Friday!

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2009 05:18:00 PM

From Freddie Mac: FREDDIE MAC EXTENDS MORATORIUM ON FORECLOSURE SALES

Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) today announced it is immediately suspending all foreclosure sales involving occupied single family and 2-4 unit properties with Freddie Mac-owned mortgages through March 6, 2009. The suspension does not apply to vacant properties.

The extension will provide servicers with more time to help troubled borrowers find an alternative to foreclosure.

Freddie Mac gives lenders servicing its mortgages broad authority to provide forbearance to borrowers facing financial difficulties, and permanent rate reductions, mortgage term extensions, forbearance of principal or other modifications to borrowers who are already delinquent.

From Fannie Mae: Fannie Mae Suspends Foreclosure Sales Pending Administration Announcement

Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) today announced it is suspending all foreclosure sales and evictions of occupied properties through March 6 in anticipation of the Administration's national foreclosure prevention and loan modification program.

The company had previously put in place a suspension of foreclosure sales through January and had previously suspended all evictions through the end of February. In addition, the company adopted a national Real Estate Owned (REO) Rental Policy that allows renters in Fannie Mae-owned foreclosed properties to remain in their homes or receive transitional financial assistance should they choose to seek new housing.

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2009 04:16:00 PM

Note: RevPAR is revenue per available room.

From Bloomberg: Wyndham Plunges After Announcing New Stock Sale, Quarterly Loss

Revpar, a measure of hotel room rates and occupancy, will drop 6 percent to 10 percent this year, more than 3 percent to 6 percent decline Wyndham forecast in December, [Chief Executive Officer Stephen] Holmes said. The company franchises Super 8, Travelodge and Days Inn hotels.
...
“People trade down to a value purchase as times get tougher,” said Holmes, 52. “Hotel owners need our brands during difficult times even more than they do during good times.”

Hotel revenue fell 3 percent to $170 million in the fourth quarter as Revpar tumbled 9.2 percent. Excluding currency changes, Revpar declined 9.3 percent in the U.S. and 1.6 percent internationally.

“We do not have a heavy concentration of luxury or upper- scale properties in large urban markets where you’re seeing a lot of the more dramatic, double-digit declines in Revpar,” Holmes said.

Look at these key points:

Their forecast changed significantly. In December they were forecasting RevPAR to decline 3% to 6% in 2009 - now they are expecting a 6% to 10% decline.

RevPAR fell off a cliff in December (9.2% decline).

Wyndham offers an inferior good and they believe they are outperforming other hotels.

Back in November PricewaterhouseCoopers forecast a significant decline in RevPAR in 2009 (see: Forecast: 2009 Hotel Occupancy Rate to be Lowest Since 1971) and based on the Wyndman numbers that was probably too optimistic.