by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2010 08:53:00 AM

Here is an interesting podcast from NPR's Planet Money: To Stay Or Walk Away

NPR's Alex Blumberg and Chana Joffe-Walt interview Arizona attorney Mary Kinsley. She describes how a couple years ago homeowners would call her, in tears, trying desperately to save their homes from foreclosure.

Now homeowners call, their voices calm, and ask her the best way to strategically default - and in some cases how to get the banks to take back the houses they've been delinquent on for over a year. Pretty amazing. She thinks this is just the beginning of "walking away".

P.S. I appreciate the mention!

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2010 10:29:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List underwent significant changes since last as a net 15 institutions were added. Twenty-six institutions were added while 11 institutions were removed because of failure. Please note that the six failures were removed along with the five last Friday. Usually, failures are removed with a one-week lag.

After these changes, the list stands at 599 institutions with aggregate assets of $322.5 billion, up from 584 institutions with assets of $305.3 billion last week.

Among the eleven failures are First Regional Bank ($2.2 billion); Charter Bank ($1.25 billion); Community Bank & Trust ($1.2 billion); Columbia River Bank ($1.1 billion); Florida Community Bank ($875 million); and First National Bank of Georgia ($833 million).

The 26 institutions added this week have aggregate assets of $25.9 billion. Notable among the additions are Flagstar Bank, FSB, Troy, MI ($14.8 billion); The Stillwater National Bank and Trust Company, Stillwater, OK ($2.7 billion); Guaranty Bank and Trust Company, Denver, CO ($2.1 billion); Fireside Bank, Pleasanton, CA ($1.0 billion); Darby Bank & Trust Co., Vidalia, GA ($909 million); and LibertyBank, Eugene, OR ($856 million).

The list is compiled from regulator press releases or from public news sources (see Enforcement Action Type link for source). The FDIC data is released monthly with a delay, and the Fed and OTC data is more timely. The OCC data is a little lagged. Credit: surferdude808.

See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

For a full screen version of the table click here.

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)



Class: from FDIC

The FDIC assigns classification codes indicating an institution's charter type (commercial bank, savings bank, or savings association), its chartering agent (state or federal government), its Federal Reserve membership status (member or nonmember), and its primary federal regulator (state-chartered institutions are subject to both federal and state supervision). These codes are:

N National chartered commercial bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

SM State charter Fed member commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve

NM State charter Fed nonmember commercial bank supervised by the FDIC

SA State or federal charter savings association supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision

SB State charter savings bank supervised by the FDIC

Cert: This is the certificate number assigned by the FDIC used to identify institutions and for the issuance of insurance certificates. Click on the number and the Institution Directory (ID) system "will provide the last demographic and financial data filed by the selected institution".

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2010 09:04:00 PM

One five by two nine
The first month of twenty ten
Not a record....yet.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Columbia State Bank, Tacoma, Washington, Assumes All of the Deposits of American Marine Bank, Bainbridge Island, Washington

American Marine Bank, Bainbridge Island, Washington, was closed today by the Washington Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, American Marine Bank had approximately $373.2 million in total assets and $308.5 million in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $58.9 million. ... American Marine Bank is the 15th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Washington. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Evergreen Bank, Seattle, on January 22, 2010.

That makes six.

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2010 07:51:00 PM

L.A. bank failure,
Gobbled up by East coast bank.
Zero near partners?
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Raleigh, North Carolina, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Regional Bank, Los Angeles, California

First Regional Bank, Los Angeles, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, First Regional Bank had approximately $2.18 billion in total assets and $1.87 billion in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $825.5 million. ... First Regional Bank is the 14th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Imperial Capital Bank, La Jolla, on December 18, 2009.

Five down, at almost a $2 billion cost to DIF.

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2010 07:03:00 PM

Georgian Bank and Trust
"Community" is spot on.
Loss, absorbed by all.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: SCBT, N.A., Orangeburg, South Carolina, Assumes All of the Deposits of Community Bank and Trust, Cornelia, Georgia

Community Bank and Trust, Cornelia, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Community Bank and Trust had approximately $1.21 billion in total assets and $1.11 billion in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $354.5 million. .... Community Bank and Trust is the 13th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was First National Bank of Georgia, Carrollton, earlier today.

Four down and about $1 billion in losses today ...

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2010 06:23:00 PM

Winter's icy blast
Frail green shoots die each weeks end
Three more banks are hushed
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Community & Southern Bank, Carrollton, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of First National Bank of Georgia, Carrollton, Georgia

First National Bank of Georgia, Carrollton, Georgia, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, First National Bank of Georgia had approximately $832.6 million in total assets and $757.9 million in total deposits....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $260.4 million. ... First National Bank of Georgia is the tenth FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Rockbridge Commercial Bank, Atlanta, on December 18, 2009.

From the FDIC: Premier American Bank, National Association, Miami Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of Florida Community Bank, Immokalee, Florida

Florida Community Bank, Immokalee, Florida, was closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Florida Community Bank had approximately $875.5 million in total assets and $795.5 million in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $352.6 million. .... Florida Community Bank is the 11th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Premier American Bank, Miami, on January 22, 2010.

From the FDIC: United Valley Bank, Cavalier, North Dakota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Marshall Bank, National Association, Hallock, Minnesota

Marshall Bank, National Association, Hallock, Minnesota, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Marshall Bank, N.A. had approximately $59.9 million in total assets and $54.7 million in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $4.1 million. ... Marshall Bank, National Association is the 12th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Minnesota. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was St. Stephen State Bank, St. Stephen, on January 15, 2010.

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2010 04:15:00 PM

Since it is the end of January ... here is a market update:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990.

The dashed line is the closing price today. The S&P 500 was first at this level in March 1998; almost 12 years ago.

The market is off 6.6% from the recent peak - not even a correction yet, but keep your Dow 10K hats at the ready (the Dow is down to 10,067)!

The S&P 500 is up 59% from the bottom in 2009 (397 points), and still off 31% from the peak (491 points below the max).


The second graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2010 03:21:00 PM

This is an update to a graph I posted in early 2009 ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the real GDP declines from the prior peak for post WWII recessions.

The recent recession was the worst since WWII (the peak decline was 3.83% in Q2 2009).

Even after the strong GDP growth in Q4 (due to inventory changes), current GDP is still 1.9% below the prior peak in real terms. If the recovery is sluggish - as I expect - it will take several more quarters to return to the pre-recession peak in real GDP.

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2010 01:24:00 PM

Note: This index is based on year-over-year performance, and the headline index might be slow to recognize a pickup in business.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.

Note: Any reading below 100 shows contraction for this index.

This is the highest level in almost two years, but the current situation index still suggests contraction in the restaurant industry.

From the National Restaurant Association (NRA): December Restaurant Performance Index Rose to Highest Level in Nearly Two Years

[T]he Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) ... stood at 98.7 in December, up 0.9 percent from November and its strongest level in nearly two years.

“The RPI’s strong gain in December was the result of broad-based improvements among several index components,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the National Restaurant Association. “Although restaurant operators continued to report a net decline in same-store sales and customer traffic, both registered their strongest performances since the summer of 2008.”

“Along with a solid improvement among the current situation indicators, restaurant operators are increasingly optimistic about industry growth in the months ahead,” Riehle added. “More than a third of restaurant operators expect to their sales to improve in six months, the highest level in more than two years.”

... The full report is available online. ...

... Index values above 100 indicate that key industry indicators are in a period of expansion, and index values below 100 represent a period of contraction for key industry indicators. Despite the solid improvement in December, the RPI remained below 100 for the 26th consecutive month.

The Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures), stood at 97.3 in December – up a strong 1.4 percent from November and its highest level since August 2008. However, December still represented the 28th consecutive month below 100, which signifies contraction in the current situation indicators.
...
Restaurant operators also reported an improving customer traffic performance in December. Thirty percent of restaurant operators reported an increase in customer traffic between December 2008 and December 2009, up from just 21 percent who reported higher customer traffic in November. Forty-seven percent of operators reported a traffic decline in December, down from 62 percent who reported lower traffic in November.

Although restaurant operators reported stronger sales and traffic results in December, capital spending activity continued to drop off. ...
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2010 10:57:00 AM

Any analysis of the Q4 GDP report has to start with the change in private inventories. This change contributed a majority of the increase in GDP, and annualized Q4 GDP growth would have been 2.3% without the transitory increase from inventory changes.

Unfortunately - although expected - the two leading sectors, residential investment (RI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE), both slowed in Q4.

PCE slowed from 2.8% annualized growth in Q3 to 2.0% in Q4.

RI slowed from 18.9% in Q3 to just 5.7% in Q4.

Note: for more on leading and lagging sectors, see Business Cycle: Temporal Order and Q1 GDP Report: The Good News.

It is not a surprise that both key leading sectors are struggling. The personal saving rate increased slightly to 4.6% in Q4, and I expect the saving rate to increase over the next year or two to around 8% - as households repair their balance sheets - and that will be a constant drag on PCE.

And there is no reason to expect a sustained increase in RI until the excess housing inventory is absorbed. In fact, based on recent reports of housing starts and new home sales, there is a good chance that residential investment will be a slight drag on GDP in Q1 2010.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graphs shows Residential investment (RI) as a percent of GDP since 1947.

RI had declined for 14 consecutive quarters before the increase in Q3 2009. The Q4 report puts RI as a percent of GDP at just over 2.5%, barely above the record low - since WWII - set in Q2 2009.

Notice that RI usually recovers very quickly coming out of a recession. This time RI is moving sideways - not a good sign for a robust recovery in 2010.

The second graph shows non-residential investment as a percent of GDP.

Business investment in equipment and software increased 13.3% (annualized). This is a good sign, but continued investment probably depends on increases in underlying demand.

Investment in non-residential structures was only off 15.4% (annualized) and will probably be revised down (this has happened for the last few quarters). I expect non-residential investment in structures to continue to decline sharply over the next several quarters. In previous downturns the economy recovered long before nonresidential investment in structures recovered - and that will probably be true again this time.

When the supplemental data is released, I'll post graphs of investment in retail, offices, and hotels, and a breakdown of residential investment.

The transitory boost from inventory changes is frequently a great kick start to the economy at the beginning of a recovery - as long as the leading sectors (PCE and RI) are also picking up. This report has to be viewed as concerning ... and is reminiscent of Q1 1981 and Q1 2002 ... both examples of inventory changes making large contributions to GDP, but underlying growth remained weak.