by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2010 07:50:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Greece Says Aid Call Would Send ‘Worst Signal’ as Bonds Slide

“The worst possible signal which we could send out is one calling for outside help,” [Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou] said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Athens yesterday. “We will tackle the deficit,” he said, adding that tax revenues in January exceeded forecasts “by some percentage points.”

Maybe El Erian was right and it is a game of chicken:

"Europe has become a huge game of chicken, whereby the Greeks are waiting for help from the outside and donors are waiting for Greece to take a step forward."

Or maybe Greece will just muddle through as Martin Wolfe suggested a couple weeks ago in the Financial Times: The Greek tragedy deserves a global audience . Wolfe discussed three possibilities: Greece leaves the eurozone, Greece toughs it out, or Greece defaults - and concludes:

Given the horrendous difficulty of all alternatives, I am sure the effort will be made to tough it out for as long as possible. That will also be the case elsewhere. All will be forced to accept lengthy recessions.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2010 04:00:00 PM

From March 29, 1999: A CNBC Promo ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner). His comments:

This chart ... shifts the point of alignment ... to the bear bottom in the Oil Crisis and Tech Crash, the first major low in the 1929 Dow, and the March 9th closing low for our current Financial Crisis.

As the chart illustrates, the S&P 500 lows in 1974 and 2002 marked the beginnings of sustained recoveries. The Dow low in 1929 failed 11 months later.

The second graph shows daily closing prices for the Dow since Jan 1999. The dashed line is 10,000.

The Dow has crossed the 10,000 level many times, and my Dow 10K hat is worn out.

Of course there is nothing magical about 10K - it is just a round number.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2010 02:20:00 PM

From MarketWatch: Portugal, Greece, Spain default worries rise

The cost of insuring Spanish and Portuguese government debt against default via credit default swaps hit new records Monday, while the cost of insurance for Greek debt also rose, according to CMA DataVision.

Whether or not this concern is justified, it shows investors are nervous.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2010 11:27:00 AM

From Fitch: New Year, No Improvement as U.S. Prime Jumbo RMBS Delinquencies Approach 10%

U.S. prime jumbo loan performance continued to weaken in January as serious delinquencies rose for the 32nd consecutive month, according to Fitch Ratings in the latest edition of Performance Metrics.

"The new year has brought no relief from declining jumbo loan performance," said Managing Director Vincent Barberio. "The trend line for delinquencies indicates the 10% level could be reached as early as next month."

Although prime jumbo loan delinquencies began to rise in the second quarter of 2007, they accelerated in 2009 nearly tripling over the course of the year. ...

Overall, prime jumbo RMBS 60+ days delinquencies rose to 9.6% for January (up from 9.2% for December 2009). ...
emphasis added

Another all time record high ... we're all subprime now!

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2010 09:04:00 AM

Quote of the day on Greece ...

"Europe has become a huge game of chicken, whereby the Greeks are waiting for help from the outside and donors are waiting for Greece to take a step forward."
Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco, Feb 8, 2010

Scroll down for a summary of last week and a look ahead (or click here).

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2010 12:54:00 AM

The Federal Government is shut down in D.C. Monday because of snowmageddon!

Also dig out your Dow 10K hats again ... the U.S. futures are off a little tonight:

Futures from CNBC show the Dow fair value at 9,968.

Here are the futures from barchart.com

The Asian markets are mostly off tonight (Nikkei off 1.0%)

Best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2010 09:51:00 PM

From the WSJ: Housing Rebound in Canada Spurs Talk of a New Bubble

Canada's housing recovery has been so rapid that some here are worrying about a bubble.

Last Wednesday, a housing-price index for Canada's six biggest cities posted its seventh straight monthly gain, showing home prices in November are now back to their prerecession peak. Another broader measure shows the average home price in 2009 hitting a record.
...
Canadian banks typically reset adjustable-rate mortgages every few years, those who are buying now at low rates will likely see increases soon. ... The Bank of Canada warned in its December report that if interest rates increase as expected, by mid-2012 about 9% of Canadian households could have so much debt that they'd be "financially vulnerable."

Just something to consider ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2010 03:41:00 PM

First, via NPR: The Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor

The Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor holds that if a team from the old NFL wins, the market will rise in that year; if a team from the old AFL wins, the market will fall.

Both the Colts and the Saints qualify as "old NFL", so that is bad news for the bears!

Second, from Bloomberg: Greenspan Says Unemployment Not Likely to Fall Soon

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said it is “very difficult” to see U.S. unemployment falling soon and that an economic recovery is “going to be a slow, trudging thing.” He also expressed concern about falling stock prices.

Uh oh, it makes me nervous when I agree with Greenspan, so maybe the recovery will be "V-shaped" and unemployment will fall quickly!

Just joking of course - I still think the recovery will be sluggish and unemployment will stay elevated for some time.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2010 11:59:00 AM

People will be watching the so called PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) this week for any updates on a possible sovereign debt crisis. And don't forget Eastern Europe and the Baltic states too, especially Latvia.

The Economist has a preview on Greece:

TAX-COLLECTORS and customs officers in Greece have already walked out in protest against planned austerity measures by the government. On Wednesday February 10th it will be the turn of civil servants, doctors and other state workers. A much bigger strike is expected later in the month and past experience suggests that protests could turn nasty. Yet unless Greece gets a grip on its public finances, the government will struggle to finance its loans. Similar anxieties are emerging elsewhere in Europe.

On Tuesday, the NFIB Small Business Optimism for January will be released, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) survey for December, and Wholesale Inventories report for December.

On Wednesday, the Census Bureau will release the December Trade Balance report (consensus is for a trade deficit of about $36 billion, the same as last month) and the MBA will release the weekly Mortgage Applications report. Also Wednesday will be a busy day for Fed Speak.

On Thursday, the Retail Sales report for January will be released. Consensus is for a 0.4% increase (Bloomberg consensus 0.3%), and 0.6% ex-autos. The weekly initial unemployment claims report will be closely watched, and the consensus is for a decline to under 460,000. Business inventories will also be released on Thursday.

Consumer sentiment will be released on Friday, and the West Coast port traffic will probably also be released this week - and of course more bank failures.

And a summary of last week ...

Employment Report: 20K Jobs Lost, 9.7% Unemployment Rate

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 20,000 in January and the unemployment rate decreased to 9.7%. The economy has lost almost 4.0 million jobs over the last year, and 8.42 million jobs since the beginning of the current employment recession.

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

For the current employment recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only the early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

This graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.

The Employment-Population ratio ticked up slightly to 58.4% in January, after plunging since the start of the recession. This is about the same level as in 1983.

Note: the above graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The fourth graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more (blue). The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce.

According to the BLS, there are a record 6.31 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.1% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948)

The number of long term unemployed, and the dramatic plunge in Employment-Population ratio, are two of the key stories of this recession.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 10.8 Million SAAR in January

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for January (red, light vehicle sales of 10.78 million SAAR from AutoData Corp).

This is the lowest level since October and below the levels of last July. Obviously sales were boosted significantly by the "Cash-for-clunkers" program in August and some in July.

The current level of sales are still very low, and are still below the lowest point for the '90/'91 recession (even with a larger population).

Homeownership Rate Declines to Early 2000 Level

The homeownership rate declined to 67.2% in Q4 and is now at the levels of early 2000.

Note: graph starts at 60% to better show the change.

The Census report also showed the homeowner vacancy rate increase to 2.7%, and the rental vacancy rate was at 10.7% (see graphs here).

This data suggests there are about 1.8 million excess vacant housing units in the U.S. (above the normal levels). For analysis, see: Housing Stock and Flow

Construction Spending Declines in December

Residential construction spending decreased in December, and nonresidential spending increased slightly.

Private residential construction spending is now 61.5% below the peak of early 2006.

Private non-residential construction spending is 22.0% below the peak of October 2008.

Other Economic Stories ...

From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: No Aid or Rebound in Sight, More Homeowners Just Walk Away

From the Fed: Banks Cease Tightening Standards, Loan Demand Weakens Further

From Dina ElBoghdady and Dan Keating at the WaPo: Rising FHA default rate foreshadows a crush of foreclosures

Q4: Office, Mall and Lodging Investment

From the Institute for Supply Management: ISM Manufacturing Index Shows Expansion in January

From the Institute for Supply Management: ISM Non-Manufacturing Shows Slight Expansion in January

From the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Market Conditions Steady; Sales Volume and Equity Financing Improve, According to NMHC Quarterly Survey

December PCE and Saving Rate

From the American Bankruptcy Institute: January Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Decrease 10 Percent from December

Unofficial Problem Bank Lists Increases to 605

Best wishes to all.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2010 08:37:00 AM

From Kenneth Harney in the LA Times: 'Cash-in' refis growing in popularity

In Freddie Mac's latest quarterly survey of refinancings, 33% of homeowners put cash into the deal to lower their mortgage balances, the highest percentage ever. By contrast, only 27% of refinancers took cash out -- the lowest percentage on record.

... there has been a steady rise since the fourth quarter of 2007, when cash-ins hit 9%, up from just 5% of all refis earlier that year.

By early 2009, they accounted for 13% of refinancings, then grew to 18% in the third quarter. After that, cash-ins jumped to 33% in the final three months of 2009.

Harney discusses two reasons for "cash-in" refis: 1) Paying down the mortgage can get the borrower a better loan and avoid PMI, and 2) with interest rates so low on money market funds and CDs, paying down the mortgage offers a higher return.

This "cash-in" has shown up in the Fed's Flow of Funds data.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, using the Flow of Funds (and BEA data) compared to the Kennedy-Greenspan method.

For Q3 2009, the Net Equity Extraction was minus $91 billion, or negative 3.3% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI). Q4 data will be released on March 11th.

This decline was partially because of debt cancellation per foreclosure sales, and some from modifications, like Wells Fargo's principal reduction program, and partially due to homeowners paying down their mortgages as opposed to borrowing more.

Maybe "mortgage burning parties" will make a comeback too.

Note: Mortgage burning link is to an audio of NPR story last year: Mortgage-Burning Parties Almost Extinct