by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2010 06:46:00 PM

As part of the new home sales report, the Census Bureau reported that the median price for new homes fell to the lowest level since 2003.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the median and average new home price.

Some analysts pointed to the slight recovery in the median and average new home prices last year and into 2010 as evidence of the beginning of a recovery.

However in August, new home prices fell to the lowest level since 2003.

The second graph shows the percent of new home sales by price.

Over 52% of all home sales were under $200K in August - the highest percentage since 2003. (update: nemo notes the the median is over $200K in the first graph - this is an issue with rounding).

And 82.6% of new home sales were under $300K - the highest percentage under $300K since August 2002. Only 17.4% of new homes sales were over $300K in August.

To summarize: Not only are new home sales near record lows (slightly above the record in May 2010 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis), but the median prices are back to 2003 levels. And there are very few homes being sold above $300K.

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2010 02:45:00 PM

Just a Saturday visit to Dubai ...

From Richard Spencer at the Telegraph: Dubai may have to knock down buildings constructed during boom (ht Eyal)

The report [from property firm Jones Lang LaSalle] said that between the end of 2007 and the first half of 2010, the amount of office space available in the city grew by 140 per cent – more than double – to 48 million square feet. But the increase in the space occupied was only 70 per cent.

There were still new tenants moving in, but with 19 million square feet coming available this year, and more in 2011 and 2012, the vacancy rate would increase further, from 38 per cent now to over 50 per cent outside the central business district.

Talk about over building! Demolishing completed buildings probably doesn't make sense (it is the desert and the buildings will last a long time with little maintenance). Maybe they can convert the buildings to other uses, but they already have too many high rise condos too.

Just imagine the impact on unemployment as these buildings are completed over the next couple of years. (update: most construction related jobs are held by immigrants - and I was referring to the unemployment of those workers).

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2010 11:31:00 AM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for September 24, 2010.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List underwent significant changes this week from failures and the FDIC releasing its enforcement actions for August 2010. The list finished the week at 872 institutions with assets of $422.4 billion, up from 854 institutions with assets of $416 billion last week.

Changes this week include three removals and 21 additions. The removals are the two failures -- Haven Trust Bank Florida ($149 million) and North County Bank ($289 million) and one from an unassisted merger -- Sunrise Bank of Atlanta ($50 million).

Most notable among the additions are Lydian Private Bank, Palm Beach, FL ($1.96 billion); Universal Bank, West Covina, CA ($537 million); TruPoint Bank, Grundy, VA ($484 million); First Guaranty Bank and Trust Company of Jacksonville, Jacksonville, FL ($460 million); and First South Bank, Spartanburg, SC ($456 million Ticker: FSBS).

Other changes include Prompt Corrective Action Orders issued against Peoples State Bank ($445 million), LandMark Bank of Florida ($320 million), First Arizona Savings, a FSB ($272 million), American Patriot Bank ($108 million), and Idaho First Bank ($82 million).

The list just keeps growing.

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2010 08:41:00 AM

An interesting back story in the WSJ: On the Secret Committee to Save the Euro, a Dangerous Divide

Two months after Lehman Brothers collapsed in the fall of 2008, a small group of European leaders set up a secret task force ... Its mission: Devise a plan to head off a default by a country in the 16-nation euro zone.

And a year later - when Greece was near default - the committee hadn't agreed on a strategy. And that lead to the frantic last minute scramble to piece together a bailout for Greece - with Germany calling the shots.

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2010 10:46:00 PM

A few stories:

From the WSJ: Bernanke: Efforts Failed to Produce Recovery With 'Sufficient Vigor'. CR Note: unless there are upside surprises in the employment report (to be released on Oct 8th) or the advance Q3 GDP report (released on Oct 29th), I think Bernanke has prepared the way to QE2.

From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: GMAC’s Errors Leave Foreclosures in Question

From Christine Hauser at the NY Times: Bank Losses Lead to Drop in Credit Card Debt

From NPR Planet Money: Toxie, Planet Money's pet toxic asset, died this week.

When we bought Toxie , in January of this year, she seemed like a great deal. We paid $1,000. That was 99 percent less than she cost dring the housing boom.

Every month, when homeowners paid their mortgages, we got a check. We thought we'd make back our investment before she died. But in the end, we collected only $449.

And on the four housing reports this week: "Been down so long it looks like up to me", (book by Richard Fariña)

New Home Sales: Unchanged from July, Worst August on Record

Existing Home Sales at 4.1 million SAAR, 11.6 months of supply

Single Family Housing Starts increase slightly in August

NAHB Builder Confidence stuck at low level in September

I'll have a weekly summary on Sunday.

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2010 09:07:00 PM

From the FDIC: Whidbey Island Bank, Coupeville, Washington, Assumes All of the Deposits of North County Bank, Arlington, Washington

As of June 30, 2010, North County Bank had approximately $288.8 million in total assets and $276.1 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $72.8 million. ... North County Bank is the 127th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the ninth in Washington.

Just 2 this week? The unofficial problem bank list will be increasing ...

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2010 05:29:00 PM

Sweet slice of Haven
Too big of a bite was had
Indigestible
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: First Southern Bank, Boca Raton, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of Haven Trust Bank Florida, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

As of June 30, 2010, Haven Trust Bank Florida had approximately $148.6 million in total assets and $133.6 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $31.9 million. ... Haven Trust Bank Florida is the 126th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the twenty-fourth in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Horizon Bank, Bradenton, on September 10, 2010..

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2010 04:51:00 PM

Press Release: NCUA Adopts Reforms for Corporate Credit Union System, Protects Consumers

The National Credit Union Administration today assumed control of three undercapitalized corporate credit unions, announced a plan to isolate the impaired assets in the corporate credit union system, and finalized a set of stronger regulations - key elements in its efforts to resolve the financial challenges facing corporate credit unions without disrupting consumer service.
...
Setting the plan into motion required conservatorship today of three additional corporate credit unions that are not viable: Members United Corporate Federal Credit Union of Warrenville, Illinois; Southwest Corporate Federal Credit Union of Plano, Texas; and Constitution Corporate Federal Credit Union of Wallingford, Connecticut. In 2009, U.S. Central Corporate Federal Credit Union of Lenexa, Kansas, and Western Corporate Federal Credit Union of San Dimas, California, were also placed into conservatorship.

The WSJ reports:

Friday's moves include the seizure of three wholesale credit unions and an unusual plan by government officials to manage $50 billion of troubled assets inherited from failed institutions. To help fund the rescue, the National Credit Union Administration plans to issue $30 billion to $35 billion in government-guaranteed bonds, backed by the shaky mortgage-related assets.

These "corporate credit unions" don't serve the general public - they are owned by the "natural person" credit unions - and all the "natural person" money held at these corporate credit unions was guaranteed early last year. But this is another $50 billion in "troubled" assets that will need to be worked through.

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2010 03:23:00 PM

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported that vehicle miles driven in June were up 0.8% compared to July 2009:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by 0.8% (2.2 billion vehicle miles) for July 2010 as compared with July 2009.

Cumulative Travel for 2010 changed by 0.2% (2.9 billion vehicle miles).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven.

On a rolling 12 month basis, vehicle miles driven are mostly moving sideways. Miles driven are still 1.8% below the peak in 2007.

Back in 2008, vehicle miles turned strongly negative on a "month over the same month of the prior year" basis, and that was one of the pieces of data that helped me correctly predict oil prices would decline sharply in the 2nd half of 2008. So far we haven't seen a sharp decline in vehicle miles - but we also haven't seen a strong increase.

Early next year this will be the longest period with the rolling 12-months miles driven below the previous peak since the DOT started tracking this series. The current longest slump followed the 1979 oil crisis and lasted for 40 months (starting in 1979 and lasting through the recession of the early '80s).

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2010 01:31:00 PM

By request, here is an update - this graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through August. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship has been fairly steady back to the '60s. Then along came the housing bubble and bust, and the "distressing gap" appeared (due partially to distressed sales).

Note: it is important to note that existing home sales are counted when transaction are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Initially the gap was caused by the flood of distressed sales. This kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders couldn't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.

The two spikes in existing home sales were due primarily to the first time homebuyer tax credit (the initial credit last year, followed by the extension to April 30th / close by June 30th). There were also two smaller bumps for new home sales related to the tax credit.

Since new home sales are reported when contracts are signed, the 2nd spike for new home sales was in April and then sales collapsed in May. The 2nd spike for existing home sales was in May and June, and then existing home sales collapsed in July.

I expect that eventually this gap will be closed. However that will only happen after the huge overhang of existing inventory (especially distressed inventory) is significantly reduced.