by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2012 04:23:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image.

I haven't posted these graphs in a few months. The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990 (this excludes dividends).

The dashed line is the closing price today. The S&P 500 was first at this level in April 1999; over 13 years ago.

The second graph (click on graph for larger image) from Doug Short shows the S&P 500 since the 2007 high ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2012 01:05:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 July

In year-over-year comparisons for the week, occupancy ended the week with a 3.7-percent decrease to 61.4 percent, average daily rate increased 3.0 percent to US$101.67 and revenue per available room ended the week virtually flat with a 0.8-percent decrease to US$62.37.

The decline in occupancy last week was due to the timing of July 4th (and probably impacted by the mid-week holiday). The 4-week average is still above last year, and is close to the pre-recession levels.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2012, yellow is for 2011, blue is "normal" and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.

Looking forward, leisure travel usually increases over the summer months, and occupancy rates will probably average 70% for the next couple of months. It looks like 2012 will have higher occupancy than 2011, and be close to the pre-recession median. But it will be sometime before investment increases again.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2012 09:55:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July declined to 72.0, down from the June reading of 73.2.

This was below the consensus forecast of 73.5 and the lowest level this year. Overall sentiment is still weak - probably due to a combination of the high unemployment rate and the sluggish economy.

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2012 08:46:00 AM

From MarketWatch: U.S. wholesale prices rise 0.1% in June

U.S. wholesale prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in June as higher costs for food, light trucks and appliances offset another decline in energy costs, the Labor Department said Friday. Excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, core wholesale prices rose a slightly faster 0.2%.
...
Over the past year wholesale prices have risen an unadjusted 0.7%.

Press release from JPMorgan: JPMORGAN CHASE REPORTS SECOND-QUARTER 2012 NET INCOME OF $5.0 BILLION, OR $1.21 PER SHARE, ON REVENUE OF $22.9 BILLION

"$4.4 billion pretax loss ($0.69 per share after-tax reduction in earnings) from CIO trading losses and $1.0 billion pretax benefit ($0.16 per share after-tax increase in earnings) from securities gains in CIO’s investment securities portfolio in Corporate"

Much more at FT/alphaville: US Markets Live, Jamie beaches the Whale special edition and 'CIO Risk Management was ineffective in dealing with Synthetic Credit Portfolio’

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 09:17:00 PM

• At 7:00 AM ET, J.P. Morgan will report second Quarter 2012 Financial Results. The press release and conference call will provide an update on the CIO losses. ft.com/alphaville will be following the conference call on US Markets Live starting at 7:30 AM.

The WSJ Deal Journal will also be blogging the 2 hour conference call (2 hour call?). From the WSJ: J.P. Morgan Earnings: What to Watch

The bank is so full of news that Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon, along with his CFO Doug Braunstein, will host a 2-hour conference call tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m., shortly after the results hit.

WSJ has reported the bank expects the loss to be about $5 billion, and many analysts are looking for that number too.

Analysts expect total revenue to fall 20% to $21.9 billion for the bank.

I've seen CIO loss estimates as high as $6.5 billion.

• At 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for June will be released. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

• At 9:55 AM, the preliminary Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index will be released. The consensus is for sentiment to increase slightly to 73.5 from 73.2 in June.

For the economic question contest:

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 05:47:00 PM

Two foreclosure reports: one national predicting an increase in distressed sales; the other regional (west) predicting less foreclosure inventory. Both could be correct ... (Update: the reports have conflicting data for California - on that one is probably wrong!)

RealtyTrac released their midyear foreclosure report this morning: 1 Million Properties With Foreclosure Filings in First Half of 2012

Overall foreclosure activity was down in the second quarter, driven primarily by a drop in bank repossessions (REOs), but 311,010 properties started the foreclosure process during the quarter, a 9 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 6 percent increase from the second quarter of 2011 — the first year-over-year increase in quarterly foreclosure starts since the fourth quarter of 2009.

A total of 31 states posted year-over-year increases in foreclosure starts in the second quarter — 17 judicial foreclosure states and 14 non-judicial foreclosure states.

"Additional scrutiny on how lenders and servicers process foreclosures, along with aggressive foreclosure prevention efforts by the federal government and several state governments, continue to keep a lid on the foreclosure problem at a national level,” said Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac. “Still, foreclosure starts began boiling over in more markets in the first half of the year, particularly in the second quarter, when rising foreclosure starts spread from primarily judicial foreclosure states in the first quarter to more than half of all non-judicial foreclosure states in the second quarter.

“Lenders and servicers are slowly but surely catching up with the backlog of delinquent loans that under normal circumstances would have started the foreclosure process last year, and that catching up is why the average time to complete the foreclosure process started to level off or decrease in some states in the second quarter,” Moore added. “The increases in foreclosure starts in the first half of the year will likely translate into more short sales and bank repossessions in the second half of the year and into next year.”

And from Foreclosure Radar (just a few states): Foreclosure Inventory Continues To Decline

June 2012 Foreclosure Sales were significantly down in the three largest foreclosure states in our coverage area. California Foreclosure Sales were down 13.4 percent over last month, and down 48.8 percent vs. June 2011. Arizona Foreclosure Sales were down 18.5 percent over last month, and down 42.1 percent vs. June 2011. Nevada Foreclosure Sales were down 14.6 percent over last month, and down 72.1 percent vs. June 2011 driven by the new regulation that took effect in October 2011. In addition, Foreclosure Filings are flat to down in all states in our coverage area, both on a month over month basis and vs. previous year. Arizona Notice of Sales were down 27.7 percent over last month, Nevada Notice of Defaults were down 22.7 percent over last month, and California Notice of Defaults were basically flat, being down 0.9 percent over last month.

... with the declining level of Foreclosure Sales the inventory will continue to decrease. In California, banks take on average 272 days to resell properties they take back at auction, thus, Realtors, investors, and homebuyers should brace themselves for significantly less inventory in next years' selling season.

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 03:05:00 PM

From CoreLogic: CORELOGIC® Reports Negative Equity Decreases in First Quarter of 2012

CoreLogic ... today released new data showing that 11.4 million, or 23.7 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the first quarter of 2012. This is down from 12.1 million properties, or 25.2 percent, in the fourth quarter of 2011. An additional 2.3 million borrowers had less than 5 percent equity, referred to as near-negative equity, in the first quarter.

Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for 28.5 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide in the first quarter, down from 30.1 percent in Q4 2011. More than 700,000 households regained a positive equity position in the Q1 2012. Nationally, negative equity decreased from $742 billion in Q4 2011 to $691 billion in the first quarter, a fall of $51 billion in large part due to an improvement in house price levels.

“In the first quarter of 2012, rebounding home prices, a healthier balance of real estate supply and demand, and a slowing share of distressed sales activity helped to reduce the negative equity share,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This is a meaningful improvement that is driven by quickly improving outlooks in some of the hardest hit markets. While the overall stagnating economic recovery will likely slow housing market recovery in the second half of this year, reducing the number of underwater households is an important step toward reducing future mortgage default risk.”

Note: CoreLogic revised their methodology, and they provided revised historical data here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the break down of negative equity by state. Note: Data not available for some states. From CoreLogic:

"Nevada had the highest negative equity percentage with 61 percent of all mortgaged properties underwater, followed by Florida (45 percent), Arizona (43 percent), Georgia (37 percent) and Michigan (35 percent). These top five states combined have an average negative equity share of 44.5 percent, while the remaining states have a combined average negative equity share of 15.9 percent."

The second graph shows the historical negative equity share using the new CoreLogic methodology.

More from CoreLogic: "As of Q1 2012, there were 1.9 million borrowers who were only 5 percent underwater. If home prices continue increasing over the next year, these borrowers could move out of a negative equity position."

This is some improvement, but there are still 11.4 residential properties with negative equity.

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 02:12:00 PM

Another house price index, this one is based on prices per sq ft ...

From Glenn Kelman at Redfin: June Prices Increased 3.0%, But Sales Slowing

Across 19 major metropolitan markets, June prices increased 3.0% year over year, and 2.6% month over month. The number of homes for sale declined 25.3% from June 2011 to June 2012, and by 2.4% since May. Sales increased 4.3% over last year, but actually slipped 1.1% since May. The percentage of listings that sold within 14 days of their debut remained steady since May at 28.5%.
...
Inventory has been slow to rise because some home-owners can’t sell; their home is worth less than they owe the bank. Many others more don’t want to sell, because they can rent their house for more each month than their bank payment, and because they believe prices may improve. With vacancies are on the decline and rents rising, for many sellers it just makes more sense to rent out the home rather than sell.

There is limited historical data for this index. In 2011, sales were fairly weak in the April through July period, and a 4.3% increase in year-over-year sales for June would be less than the approximately 10% year-over-year increase in sales NAR reported for April and May of this year.

The reported 25.3% decrease in inventory is similar to other sources and is a key driver for the small year-over-year price increase.

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 11:15:00 AM

From CNBC: Warren Buffett: US Economic Growth Slowing, Europe Slipping 'Pretty Fast'

In a live CNBC interview from Sun Valley with Becky Quick of "Squawk Box," Buffett says the general economy's growth has "tempered down" so that it is now "more or less flat."

He does, however, see a "noticeable" pickup for residential housing from a "very low base" that "doesn't amount to a whole lot yet, but it's getting better."

For months, Buffett had been seeing general U.S. economic growth held back by a weak residential housing market.

Buffett also says things are beginning to "slip pretty fast" in Europe, especially over the past six weeks.

Warren Buffett (my transcript):

"I have a different story this time. For a couple of years, I've been telling you that everything except residential housing was improving at a moderate rate, not crawling, but not galloping either. But that residential housing was flat lining.

The last two months have been sort of the opposite. The general economy in the US has been more or less flat; the growth has tempered down. But residential housing - we're seeing a pickup - it is noticeable, it is from a very low base, and it doesn't amount to a whole lot yet - but it is getting better. You have a flip-flop on that."
...
The rest of the economy is slowing down - it is not heading downward - but it is not growing at the rate that it was earlier."

His comments on Europe were very negative.

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 08:40:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending July 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 350,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 376,000. The 4-week moving average was 376,500, a decrease of 9,750 from the previous week's revised average of 386,250.

The previous week was revised up from 374,000 to 376,000.

From MarketWatch: "onetime factors such as fewer auto-sector layoffs than normal likely caused the sharp decline, the Labor Department said Thursday".

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined to 376,500.

The sharp decline was probably due to onetime factors, plus this included the holiday week.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

This was well below the consensus forecast of 375,000. With the holiday week and onetime factors, it is difficult to tell if there is any improvement - but this is the lowest level for the four week average since May.


All current Employment Graphs