by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2012 10:35:00 AM

Earlier ... The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) increased 6 points in July to 35. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises Six Points in July

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose six points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for July, released today. This is the largest one-month gain recorded by the index in nearly a decade, and brings the HMI to its highest point since March of 2007.

"Builder confidence increased by solid margins in every region of the country in July as views of current sales conditions, prospects for future sales and traffic of prospective buyers all improved,” said Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla.
...
Every HMI component recorded gains in July. The components gauging current sales conditions and traffic of prospective buyers each rose six points, to 37 and 29, respectively, while the component gauging sales expectations for the next six months rose 11 points to 44.

Likewise, every region posted HMI gains in July. The Northeast registered an eight-point gain to 36, while the Midwest gained three points to 34, the South gained five points to 32 and the West gained 12 points to 44.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the July release for the HMI and the May data for starts (June housing starts will be released tomorrow). A reading of 35 was well above the consensus.

Housing Investment and Construction Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2012 10:00:00 AM

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testimony "Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress" Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate:

Reflecting its concerns about the slow pace of progress in reducing unemployment and the downside risks to the economic outlook, the Committee made clear at its June meeting that it is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

Here is the CNBC feed.

Here is the C-Span Link

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2012 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in June after having declined 0.2 percent in May. In the manufacturing sector, output advanced 0.7 percent in June and reversed a decrease of 0.7 percent in May. In the second quarter of 2012, manufacturing output rose at an annual rate of 1.4 percent, a marked deceleration from its strong gain of 9.8 percent in the first quarter. The largest contribution to the increase in the second quarter came from motor vehicles and parts, which climbed 18.2 percent; excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines advanced 0.7 percent in June, while the output of utilities decreased 1.9 percent. For the quarter, however, the output of mines fell at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, while the output of utilities rose 14.9 percent. At 97.4 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in June was 4.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.2 percentage point in June to 78.9 percent, a rate 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.1 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 78.9% is still 1.4 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession levels of 80.6% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in June to 97.4. This is 16.7% above the recession low, but still 3.3% below the pre-recession peak.

The consensus is for Industrial Production to increase 0.3% in June, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.2%. The increase IP was slightly above expectations, but Capacity Utilization was below expectations.

All current manufacturing graphs

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2012 08:34:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
...
The energy index fell 1.4 percent as the gasoline index declined for the third month in a row; other energy indexes were mixed. The food index rose 0.2 percent after being unchanged last month as the index for food at home turned up in June.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June, the fourth consecutive such increase.

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was at the consensus forecast of unchanged for CPI and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2012 06:00:00 AM

From Realtor.com: June 2012 Real Estate Data

The total US for-sale inventory of single family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops (SFH/CTHCOPS) remained at historic lows with 1.88 million units for sale in June, down -19% compared to a year ago, and -39% below its peak of 3.10 million units in September, 2007 when Realtor.com began monitoring these markets.

The median age of the inventory dropped to 84 days, which is down -9.67% on an annual basis.

With some notable exceptions, the majority of housing markets showed signs of continued improvement in June. On a year-over-year basis, the for-sale inventory declined in all but 2 (Shreveport, LA and Philadelphia, PA) of the 146 markets covered by Realtor.com, while list prices increased in 101 markets, held steady in 26 markets, and declined in just 19 markets. This pattern is in stark contrast to trends observed in June 2011, when median list prices were down -1% or more on an annual basis in 79 of the 146 markets covered by Realtor.com.

Realtor.com also reports that inventory was up 0.5% from the May level.

The NAR is scheduled to report June existing home sales and inventory this Thursday, July 19th.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2012 10:09:00 PM

This will be a busy day for economic data, but first from Tim Duy: A Slap in The Face

The retail sales number should be a slap in the face for any FOMC members sitting on the fence. ... Note ... that the 2010 slowdown in sales did not foreshadow a recession. But it did foreshadow the Jackson Hole speech and QE2. With that in mind, I would expect Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to acknowledge the deceleration of activity when he marches up to Capitol Hill this week. And such acknowledgement would be a signal that more easing is on its way.

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for June will be released. The consensus is for headline CPI to be unchanged in June and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June. The consensus is for Industrial Production to increase 0.3% in June, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.2%.

• At 10:00 AM, the July NAHB homebuilder confidence survey will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 30, up slightly from 29 in June.


• Also at 10:00 AM, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will provide the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Bernanke's comments will be analyzed closely for any comments about QE3, although he hasn't used this forum in the past to hint at further action.

For the July contest:

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2012 07:34:00 PM

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for June. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic is up about 0.4%, and outbound traffic is up about 0.5% compared to May.

In general, inbound and outbound traffic has been moving sideways recently.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

For the month of June, loaded outbound traffic was up 4.8% compared to June 2011, and loaded inbound traffic was up 6.3% compared to June 2011.

This suggests imports from Asia might be up in June, and exports to Asia up too.

All current trade graphs

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2012 04:32:00 PM

From Alan Zibel at the WSJ: ‘Underwater’ Refis Grow; Critics Not Satisfied

The number of homeowners refinancing their mortgages under a revamped federal program grew in May, but critics are still pressing a federal regulator to do more.

For the first five months of 2012, more than 78,000 homeowners who owe more than 105% of their property’s value have refinanced using the government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP. That was up from about 60,000 in all of 2011, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in a report Monday.

This is a significant increase in refinance activity, but still somewhat below expectations. However the automated system wasn't released until the end of March - and there were some issues with that system - so maybe there more HARP refinances over the rest of 2012.

This table shows the number of HARP refinances by LTV through May of this year compared to all of 2011. Clearly there has been an increase in activity.

HARP Activity
	2012, Through May	All of 2011	Since Inception
Total HARP	297,103	400,024	1,318,954
LTV >80% -105%	218,830	340,033	1,150,065
LTV >105% -125%	67,155	59,991	157,771
LTV >125%	11,118	0	11,118

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2012 01:35:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Today’s weak retail sales report leaves Q2 GDP tracking a meager 1.1%. We expect the economy to remain weak through the rest of the year with growth of only 1.3% in Q3 and 1.0% in Q4. This translates to GDP growth of only 1.3% Q4/Q4, significantly below the Fed’s forecast of 1.9-2.4%.

Via Ezra Klein:

Macro advisers: Q2 GDP tracking 1%

Nouriel Roubini:

US Q2 GDP growth looks like 1.2% at best ... Q3 growth could be well below 1% given June sales report and unintended inventory build up. US at stall speed

Goldman has lowered their forecast to 1.1% for Q2.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2012 11:27:00 AM

This was released earlier ... from the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The general business conditions index rose five points to 7.4. New orders, however, declined, as that index slipped into negative territory for the first time since November 2011, falling five points to -2.7.
...
Employment levels climbed higher, with the employment index rising six points to 18.5, while the average workweek index fell three points to zero.
...
Indexes for the six-month outlook generally remained favorable, but held at levels below those seen earlier this year. The future general business conditions index fell three points to 20.2, with 37 percent of respondents expecting improved conditions in the months ahead and 17 percent anticipating a worsening.

This was the first regional manufacturing surveys released for July. The general business conditions index was slightly better than expected although new orders were down. The employment index was the highest since March.

The Philly Fed index was especially weak in June, and the July index will be released on Thursday.