by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2014 06:13:00 PM

As of the October BLS report, the economy has added 2.225 million private sector jobs, and 2.285 million total jobs in 2014.

To be the best year since 1999, the economy needs to add an additional 176 thousand private sector jobs (probably happen in November), and 222 thousand total nonfarm jobs.

Also interesting: For the first time since 2008, the public sector will add jobs in 2014.  State and local governments started adding a few jobs last year, but austerity has been ongoing at the Federal level.  According to the WSJ The Federal Government Now Employs the Fewest People Since 1966

Not since July 1966 has the federal government’s workforce been so small. ... But that’s only the raw numbers! As a share of the total workforce ... data going back to 1939 would show no point where the federal government’s share of employment was so low.

In the last 75 years (when the BLS started tracking the data), the public sector (non-military) shed jobs in 12 years. Three of those years were at the end of WWII, two in the early '80s, and the last five consecutive years (unprecedented streak since the Great Depression).

Here is a table of the annual change in total nonfarm and private sector payrolls jobs since 1999.  The last three years have been near the best since 1999 (2005 was the best year for total nonfarm, and 2011 the best for private jobs).

It seems very likely that 2014 will be the best year since 1999 for both total nonfarm and private sector employment.

Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s)
	Total, Nonfarm	Private
1999	3,177	2,716
2000	1,946	1,682
2001	-1,735	-2,286
2002	-508	-741
2003	105	147
2004	2,033	1,886
2005	2,506	2,320
2006	2,085	1,876
2007	1,140	852
2008	-3,576	-3,756
2009	-5,087	-5,013
2010	1,058	1,277
2011	2,083	2,400
2012	2,236	2,294
2013	2,331	2,365
20141	2,742	2,670
1 2014 is current pace annualized (through October).

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2014 12:57:00 PM

This is an update to a previous post through October.

Earlier this year, I posted some demographic data for the U.S., see: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group and The Future is still Bright!

I pointed out that "even without the financial crisis we would have expected some slowdown in growth this decade (just based on demographics). The good news is that will change soon."

Changes in demographics are an important determinant of economic growth, and although most people focus on the aging of the "baby boomer" generation, the movement of younger cohorts into the prime working age is another key story in coming years. Here is a graph of the prime working age population (this is population, not the labor force) from 1948 through October 2014.

Click on graph for larger image.

There was a huge surge in the prime working age population in the '70s, '80s and '90s - and the prime age population has been mostly flat recently (even declined a little).

The prime working age labor force grew even quicker than the population in the '70s and '80s due to the increase in participation of women. In fact, the prime working age labor force was increasing 3%+ per year in the '80s!

So when we compare economic growth to the '70s, '80, or 90's we have to remember this difference in demographics (the '60s saw solid economic growth as near-prime age groups increased sharply).

The prime working age population peaked in 2007, and appears to have bottomed at the end of 2012.  The good news is the prime working age group has started to grow again, and should be growing solidly by 2020 - and this should boost economic activity in the years ahead.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2014 04:52:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 7, 2014.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Surprising these days to have a bank failure in three out of the past four weeks, but that is just what happened. Along with the failure there were two other removals this week that push the Unofficial Problem Bank List count down to 419 institutions with assets of $131.9 billion. A year ago, the list held 661 institutions with assets of $228.8 billion.

Frontier Bank, FSB, Palm Desert, CA ($88 million) became the 17th failure this year and 40th institution headquartered in California to fail since the on-set of the Great Recession. Other removals include an action termination at Carver Federal Savings Bank, New York, NY ($648 million) and a change in control and recapitalization of Michigan Commerce Bank, Ann Arbor, MI ($922 million).

Next week should be quiet as the OCC likely will not provide an update on its latest enforcement action activity until November 21st.

CR Note: The first unofficial problem bank list was published in August 2009 with 389 institutions. The list peaked at 1,002 institutions on June 10, 2011, and is now down to 419.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2014 11:50:00 AM

The key economic report this week is October retail sales on Friday.

The MBA is expected to release the Q3 National Delinquency Survey on Friday.

----- Monday, November 10th -----
At 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the new monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).


----- Tuesday, November 11th -----
The is a federal/bank holiday. The Bond market will be closed in observance of the Veterans Day. The stock market will be open for trading.

----- Wednesday, November 12th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.

----- Thursday, November 13th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 275 thousand from 278 thousand.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in August to 4.835 million from 4.605 million in July.

The number of job openings (yellow) were up 23% year-over-year. Quits were up 5% year-over-year.

2:00 PM ET: The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for October.

----- Friday, November 14th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992 through September 2014. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.3% from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.3% from September 2013.

The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.2% in October, and to increase 0.2% ex-autos.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for November). The consensus is for a reading of 87.5, up from 86.9 in October.

10:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Q3 2014 National Delinquency Survey (NDS).

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for September.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2014 08:01:00 AM

Update: On Nov 8th I added the MBA forecast.

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.

The NAR released their forecast yesterday: Home Sales Expected to Improve in 2015, but Some Headwinds Still Remain

[Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®] expects the national median existing-home price to rise 4 percent both next year and in 2016. ... Housing starts are forecast to hit 1 million this year and reach 1.3 million in 2015, which is still below the underlying demand of about 1.5 million, but should gradually normalize as lenders open their credit box more to builders. New-home sales are likely to total 440,000 in 2014, and increase to 620,000 next year.

Note: Wells Fargo updated their forecast (slight changes).

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. In 2014, new home sales will be around 440 thousand, and total housing starts will be close to 1 million.  No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high).

In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts.

Note: Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013. In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays were the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows a few forecasts for 2015 (I'll update these in further in December).

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: October 2014

From NAHB: Single-Family Production Poised to Take Off in 2015

I don't have Moody's Analytics' forecast, but Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics said today "that single-family starts could be closing in on 1 million units by the end of 2015 and multifamily production could go as high as 500,000 units."  That seems too high.

I haven't worked up a forecast yet for 2015.

Housing Forecasts for 2015
	New Home Sales (000s)	Single Family Starts (000s)	Total Starts (000s)	House Prices1
Fannie Mae	523	783	1,170	4.9%2
Merrill Lynch	557		1,200	3.6%
MBA	503	728	1,108	3.0%2
NAHB	547	802	1,158
NAR	620		1,300	4%3
Wells Fargo	530	770	1,160	3.3%
Zillow				3.0%4
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise 2FHFA Purchase-Only Index 3NAR Median Home price 4Zillow Home Value Index, Sept 2014 to Sept 2015

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2014 08:15:00 PM

From the FDIC: Bank of Southern California, N.A., San Diego, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Frontier Bank, FSB, d/b/a El Paseo Bank, Palm Desert, California

As of June 30, 2014, Frontier Bank, FSB had approximately $86.4 million in total assets and $82.1 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $4.7 million. ... Frontier Bank, FSB is the 17th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Palm Desert National Bank, Palm Desert, on April 27, 2012.

It feels like a Friday!

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2014 04:38:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in October were up 2.5% year-over-year.  Note: This is the first year-over-year sales increase this year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down about 10% to 27.7% of total sales. Non-cash sales were up 8.4% year-over-year.

3) Active inventory is now up 5.7% year-over-year - and at about the same level as in October 2011 (about when prices bottomed in Phoenix).  Note: This is the smallest year-over-year inventory increase this year, so the inventory build may be slowing.

More inventory (a theme this year) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.

According to Case-Shiller, Phoenix house prices bottomed in August 2011 (mostly flat for all of 2011), and then increased 23% in 2012, and another 15% in 2013.  Those large increases were probably due to investor buying, low inventory and some bounce back from the steep price declines in 2007 through 2010.  Now, with more inventory, price increases have flattened out in 2014.

As an example, the Phoenix Case-Shiller index through August shows prices up less than 1% in 2014, and the Zillow index shows Phoenix prices flat over the last year!

October Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Oct-08	5,384	---	1,348	25.0%	55,7031	---
Oct-09	8,121	50.8%	2,688	33.1%	39,312	-29.4%
Oct-10	6,591	-18.8%	2,800	42.5%	45,252	15.1%
Oct-11	7,561	14.7%	3,336	44.1%	27,266	-39.7%
Oct-12	7,020	-7.2%	3,081	43.9%	22,702	-16.7%
Oct-13	6,038	-14.0%	1,910	31.6%	26,267	15.7%
Oct-14	6,186	2.5%	1,712	27.7%	27,760	5.7%
1 October 2008 probably includes pending listings

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2014 02:49:00 PM

I enjoy economics, but I hate politics.

We all have different values and interests, so it is natural that we disagree on some public policy.   An open and honest debate would be healthy.  But politics is negative, destructive and dishonest.

Yesterday the Speaker warned the President not to "poison the well" of goodwill by taking action on immigration. In almost the next sentence, the Speaker poisoned the well by saying the House will vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act (a vote that will go nowhere).  No matter what someone thinks of both issues, the speaker's words were not helpful for constructive debate.

The Speaker isn't stupid. Being hypocritical is bad policy, but probably good politics - and that is sad.   A more positive approach would be to offer to work on areas of agreement for both immigration and healthcare (the areas of agreement would be small - but that approach would be positive).

And politics really bothers me when we discuss the economy.

If I wrote that Obama's 2nd term is on pace to be one of the best for private sector job creation in history - better than Reagan, and only trailing Clinton - that might surprise a few people. But it is accurate.

Here is a table for private sector jobs. The top two private sector terms were both under President Clinton.  Currently Obama's 2nd term is on pace for the third best term for these Presidents.

Term	Private Sector Jobs Added (000s)
Carter	9,041
Reagan 1	5,360
Reagan 2	9,357
GHW Bush	1,510
Clinton 1	10,885
Clinton 2	10,070
GW Bush 1	-841
GW Bush 2	379
Obama 1	1,998
Obama 2	4,3711
121 months into 2nd term: 9,991 pace.

It is correct that the economy is larger now than in the '80s, but demographics are less favorable now.  The recent job creation is happening with a decline in the prime working age population, whereas in the '80s the prime working age population was growing 3% per year!  This is unrelated to policy - this is just demographics.

Note: Some good news looking forward is the prime working age population is growing again.

Total employment did increase more in Reagan's 2nd term, but that was because of a huge surge in public employment. If the Speaker, yesterday, mentioned a push for 2nd term Reagan era public sector hiring, I missed it (sorry for sarcasm).

Here is a table for public sector jobs. Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama's first term, and increased the most during Reagan's 2nd term.  Note: From the WSJ: The Federal Government Now Employs the Fewest People Since 1966

Term	Public Sector Jobs Added (000s)
Carter	1,304
Reagan 1	-24
Reagan 2	1,438
GHW Bush	1,127
Clinton 1	692
Clinton 2	1,242
GW Bush 1	900
GW Bush 2	844
Obama 1	-713
Obama 2	481
121 months into 2nd term, 110 pace

Overall the economy and job growth is doing pretty well right now (especially considering demographics).  One key weakness is wage growth, and I expect wage growth to increase as the unemployment rate continues to decline. If we had seen better policy over the last several years - like more infrastructure investment - than we'd probably already be seeing wage growth. Failing to make these supply side investments during a period with low borrowing costs and high unemployment, was probably one of the key policy failures of the last four years.

Usually both parties support infrastructure investment, but apparently it is good politics for Congress to oppose even the best of policies when the opposing party holds the presidency.  And that is depressing.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2014 10:00:00 AM

Earlier: October Employment Report: 214,000 Jobs, 5.8% Unemployment Rate

This was another solid report with 214,000 jobs added, and job gains for August and September were revised up.  This was the ninth consecutive month over 200,000, and an all time record 49th consecutive month of job gains.

As always we shouldn't read too much into one month of data, but at the current pace (through October), the economy will add 2.74 million jobs this year (2.67 million private sector jobs). Right now 2014 is on pace to be the best year for both total and private sector job growth since 1999.

A few other positives:  the unemployment rate declined to 5.8% (the lowest level since July 2008), U-6 declined to 11.5% (an alternative measure for labor underutilization) and was at the lowest level since 2008, the number of part time workers for economic reasons declined slightly (lowest since October 2008).  And the number of long term unemployed declined to the lowest level since January 2009.

Also seasonal retail hiring was at a record level. See the first graph below - this is a good sign for the holiday season ("Watch what they do, not what they say")

Unfortunately wage growth is still subdued.   From the BLS: "Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents to $24.57 in October. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0 percent. In October, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $20.70."

With the unemployment rate at 5.8%, there is still little upward pressure on wages. Wages should pick up as the unemployment rate falls over the next couple of years, but with the currently low inflation and little wage pressure, the Fed will likely remain patient.

A few more numbers:

Total employment increased 214,000 from September to October and is now 1.3 million above the previous peak.  Total employment is up 10.0 million from the employment recession low.

Private payroll employment increased 209,000 from September to October, and private employment is now 1.8 million above the previous peak (the unprecedented large number of government layoffs has held back total employment). Private employment is up 10.6 million from the recession low.

Through the first ten months of 2014, the economy has added 2,285,000 payroll jobs - up from 1,973,000 added during the same period in 2013.   My expectation at the beginning of the year was the economy would add between 2.4 and 2.7 million payroll jobs this year.  That still looks about right.

Seasonal Retail Hiring

According to the BLS employment report, retailers hired seasonal workers in October at the highest level since 1999.

Click on graph for larger image.

Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then seasonal hiring has increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.

Retailers hired 180.6 thousand workers (NSA) net in October. This is the all time record (just above 1996).  Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

This suggests retailers are optimistic about the holiday season.  Note: There is a decent correlation between October seasonal retail hiring and holiday retail sales.

Year-over-year Change in Employment

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October, the year-over-year change was 2.64 million jobs, and it appears the pace of hiring is increasing.

Right now it looks like 2014 will be the best year since 1999 for both total nonfarm and private sector employment growth.

Employment-Population Ratio, 25 to 54 years old

Since the overall participation rate declined recently due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, an important graph is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

In the earlier period the participation rate for this group was trending up as women joined the labor force. Since the early '90s, the participation rate moved more sideways, with a downward drift starting around '00 - and with ups and downs related to the business cycle.

The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in October to 80.8% from 80.7% in September, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 76.9% from 76.7%.  As the recovery continues, I expect the participation rate for this group to increase a little - although the participation rate has been trending down for this group since the late '90s.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was about unchanged in October at 7.0 million.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 7.027 million from 7.103 million in September.  This suggests slack still in the labor market.  These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 11.5% in October from 11.8% in September.

This is the lowest level for U-6 since September 2008.

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 2.916 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was down from 2.954 in September. This is trending down, but is still very high.

This is the lowest level for long term unemployed since January 2009.

State and Local Government

This graph shows total state and government payroll employment since January 2007. State and local governments lost jobs for four straight years. (Note: Scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change.)

In October 2014, state and local governments added 8,000 jobs.  State and local government employment is now up 146,000 from the bottom, but still 598,000 below the peak.

Clearly state and local employment is now increasing.  And Federal government layoffs have slowed (payroll decreased by 3 thousand in October), but Federal employment is still down 25,000 for the year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2014 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +180,000 to +203,000, and the change for September was revised from +248,000 to +256,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 31,000 more than previously reported.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed to show the underlying payroll changes).

Employment is now up 2.64 million year-over-year.

Total employment is now 1.3 million above the pre-recession peak.

The second graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased in October to 62.8% from 62.7% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 59.2% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The third graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in October to 5.8%.

This was below expectations, but with the upward revisions to prior months, this was solid report.

I'll have much more later ...