by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2017 09:12:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Seattle, Portland, Dallas and Denver Lead Gains in S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in March, up from 5.7% last month and setting a 33-month high. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite indices came in at 5.2% and 5.9% annual increases, respectively, unchanged from last month.

Seattle, Portland, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In March, Seattle led the way with a 12.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 9.2%, and Dallas with an 8.6% increase. Ten cities reported higher price increases in the year ending March 2017 than in the year ending February 2017.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.8% in March. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.9% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 1.0% increase. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite indices posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase after seasonal adjustment. Eighteen of the 20 cities reported increases in March before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, 17 cities saw prices rise.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 6.4% from the peak, and up 0.8% in March (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 3.9% from the peak, and up 0.9% (SA) in March.

The National index is 2.4% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.3% (SA) in March.  The National index is up 38.4% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 5.2% compared to March 2016.  The Composite 20 SA is up 5.9% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 5.8% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 18 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2017 08:36:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April:

Personal income increased $58.4 billion (0.4 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $53.2 billion (0.4 percent).
...
Real PCE increased 0.2 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

The April PCE price index increased 1.7 percent year-over-year and the April PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.5 percent year-over-year.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through April 2017 (2009 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

The increase in personal income and PCE was at expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2017 07:00:00 AM

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From Black Knight: Black Knight Home Price Index Report: U.S. Home Prices Hit Another New Peak, Rising 1.3 Percent for the Month, Up 5.8 Percent Year-Over-Year

• At $272K, the national-level HPI continued its upward trend, hitting another new peak in March 2017, marking a 2.3 percent gain in home prices since the start of the year

• Prices were up 1.3% for the month nationally and +5.8% Y/Y

• March marked 59 consecutive months of annual national home price appreciation

• Among the nation's 20 largest states, 8 hit new peaks. Of the nation’s 40 largest metros, 15 hit new peaks

The year-over-year increase in this index has been about the same for the last year.

Note that house prices are above the bubble peak in nominal terms, but not in real terms (adjusted for inflation).  Case-Shiller for March will be released this morning.

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2017 08:05:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of May 28, 2017

• May 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 140 Institutions

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for April. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to be up 0.1%.

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March. Although this is the February report, it is really a 3 month average of January, February and March prices. The consensus is for a 5.8% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for March.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.   This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for May.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P and DOW futures are up slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $49.94 per barrel and Brent at $52.29 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $49, and Brent was at $49 - so oil prices are up slightly year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.37 per gallon - a year ago prices were at $2.33 per gallon - so gasoline prices are up slightly year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2017 11:06:00 AM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 20 May

The U.S. hotel industry reported flat occupancy and slightly higher rates year over year during the week of 14-20 May 2017, according to data from STR.

In comparison with the week of 15-21 May 2016, the industry recorded the following in the three key performance metrics:

• Occupancy: Flat at 70.6%
• Average daily rate (ADR): +1.5% to US$127.91
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +1.5% to US$90.26

STR analysts note that occupancy for the week was pulled down due to comparison with a non-Mother’s Day Sunday in 2016.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

The red line is for 2017, dashed is 2015, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.

2015 was the best year on record for hotels.

For hotels, occupancy will now move mostly sideways until the summer travel season.

Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2017 12:10:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 2017.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for May 2017.  During the month, the list dropped from 148 to 140 institutions after nine removals and one addition.  Aggregate assets fell by $1.9 billion to $34.2 billion.  A year ago, the list held 206 institutions with assets of $60.8 billion.

Actions were terminated against Delaware Place Bank, Chicago, IL ($231 million); TransPecos Banks, Pecos, TX ($153 million); First Federal Savings and Loan Association of Greensburg, Greensburg, IN ($147 million); CenTrust Bank, National Association, Northbrook, IL ($91 million); Foothills Community Bank, Dawsonville, GA ($84 million); and Forrest City Bank, National Association, Forrest City, AR ($50 million).

Guaranty Bank, Milwaukee, WI ($1.0 billion) departed the list on May, 05, 2017 as the fifth failure so far in 2017.  On March 29, 2017, the FDIC terminated the deposit insurance of Builders Bank, Chicago, IL ($41 million) causing their removal.  Pinnacle Bank, Rogers, AR ($78 million) found their way off the list through a voluntary merger.

This past Wednesday, the FDIC published industry income results for the first quarter of 2017 and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List.  The FDIC reported problem bank figures of 112 institutions with assets of $23.7 billion, which is the fewest number of problem banks since March 2008.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2017 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the May employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for April, the May ISM manufacturing index, May auto sales, and the April Trade Deficit.

----- Monday, May 29th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

----- Tuesday, May 30th -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for April. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to be up 0.1%.

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March. Although this is the February report, it is really a 3 month average of January, February and March prices.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the February 2017 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 5.8% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for March.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.   This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for May.

----- Wednesday, May 31st -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May. The consensus is for a reading of 57.5, down from 58.3 in April.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, June 1st -----
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in May, down from 177,000 added in April.

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 239 thousand initial claims, up from 234 thousand the previous week.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 54.6, down from 54.8 in April.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 54.8% in April. The employment index was at 52.0%, and the new orders index was at 54.8%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for May. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.9 million SAAR in May, mostly unchanged from 16.9 million in  April (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the April sales rate.

----- Friday, June 2nd -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for May. The consensus is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in May, down from the 211,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in April.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In April, the year-over-year change was 2.24 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through March. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $46.1 billion in April from $43.7 billion in March.

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2017 07:02:00 PM

The automakers will report May vehicle sales on Thursday, June 1st.

Note: There were 25 selling days in May 2017, up from 24 in May 2016.

From Reuters: U.S. auto sales seen up 0.5 percent in May: JD Power and LMC

U.S. auto sales in May will edge up 0.5 percent from a year earlier, despite consumer discounts remaining at record levels, industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said on Thursday.
...
The seasonally adjusted annual rate for the month will be 16.9 million vehicles, down from 17.3 million last year. ...

The consultancies cut new vehicle sales forecast for 2017 to 17.2 million units from 17.5 million units. U.S. sales of new cars and trucks hit a record high of 17.55 million units in 2016. But as the market has begun to saturate, automakers have been hiking incentives to entice consumers to buy.
emphasis added

Overall sales are mostly moving sideways (and down a little from the record in 2016).

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2017 02:44:00 PM

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in April was at 0.92%, unchanged from 0.92% in March.  Freddie's rate is down from 1.15% in April 2016.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

This matches last month as the lowest serious delinquency rate since May 2008.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

Click on graph for larger image

Although the rate is still declining, the rate of decline has slowed.

Maybe the rate will decline another 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points or so to a cycle bottom, but this is pretty close to normal.

Note: Fannie Mae will report for April soon.

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2017 11:54:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

[T]he data [today] pushed down 2Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 2.5% qoq saar. The main drag was from the weak durables report, while revisions to 1Q GDP caused some modest shifts in the 2Q components.

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.7 percent on May 26, down from 4.1 percent on May 16. The forecast for second-quarter real residential investment growth fell from 8.3 percent to 3.1 percent after Tuesday's housing related releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and Wednesday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.
emphasis added

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2017:Q2.

News from this week’s data releases reduced the nowcast for 2017:Q2 by 0.1 percentage point as the positive impact from wholesale inventories data was more than offset by the negative impact from the advance durable goods report and new home sales data.