by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2018 08:11:00 AM

To find a local march, here is the March for Our Lives website. Make a difference today!

A stunning article from the WaPo: U.S. School Shootings

Beginning with Columbine in 1999, more than 187,000 students attending at least 193 primary or secondary schools have experienced a shooting on campus during school hours, according to a year-long Washington Post analysis. This means that the number of children who have been shaken by gunfire in the places they go to learn exceeds the population of Eugene, Ore., or Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

March. Vote. Change the World.

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2018 06:58:00 PM

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Mar 23, 2018:

• Total US oil rigs were up this week, +4 to 804

• Horizontal oil rigs were up, +1 to 708
...
• The Permian continues to perform relatively well overall, although only one horizontal rig has been added there in the last six weeks.

• The Cana Woodford was absolutely hammered again, now below its July peak

• The minor ‘Other’ plays have come back to life, with horizontal oil rigs there above last July’s peak for the first time

Click on graph for larger image.

CR note: This graph shows the US horizontal rig count by basin.

Graph and comments Courtesy of Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC.

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2018 03:40:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in February were up 7.7% year-over-year (including homes, condos and manufactured homes).

2) Active inventory is now down 12.1% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.  With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the sixteenth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices rose a little faster in 2017 compared to 2016 (5.6% in 2017 compared to 4.8% in 2016).

February Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Feb-2008	3,445	---	650	18.9%	57,3051	---
Feb-2009	5,477	59.0%	2,188	39.9%	52,013	-9.2%
Feb-2010	6,595	20.4%	2,997	45.4%	42,388	-18.5%
Feb-2011	7,171	8.7%	3,776	52.7%	40,666	-4.1%
Feb-2012	7,249	1.1%	3,616	49.9%	23,736	-41.6%
Feb-2013	6,618	-8.7%	3,053	46.1%	21,718	-8.5%
Feb-2014	5,476	-17.3%	1,939	35.4%	29,899	37.7%
Feb-2015	5,970	9.0%	1,784	29.9%	27,382	-8.4%
Feb-2016	5,816	-2.6%	1,688	29.0%	27,202	-0.7%
Feb-2017	6,547	12.6%	1,696	25.9%	24,275	-10.8%
Feb-2018	7,052	7.7%	1,978	28.0%	21,339	-12.1%
1 February 2008 probably included pending listings

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2018 01:36:00 PM

Earlier from the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Unemployment rates were lower in February in 7 states and stable in 43 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Fifteen states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 35 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate was unchanged from January at 4.1 percent but was 0.6 percentage point lower than in February 2017.
...
Hawaii had the lowest unemployment rate in February, 2.1 percent. The rates in California (4.3 percent), Maine (2.9 percent), Mississippi (4.5 percent), and Wisconsin (2.9 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 7.3 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). All states are well below the maximum unemployment rate for the recession.

The size of the blue bar indicates the amount of improvement.   The yellow squares are the lowest unemployment rate per state since 1976.

Thirteen states have reached new all time lows since the end of the 2007 recession.  These thirteen states are: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Kentucky, Maine, Mississippi, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. Alaska, at 7.3%, had the highest state unemployment rate.

The second graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. At the worst of the employment recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red).

Currently one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 7% (light blue); And only Alaska is above 6% (dark blue).

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2018 11:34:00 AM

New home sales for January were reported at 618,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was below the consensus forecast, however the three previous months were revised up.

I'd like to see data for a few more months before blaming higher interest rates, or a negative impact from the new tax law, as the cause of sluggish new home sales.

Earlier: New Home Sales at 618,000 Annual Rate in February.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows new home sales for 2017 and 2018 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Sales are up 2% through February compared to the same period in 2017.  Disappointing growth, but no worries - yet!

And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting a number of years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales.  Now I'm looking for the gap to close over the next several years.

The "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through February 2018. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship had been fairly steady back to the '60s.

Following the housing bubble and bust, the "distressing gap" appeared mostly because of distressed sales.   The gap has persisted even though distressed sales are down significantly, since new home builders focused on more expensive homes.

I expect existing home sales to move more sideways, and I expect this gap to slowly close, mostly from an increase in new home sales.

However, this assumes that the builders will offer some smaller, less expensive homes. If not, then the gap will persist.

Note: Existing home sales are counted when transactions are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different.

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2018 10:12:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 618 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up.

"Sales of new single-family houses in February 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 618,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.6 percent below the revised January rate of 622,000, but is 0.5 percent above the February 2017 estimate of 615,000. "
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in February to 5.9 months from 5.8 months in January.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is at the top end of the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 305,000. This represents a supply of 5.9 months at the current sales rate."

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is also low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In February 2018 (red column), 51 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 51 thousand homes were sold in February.

The all time high for February was 109 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for February was 22 thousand in 2011.

This was below expectations of 626,000 sales SAAR, however the previous months were revised up. I'll have more later today.

by Calculated Risk on 3/22/2018 09:59:00 PM

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.1.72% increase in durable goods orders.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 626 thousand SAAR, up from 593 thousand in January.

• Also at 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for February 2018

by Calculated Risk on 3/22/2018 04:28:00 PM

By request, here is an update to the chart showing market performance under Presidents Trump and Obama.

Note: I don't think the stock market is a great measure of policy performance, but some people do - and I'm having a little fun with them.

There are a number of observers who think the stock market is the key barometer of policy success.  My view is there are many measures of success - and that the economy needs to work well for a majority of the people - not just stock investors.

However, for example, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was on CNBC on Feb 22, 2017, and was asked if the stock market rally was a vote of confidence in the new administration, he replied: "Absolutely, this is a mark-to-market business, and you see what the market thinks."

And Larry Kudlow wrote in 2007: A Stock Market Vote of Confidence for Bush: "I have long believed that stock markets are the best barometer of the health, wealth and security of a nation. And today's stock market message is an unmistakable vote of confidence for the president."

Note: Kudlow's comments were made a few months before the market started selling off in the Great Recession. For more on Kudlow, see: Larry Kudlow is usually wrong

Update: And from White House chief economic advisor Gary Cohn on December 20, 2017:

"I think there is a lot more momentum in the stock market. ... "The stock market is reflecting the reality of what's going in the business environment today," said Cohn, director of the National Economic Council. "There is going to be a continuation [of the] rally in the equity markets based on real underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy ... as well as companies having more earnings power because of lower tax rates."

For fun, here is a graph comparing S&P500 returns (ex-dividends) under Presidents Trump and Obama:

Click on graph for larger image.

Blue is for Mr. Obama, Orange is for Mr. Trump.

At this point, the S&P500 is up 16.4% under Mr. Trump - compared to up 44.8% under Mr. Obama for the same number of market days.

by Calculated Risk on 3/22/2018 01:45:00 PM

Update: Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.

And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here.

And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending, and that boosted price increases. 

I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market.

The graph below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Sacramento, and also total existing home inventory as reported by the NAR (all through February 2018).

Click on graph for larger image.

This shows the year-over-year change in inventory for Phoenix, Sacramento, and Las Vegas.  The black line if the year-over-year change in inventory as reported by the NAR.

Note that inventory is Sacramento was up 17% year-over-year in February (still very low), and has increased year-over-year for five consecutive months.  However inventory is down Nationally, and down in Phoenix and Las Vegas.

I'll try to add a few other markets.

Inventory is a key for the housing market, and I will be watching inventory for the impact of the new tax law and higher mortgage rates on housing.

by Calculated Risk on 3/22/2018 11:00:00 AM

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued at a Solid Pace

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the March Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity continued at a solid pace, and optimism remained high for future activity.

“Factory activity continued to grow steadily in March,” said Wilkerson. “Firms continued to report high input and selling prices and many are concerned about higher steel and aluminum tariffs.”
...
The month-over-month composite index was 17 in March, equal to 17 in February and higher than 16 in January. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Factory activity grew modestly at durable goods plants, particularly for machinery and aircraft, while production of nondurable goods moderated slightly. Month-over-month indexes were mixed. The shipments and new orders indexes decreased moderately, while the production, order backlog, and new orders for exports indexes where basically unchanged. In contrast, the employment index edged up from 23 to 26 and the supplier delivery time index jumped from 16 to 30, both at their highest levels in survey history. The raw materials inventory index increased from 8 to 11, and the finished goods inventory index also rose modestly.
emphasis added

So far all of the regional Fed surveys have been solid in March.