by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2019 10:56:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: May 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Results from the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s indexes for general activity, shipments, and employment increased from their April readings. The new orders index remained positive but decreased modestly. The survey’s future activity index, after falling in recent months, was little changed, while the firms’ forecast for future employment improved.

The diffusion index for current general activity increased from 8.5 in April to 16.6 this month.
...
On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment. The employment diffusion index increased 4 points to 18.2, its highest reading in five months.
emphasis added

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through May), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through April) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through April (right axis).

These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will show expansion again in May, and probably at about the faster pace than in April.

by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2019 08:47:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately‐owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,235,000. This is 5.7 percent above the revised March estimate of 1,168,000, but is 2.5 percent below the April 2018 rate of 1,267,000. Single‐family housing starts in April were at a rate of 854,000; this is 6.2 percent above the revised March figure of 804,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 359,000.

Building Permits:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,296,000. This is 0.6 percent above the revised March rate of 1,288,000, but is 5.0 percent below the April 2018 rate of 1,364,000. Single‐family authorizations in April were at a rate of 782,000; this is 4.2 percent below the revised March figure of 816,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 467,000 in April.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) were up in April compared to March.   Multi-family starts were unchanged year-over-year in April.

Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and  has been mostly moving sideways the last few years.

Single-family starts (blue) increased in April, and were down 4% year-over-year.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low).

Total housing starts in April were above expectations, and starts for February and March were revised up.

I'll have more later …

by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2019 08:33:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 220,250.
emphasis added

The previous week was unrevised.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 225,000.

This was below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2019 09:25:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 219 thousand initial claims, down from 228 thousand last week.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for April. The consensus is for 1.200 million SAAR, up from 1.139 million SAAR in March.

• At 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 9.3, up from 8.5.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2019 04:06:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Dips in April

The Dodge Momentum Index fell 0.5% in April to 144.3 (2000=100) from the revised March reading of 145.1. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The retreat in April was the result of the commercial component falling 1.0% while the institutional component rose a scant 0.2%.

The Momentum Index has clearly lost some impetus over the last twelve months. The overall Momentum Index is down 8.5% since April 2018, with the commercial component 4.7% lower and the institutional component 13.9% lower. However, over the past several months the Momentum Index has moved in a crab-like fashion with neither strong gains or losses. This suggests that there continues to be a reasonably healthy number of projects in the planning pipeline to support a moderate level of construction activity in the coming months.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 144.3 in April, down from 145.1 in March.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2019 12:21:00 PM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.2 percent from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.1 percent from April 2018.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $513.4 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent from the previous month, but 3.1 percent above April 2018. Total sales for the February 2019 through April 2019 period were up 3.0 percent from the same period a year ago. The February 2019 to March 2019 percent change was revised from up 1.6 percent to up 1.7 percent (±0.2 percent).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 0.4% in April.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.0% on a YoY basis.

The increase in April was well below expectations.  Sales in March were revised up, and sales in February were revised down.  A weak report.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2019 12:08:00 PM

From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2018. The NCHS reports:

The provisional number of births for the United States in 2018 was 3,788,235, down 2% from 2017 and the lowest number of births in 32 years. The general fertility rate was 59.0 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44, down 2% from 2017 and another record low for the United States. The total fertility rate declined 2% to 1,728.0 births per 1,000 women in 2018, another record low for the nation. Birth rates declined for nearly all age groups of women under 35, but rose for women in their late 30s and early 40s. The birth rate for teenagers aged 15–19 was down 7% in 2018 to 17.4 births per 1,000 women; rates declined for both younger (aged 15–17) and older (aged 18–19) teenagers.

Here is a long term graph of annual U.S. births through 2018.

Click on graph for larger image.

Births have declined for four consecutive years following increases in 2013 and 2014.

With fewer births, and less net migration, demographics will not be as favorable as I was expecting a few years ago.

There is much more in the report.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2019 10:04:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 66 in May, up from 63 in April. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From NAHB: Builder Confidence Posts Solid Gain in May

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose three points to 66 in May, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Builder sentiment is at its highest level since October 2018.

“Builders are busy catching up after a wet winter and many characterize sales as solid, driven by improved demand and ongoing low overall supply,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde, a home builder and developer from Torrington, Conn. “However, affordability challenges persist and remain a big impediment to stronger sales.”

“Mortgage rates are hovering just above 4 percent following a challenging fourth quarter of 2018 when they peaked near 5 percent. This lower-interest rate environment, along with ongoing job growth and rising wages, is contributing to a gradual improvement in the marketplace,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “At the same time, builders continue to deal with ongoing labor and lot shortages and rising material costs that are holding back supply and harming affordability.”
…
All the HMI indices posted gains in May. The index measuring current sales conditions rose three points to 72, the component gauging expectations in the next six months edged one point higher to 72 and the metric charting buyer traffic moved up two points to 49.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast posted a six-point gain to 57, the West increased two points to 71, the Midwest gained one point to 54, and the South rose a single point to 68.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2019 09:30:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in April, and the rates of change for previous months were revised down on net. Output is now reported to have declined 1.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter. Manufacturing production moved down 0.5 percent in April after being unchanged in March. The index for mining advanced 1.6 percent in April, while the index for utilities fell 3.5 percent. At 109.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 0.9 percent higher in April than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.6 percentage point in April to 77.9 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.2 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 77.9% is 1.9% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased in April to 109.2. This is 26% above the recession low, and 3.6% above the pre-recession peak.

The decrease in industrial production and decrease in capacity utilization were below consensus.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2019 08:34:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Business activity picked up significantly in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed eight points to 17.8, its highest level in six months. New orders and shipments also grew at a faster pace than in recent months. Delivery times held steady, and inventories moved slightly lower. Labor market indicators pointed to small increases in employment and hours worked.

The index for number of employees fell seven points to 4.7, a level indicating that employment increased only to a small degree. The average workweek index held steady at 4.4.
emphasis added

This was well above the consensus forecast.