by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2019 03:09:00 PM

Every week I post a link to the DOL report on initial unemployment claims and include a graph of initial claims over time.  I'm frequently asked if small increases in weekly claims might indicate a recession (short answer: no).

I find this report useful for two purposes.

First, this report is one of the pieces of data I use in trying to forecast the monthly employment report. This has occasionally been helpful, especially when claims rise of fall during the BLS reference week (includes the 12th of the month).

Second, when I'm on recession watch (I haven't been on recession watch since 2007), I use this high frequency report to try to estimate the timing of the recession.  In December 2007, I started posting that the recession started that month by using weekly claims and other high frequency data - but NBER didn't determine the beginning of the recession until November 28, 2008 (even though the recession started in December 2007).

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2019 10:31:00 AM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 8 June

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 2-8 June 2019, according to data from STR.

In comparison with the week of 3-9 June 2018, the industry recorded the following:

• Occupancy: -1.3% to 72.0%
• Average daily rate (ADR): +0.5% to US$132.40
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -0.8% to US$95.36
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2019, dash light blue is 2018 (record year), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels).

Occupancy has been solid in 2019, close - to-date - compared to the previous 4 years.

Seasonally, the occupancy rate will now increase during the Summer travel season.

Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2019 08:32:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 215,000 to 215,250.
emphasis added

The previous week was revised up.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 217,750.

This was above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2019 05:52:00 PM

From CoreLogic: Homeowner Equity Insights, 1st Quarter 2019

In the first quarter 2019, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity decreased 1% percent from the fourth quarter 2018 to 2.2 million homes, or 4.1% of all mortgaged properties. On a year-over-year basis, negative equity fell 11% from 2.5 million homes, or 4.7% of all mortgaged properties, in the first quarter of 2018.

The national aggregate value of negative equity was approximately $304.4 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2019. This is up quarter over quarter by approximately $2.5 billion, from $301.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Negative equity peaked at 26 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the fourth quarter of 2009, based on the CoreLogic equity data analysis which began in the third quarter of 2009.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from CoreLogic shows the percent negative equity by states.

On a year-over-year basis, the number of homeowners with negative equity has declined from 2.5 million to 2.2 million.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2019 01:28:00 PM

From the HAR: Houston Home Sales and Prices Gain Momentum in May

Encouraged by continued low interest rates and a growing selection of housing options, home buyers kept the greater Houston real estate market in positive territory for a fourth straight month in May. As it did in April, the luxury segment (homes priced at $750,000 and above) led the way in sales volume, and rental properties moved briskly. Housing inventory grew to its largest level since August 2017, meeting consumer demand as the market prepares to segue into summer.

Sales of single-family homes increased 2.8 percent in May, according to the latest monthly report from the Houston Association of Realtors® (HAR), with 8,346 homes sold compared to 8,117 in May 2018. On a year-to-date basis, home sales are running 2.7 percent ahead of 2018’s record pace.
...
May sales of all property types totaled 9,948, up 3.1 percent compared to the same month last year. Total dollar volume for the month jumped 7.8 percent to slightly more than $3 billion.

“We are seeing signs of a healthy and sustainable housing market throughout greater Houston, and that is due to a more plentiful supply of homes, continued low interest rates and a strong local economy,” said HAR Chair Shannon Cobb Evans with Heritage Texas Properties. “In addition to solid home sales, consumers are still snapping up rental properties, and that is also driving the local housing market.”
...
Total active listings, or the total number of available properties, went up 10.1 percent to 43,624. ...
emphasis added

On pace for record sales in Houston.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2019 11:13:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.3% annualized rate) in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.1% (1.3% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.1% (0.9% annualized rate) in May. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.1% (1.4% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for May here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.7%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.0%. Core PCE is for March and increased 1.6% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.3% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 1.3% annualized, and core CPI was at 1.4% annualized.

Using these measures, inflation was about the lower in May than in April on a year-over-year basis. Overall, these measures are at or above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is below 2%).

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2019 08:32:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.
...
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent for the fourth consecutive month.
...
The all items index increased 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending May. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index also rose 2.0 percent. The energy index decreased 0.5 percent over the past year.
emphasis added

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2019 08:10:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 26.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 7, 2019. The results for the week ending May 31, 2019 included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

... The Refinance Index increased 47 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 20 percent compared with the previous week and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“Mortgage rates for all loan types fell by a sizeable margin for the second straight week, pulled down by trade tensions with China and Mexico, the financial markets reacting to more bearish communication from several Fed officials, and weaker than expected hiring in May,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Despite the less positive outlook, both purchase and refinance applications surged, driven mainly by these lower rates. The refinance index jumped 47 percent to its highest level since 2016.”

Added Kan, “With the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at its lowest level since September 2017, purchase activity was more than 10 percent higher than a year ago. Demand is still relatively strong, but there is likely some restraint from prospective buyers, driven by some economic uncertainty. Furthermore, housing supply is still very tight for first-time buyers.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) decreased to 4.12 percent from 4.23 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Mortgage rates have declined from close to 5% late last year to under 4% recently.

Just about anyone who bought or refinanced over the last year or so can refinance now.   But it would take another significant decline in rates for a further large increase in refinance activity.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 10% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2019 08:05:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.1% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2019 05:24:00 PM

Special note: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

On the impact of the trade war, from Port of Long Beach Executive Director Mario Cordero: “One year into the trade war, escalating tariffs have pushed retailers to order goods early, warehouses are brimming with inventory as a result, and in response, ocean carriers are managing their vessels to deal with reduced demand,” Cordero said. “We are hopeful Washington and Beijing can resolve their differences before we see long-term changes to the supply chain that impact jobs in both nations.” emphasis added

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 0.5% in May compared to the rolling 12 months ending in April.   Outbound traffic was down 0.7% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year (February 5th in 2019).

In general imports have been increasing, and exports have mostly moved sideways over the last 8 years.