by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2021 07:14:00 PM

SPECIAL NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project will end daily updates on March 7th. Heroes that filled a critical void! Quality government data will likely be available soon.

From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Feb 12th.

"In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 50.1 million doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally. In the last week, an average of 1.66 million doses per day were administered."

Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This site has data on vaccinations, cases and more.

The US is now averaging close to 2.0 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.

There were 1,816,007 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 102,570 positive tests.

Almost 39,000 US deaths have been reported in February. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.6%.  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).

Both cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are still above the previous peaks.  

The 7-day average cases fell below 100,000 for the first time since November 2nd.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2021 02:08:00 PM

From the MNRealtor for the entire state:

Closed sales in January 2021 were 4,789, up 16.2% from 4,120 in January 2020.

Active Listings in January 2021 were 7,860, down 48.3% from 15,213 in January 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.0 Months in January 2021, compared to 2.1 Months in January 2020.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Minnesota Association of REALTORS® shows inventory in Minnesota and 2012. Inventory had been trending down, and then declined significantly during the pandemic.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2021 11:05:00 AM

From CoStar: STR: Super Bowl Lifts Tampa Hotels During First Week of February

U.S. weekly hotel occupancy remained relatively flat from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 6.

Jan. 31 through Feb. 6, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2020)::

• Occupancy: 40.9% (-30.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$91.44 (-29.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$37.44 (-50.6%)

Lifted by Super Bowl LV, Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida (62.9%), saw the highest occupancy level among the Top 25 Markets.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020).

Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting.

Seasonally we'd expect that business travel would start to pick up in the new year, but there will probably not be much pickup early in 2021.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2021 10:12:00 AM

From the NTREIS for North Texas (including Dallas/Ft. Worth):

Single Family Homes sold in January 2021 were 7,010, up 10% January 2020. Condos and Townhomes sold in January 2021 were 491, up 37% from January 2020.

Combined, sales were up 11% year-over-year.

Single Family Active Listings in January 2021 were 7,806, down 62% from January 2020. For Condos and Townhomes, Active Listings in January 2021 were 1,450, down 25% from January 2020.

Combined, active listings declined 59% year-over-year.

Months of Supply was 1.2 Months in January 2021, compared to 3.3 Months in January 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2021 08:40:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of February 9th.

From Black Knight: Forbearance Volumes Fall Below 2.7m For First Time Since April 2020

The latest weekly snapshot of our daily McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows the number of homeowners in active forbearance fell by 48,000 this week. As was the case last week, the decline was driven by January month-end forbearance plan expirations.
...
As of Feb. 9, 2.67 million (5% of) homeowners remain in forbearance, marking the first time forbearance volumes have fallen below the 2.7 million threshold since early April. Despite this good news, improvement remains muted, with average monthly declines of less than 2% since early December.

Click on graph for larger image.

Also worth noting is the FHFA’s big announcement this week: borrowers in Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac forbearance plans may be eligible for an extension of up to three months, for a potential grand total of 15 months. This will have material impacts on the 907,000 homeowners currently in GSE forbearance plans, about 30% of whom were set to reach their 12-month expirations at the end of March.

Should Ginnie Mae follow suit and also extend FHA/VA forbearance limits to 15 months, at the current rate of improvement there would still be some 2.5 million homeowners in forbearance at the end of June when the first round of plans hit their new 15-month expirations.

emphasis added

The number of loans in forbearance has moved mostly sideways for the last few months.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2021 07:15:00 PM

SPECIAL NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project will end daily updates on March 7th. Heroes that filled a critical void! Quality government data will likely be available soon.

From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Feb 11th.

"In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 48 million doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally. In the last week, an average of 1.62 million doses per day were administered."

Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This site has data on vaccinations, cases and more.

The US is now averaging close to 2.0 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.

There were 1,892,736 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 103,024 positive tests.

Over 33,000 US deaths have been reported in February. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.4%.  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).

Both cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are still above the previous peaks.  

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2021 02:15:00 PM

From the GAMLS for Atlanta:

Total Residential Units Sold in January 2021 were 6,075, up 9.5% from 5,496 in January 2020.

Active Residential Listings in January 2021 were 9,028, down 52.3% from 18,928 in January 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.10 Months in January 2021, compared to 2.51 Months in January 2020.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Georgia MLS shows inventory in Atlanta over the last several years - and the sharp decline in inventory at the start of the pandemic.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2021 12:04:00 PM

From the HAR: Houston Real Estate Kicks Off 2021 With Gusto

Even as the supply of homes across the greater Houston area continues to shrink, homebuyers were out in force in January, snapping up properties that were still on the market and extending the breakneck momentum with which 2020 ended. The luxury housing segment drew the strongest sales activity during the first month of the new year, with homebuyers also driving brisk sales among mid-range homes.

According to the latest Houston Association of Realtors (HAR) Market Update, 6,088 single-family homes sold in January compared to 4,769 a year earlier. That accounted for a 27.7 percent increase and marked the eighth straight month of positive sales.
...
Sales of all property types totaled 7,519 – up 27.5 percent from January 2020. Total dollar volume for the month surged 42.8 percent to $2.3 billion.
...
Single-family home sales, total property sales and total dollar volume all rose compared to January 2020. Pending sales shot up 34.5 percent. However, total active listings – or the total number of available properties – fell 31.3 percent as new listings trickled onto the market.
emphasis added

Inventory declined 31.3% year-over-year from 38,256 in January 2020 to 26,271 in January 2021.   This is just 1.8 months of supply.

Note that the closed sales in January were for contracts that were mostly signed in November and December.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2021 10:16:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Fourth Quarter of 2020

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.73 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest National Delinquency Survey.

For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. The delinquency rate was down 92 basis points from the third quarter of 2020 and up 296 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the fourth quarter remained unchanged from the last two quarters at a survey low of 0.03 percent.

“For the second consecutive quarter, homeowners’ ability to make their mortgage payments improved,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The 92-basis-point drop in the delinquency rate in the fourth quarter was the biggest quarterly decline in the history of MBA’s survey dating back to 1979. Total mortgage delinquencies across the three loan types – conventional, FHA, and VA – and across the major stages of delinquency – 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day – declined from last year’s third quarter.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  Overall delinquencies decreased in Q4.

The decrease was in all the buckets.  

From the MBA:

Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate decreased 8 basis points to 1.78 percent, the lowest rate since the survey began in 1979. The 60-day delinquency rate decreased 25 basis points to 0.77 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 60 basis points to 4.18 percent.

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.56 percent, down 3 basis points from the third quarter of 2020 and 22 basis points from one year ago. This is the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the second quarter of 1982.

This sharp increase last year in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further, and was at the lowest level since 1982.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2021 08:41:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending February 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 793,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 33,000 from 779,000 to 812,000. The 4-week moving average was 823,000, a decrease of 33,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 8,250 from 848,250 to 856,500.
emphasis added

This does not include the 334,524 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 368,977 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 823,000.

The previous week was revised up.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 4,545,000 (SA) from 4,690,000 (SA) the previous week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 8,715,306 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 7,218,801 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 4,777,842 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 3,604,894.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast, and the previous week was revised up sharply.