by Calculated Risk on 3/10/2021 11:12:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% in February. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for February here. Motor fuel was up 110% annualized in February.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.1%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.0%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.3%. Core PCE is for January and increased 1.5% year-over-year.

Important Note: We will likely see some year-over-year jumps in some measures of inflation, since we saw some deflation in 2020. For example, we saw negative Month-to-month (MoM) core CPI and CPI readings in March, April and May 2020. Assuming positive readings in those months in 2021, the YoY change in CPI and core CPI will jump.

We also saw negative MoM PCE and core PCE reading in March and April 2020.  Ignore a jump in YoY inflation in March, April and May!

by Calculated Risk on 3/10/2021 08:33:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 6.4 percent in February and accounting for over half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The electricity and natural gas indexes also increased, and the energy index rose 3.9 percent over the month. The food index rose 0.2 percent in February, with the index for food at home and the index for food away from home both rising.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in February. The indexes for shelter, recreation, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance all increased over the month. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and apparel all declined in February.

The all items index rose 1.7 percent for the 12 months ending February, a larger increase than the 1.4-percent reported for the period ending in January. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.3 percent over the last 12 months, a smaller increase than the 1.4-percent rise for the 12 months ending January. The food index rose 3.6 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index increased 2.4 percent over that period.
emphasis added

CPI was at expectations in February, and core CPI was slightly below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 3/10/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 5, 2021.

... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

"The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 3.26 percent last week, which is the highest since last July and up 40 basis points since the start of 2021. Signs of faster economic growth, an improving job market and increased vaccine distribution are pushing rates higher,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The run-up in mortgage rates continues to cool demand for refinance applications. Activity declined last week for the fourth time in five weeks.”

Added Kan, “With the spring buying season at the doorstep, the purchase market had its strongest showing in four weeks, with gains in both conventional and government applications. Overall activity was 2.4 percent higher than a year ago, and loan sizes moderated for the second straight week – potentially a sign that more first-time buyers are entering the market.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.26 percent from 3.23 percent, with points decreasing to 0.43 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With near record low rates, the index remains elevated, but, as expected, was down year-over-year - since rates fell sharply, and refinance activity picked up, at the beginning of the pandemic).

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 2% year-over-year unadjusted.

In two weeks, the MBA index will be up sharply year-over-year since purchase activity collapsed in late March 2020 in the early weeks of the pandemic.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2021 08:55:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates Modestly Lower, But Hoping For More

At this point, no one should be surprised to hear that mortgage rates have moved significantly higher in 2021--especially in the past few weeks. ... Taking the big, scary rate spike as read, let's move on to wondering about what happens next. All too often in the past 2-3 weeks, there's been a glimmer of hope in the bond market (which dictates day-to-day mortgage rate changes) only for things to get even worse in short order. We've reached another one of those "glimmer of hope" moments now as rates have managed to avoid slipping above their highest levels in more than a year seen last Friday.

With only 2 days of ground-holding, we obviously can't declare victory just yet, but should we even hope for victory or just assume rates will continue higher? [30 year fixed 3.26%]

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2021 04:41:00 PM

From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Mar 9th:

"So far, 93.7 million doses have been given. In the last week, an average of 2.15 million doses per day were administered."

Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This site has data on vaccinations, cases and more.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average is 68,180, well above the low following the summer surge of 35,000.

Note that Missouri reported 81,000 previously unreported cases - and that caused the spike in total cases today.

The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.

This data is also from the CDC.

The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.

The current 7-day average is 38,872, well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.

by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2021 01:07:00 PM

From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 80.4 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of March 6

The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 80.4 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by March 6 in its survey of 11.6 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.

This is a 4.1 percentage point, or 474,942 household decrease from the share who paid rent through March 6, 2020 and compares to 79.2 percent that had paid by February 6, 2021. This data encompasses a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.

“On behalf of the multifamily industry, we are deeply appreciative of how leaders in Congress and the Biden administration worked with us to develop legislation that will deliver direct financial support to those facing distress due to the pandemic,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th of the month compared to the same month the prior year.

This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties.  

The second graph shows full month payments through February compared to the same month the prior year.

This shows a decline in rent payments year-over-year, and somewhat more of a decline over the last several months.

CR Note: There are some timing issues month to month, but rent payments appear to be declining.
 

by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2021 11:56:00 AM

Every month, the San Francisco Fed estimates Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted). They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment.

The BLS reported 379 thousand jobs were added in February.​

The San Francisco Fed estimates that weather adjusted employment gains were 482 thousand; about 100 thousand higher than the BLS reported.

Click on table for larger image.

This table from Daniel Wilson at the SF Fed shows the BLS reported job gains for the last 6 months, and two estimates of the impact of weather.

by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2021 11:41:00 AM

Closed sales in Texas might have been impacted by the severe weather in February.

Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows.

From the NTREIS for North Texas (including Dallas/Ft. Worth):

Single Family Homes sold in February 2021 were 6,958, down 8% from 7,534 in February 2020. 

Condos and Townhomes sold in February 2021 were 579, up 30% from 446 in February 2020.

Combined, sales were down 5.6% year-over-year.

Single Family Active Listings in February 2021 were 6,687, down 68% from 20,723 in February 2020. 

For Condos and Townhomes, Active Listings in February 2021 were 1,266, down 37% from 2,017 in February 2020.

Combined, active listings declined 65% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2021 09:29:00 AM

Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows.

From the DMAR: Monthly Indicators, February 2021

Total Residential Units Sold in February 2021 were 3,641, up 3.7% from 3,511 in February 2020.

Active Residential Listings in February 2021 were 2,024, down 58.1% from 4,835 in February 2020.

Inventory in Denver had been fairly steady over the last 6 or 7 years, but declined sharply in 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2021 08:11:00 AM

Note: Inventory is down sharply in the Northwest almost everywhere except Seattle. And inventory is low in Seattle too, but was even lower a year ago.

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Housing market stays hot despite some “lousy” February weather

Housing activity during February remained hot around much of Washington state despite significant accumulation of lowland snow over the Valentine’s Day weekend, according to the latest statistical report from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“It’s amazing how close the February numbers are when compared to February 2020, which was, of course, right before our world changed,” said Mike Grady, president and CEO of Coldwell Banker Bain. "Despite our similarly lousy February weather, the data show that the market continues to be hot, with residential inventory very tight and median prices rising by double digits across most of our counties.”
...
Northwest MLS member-brokers reported 5,812 closed sales during February for a 10.4% increase over the year-ago total of 5,265 closings.
...
Total active listings of single family homes declined nearly 44% from a year ago. The selection of single family homes fell more than 51% while condo inventory rose 7.9%.
emphasis added

The press release is for the Northwest MLS area. There were 5,812 closed sales in February 2021, up 10.4% from 5,265 sales in February 2020.  Active inventory for the Northwest is down 44%.

In King County, sales were up 13.5% year-over-year, and active inventory was down 18% year-over-year.

In Seattle, sales were up 19.6% year-over-year, and inventory was UP 27% year-over-year. (inventory in Seattle was extremely low last year).  This puts the months-of-supply in Seattle at just 1.3 months.