by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2021 02:36:00 PM

Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows.

For for the entire state Rhode Island:

Closed sales (single family and condos) in February 2021 were 776, up 4.2% from 745 in February 2020.

Active Listings (single family and condos)  in February 2021 were 1,569, down 48.5% from 3,046 in February 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2021 01:35:00 PM

Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows.

For for the entire state Indiana:

Closed sales in February 2021 were 5,753, up 5.7% from 5,444 in February 2020.

Active Listings in February 2021 were 6,028, down 56.1% from 13,739 in February 2020.

Months of Supply was 0.7 Months in February 2021, compared to 1.8 Months in February 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2021 11:17:00 AM

Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data) are declining, whereas the forecasts of economists are increasing.

From Merrrill Lynch:

The net positive revisions to retail sales boosted our 1Q GDP tracking estimate up to 7.0% qoq saar from 5.5% previously. [Mar 19 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

[W]e boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 1.5pp to +7.5% (qoq ar) and lowered our Q2 GDP growth forecast by the same amount (to +9.5%). [Mar 16 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.3% for 2021:Q1 and 1.2% for 2021:Q2. [Mar 19 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 5.7 percent on March 17, down from 5.9 percent on March 16. [Mar 17 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2021 09:13:00 AM

Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows.

For the entire state of Alabama:

Closed sales in February 2021 were 5,197, up 14.6% from 4,533 in February 2020.

Active Listings in February 2021 were 9,950, down 44.0% from 17,770 in February 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.9 Months in February 2021, compared to 3.9 Months in February 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2021 08:08:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of March 16th.

From Black Knight: Forbearances Fall Below 2.6m For the First Time Since April 2020

Servicers continue to work through the large volume of scheduled March month-end expirations, which led to a decline in the number of active forbearance plans (down 16,000/-0.6%). About 620,000 active plans remain with March month-end expirations, roughly half of the 1.2 million such plans entering this month.

This week’s declines were driven by improvements among both GSE (-13,000) and FHA/VA plans (-8,000), while active plan volumes rose among portfolio/PLS mortgages.

Click on graph for larger image.

All in, as of March 16, there are now 2.59 million active forbearance plans, representing 4.9% of all active mortgages. This marks the first time since early April 2020 that the number of outstanding forbearance plans has edged below 2.6 million.

Keeping in mind those 620,000 mortgages in forbearance with March expirations, the extension and removal activity will be worth keeping a close eye on through the final two weeks of the month and into early April. We’ll post another forbearance update next Friday, March 26.
emphasis added

The number of loans in forbearance has declined slightly over the last few months.

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2021 06:40:00 PM

According to the CDC, 115.7 million doses have been administered. 15.9% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 29.2% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)

Over 23,000 US deaths reported in March due to COVID.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average is 53,722, well above the low following the summer surge of 35,000.

The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.

This data is also from the CDC.

The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.

The current 7-day average is 34,004 well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2021 04:35:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.29 million in February, down 6.0% from January’s preliminary pace but up 10.4% from last February’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale last month was significantly larger than the big decline in January. The catalyst for the inventory drop in both months appears to have been very low levels of new listings – almost all realtor reports that include new listings showed a sizable YOY decline.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 14.5% from last February.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release February existing home sales on Monday, March 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 6.51 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2021 03:04:00 PM

Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows.

From the Maryland Realtors for the entire state:

Closed sales in February 2021 were 6,209, up 12.3% from 5,527 in February 2020.

Active Listings in February 2021 were 6,245, down 65.6% from 18,179 in February 2020.

Months of Supply was 0.8 Months in February 2021, compared to 2.4 Months in February 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2021 01:53:00 PM

Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows.

From the New Hampshire Realtors for the entire state:

Closed sales Single family and Condos in February 2021 were 1,217, up 13.5% from 1,072 in February 2020.

Active Listings Single family and Condos in February 2021 were 1,514, down 63.8% from 4,178 in February 2020.

Months of Supply for Single family and Condos in February 2021 was 0.7 months, down from 2.1 months in February 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2021 12:40:00 PM

Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same just about everywhere ... inventory is at record lows.

From the MNRealtor Homes for sale down. Pending sales flat for first time since May 2020 for the entire state:

Demand remained high in the Minnesota housing market in February as homebuyers competed with multiple offers for diminishing housing stock. Closed sales were up +5.8% over last year, but new listings sank -14.8%. Since last May, pending sales fell flat for the first time and were down -0.8% from February 2020. Adding to the pressure, homes for sale fell 51.6%, the largest decrease in a year. Shrinking inventory defined this seller’s market, pushing the median sales price up +10.6% to $282,000. Days on the market retracted by -25.47% over last year, down to just 47 days. Correspondingly, homes received 99.0% of the original price received, a +2.3% increase over last year.
emphasis added

Closed sales in February 2021 were 4,424, up +5.8% from 4,180 in February 2020.

Active Listings in February 2021 were 7,460, down 51.6% from 15,417 in February 2020.

Months of Supply was 0.9 Months in February 2021, compared to 2.1 Months in February 2020.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Minnesota Association of REALTORS® shows inventory in Minnesota since 2012. Inventory had been trending down, and then declined significantly during the pandemic.