by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2021 04:44:00 PM
Thursday, April 15, 2021
April 15th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Almost 200 Million Doses Administered
Note: I'm looking forward to not posting this daily! I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once all three of these criteria are met:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,
2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and
3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.
According to the CDC, 198.3 million doses have been administered. 30.3% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 48.3% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (124.8 million people have had at least one dose).
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.
Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.
This data is from the CDC.
The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.
This data is also from the CDC.
The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.
Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales Up 14% YoY, Active Inventory Down 69% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2021 04:12:00 PM
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):
1) Overall sales were at 9,806 in March, up 13.7% from 8,626 in March 2020.
2) Active inventory was at 4,383, down 69.3% from 14,257 in March 2020.
3) Months of supply decreased to 0.92 in March from 2.11 in March 2020. This is very low.
Sales are reported at the close of escrow, so these sales were mostly signed in January and February.
Rhode Island Real Estate in March: Sales Up 10% YoY, Inventory Down 44% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2021 04:03:00 PM
Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.
For for the entire state Rhode Island:
Closed sales (single family and condos) in March 2021 were 1,029, up 10.1% from 935 in March 2020.
Active Listings (single family and condos) in March 2021 were 1,637, down 44.4% from 2,945 in March 2020.
NMHC: "April Apartment Market Conditions Show Improvement"
by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2021 02:57:00 PM
The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) released their April report: April Apartment Market Conditions Show Improvement
Apartment market conditions showed improvement in the National Multifamily Housing Council’s Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for April 2021, as the industry begins to see signs of optimism. While the Sales Volume (77) and Equity Financing (68) indexes both came in above the breakeven level (50) for the third consecutive quarter, the index for Market Tightness (81) signaled tighter conditions for the first time since October 2019. The Debt Financing index (44) indicated weaker conditions.
“We are finally seeing improvement in most markets around the country,” noted NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky. “While gateway metros are still generally facing lower occupancy and rent levels compared to a year ago, conditions now appear to be on an upward trajectory. On the other hand, many Sun Belt markets continue to see substantial rent growth and strength in fundamentals.”
“Following what we saw as an inflection point last quarter, with a majority of respondents (53 percent) indicating market conditions were unchanged, two-thirds (67 percent) of respondents this quarter observed tighter conditions in their apartment markets. We move forward with cautious optimism, as vaccine rollout is well underway and there is hope that all residents will be able to return to work soon.””
...
The Market Tightness Index increased from 43 to 81, indicating tighter market conditions for the first time in six quarters. Two-thirds (67 percent) of respondents reported tighter market conditions than three months prior, compared to only 5 percent who reported looser conditions. Twenty-eight percent of respondents felt that conditions were no different from last quarter.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index. Any reading above 50 indicates tighter conditions from the previous quarter.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 15% Compared to Same Week in 2019
by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2021 11:59:00 AM
Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. However, occupancy is still down significantly from normal levels.
The occupancy rate is down 15% compared to the same week in 2019.
The U.S. hotel industry posted its highest demand and occupancy levels since the beginning of the pandemic, according to STR‘s latest weekly data through April 10.For more, see STR's U.S. Market Recovery Monitor
April 4-10, 2021:
• Occupancy: 59.7%
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$112.22
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$66.99
Reflecting the country’s almost 2-point improvement in occupancy from the previous week, more than 50% of properties posted a weekly occupancy above 60%.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
Click on graph for larger image.
The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 83 in April
by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2021 10:06:00 AM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 83, up from 82 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Edges Up as Strong Demand Offsets Supply-Side Challenges
Strong buyer demand pushed builder confidence up in April even as builders continued to grapple with rising lumber prices and supply chain issues and consumers faced higher home prices due to a lack inventory. The latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today shows that builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 83 in April.Click on graph for larger image.
“Despite strong buyer traffic, builders continue to face challenges to add much needed housing supply to the market,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “The supply chain for residential construction is tight, particularly regarding the cost and availability of lumber, appliances, and other building materials. Though builders are seeking to keep home prices affordable in a market in need of more inventory, policymakers must find ways to increase the supply of building materials as the economy runs hot in 2021.”
“While mortgage interest rates have trended higher since February and home prices continue to outstrip inflation, housing demand appears to be unwavering for now as buyer traffic reached its highest level since November,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “NAHB’s forecast is for ongoing growth in single-family construction in 2021, albeit at a lower growth rate than realized in 2020.”
...
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased one point to 88 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point gain to 75. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell two points to 81.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose six points 86 and the South moved up one point to 83. The West held steady at 90 and the Midwest fell two points to 78.
This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.
This was at the consensus forecast, and a very strong reading.
Housing and homebuilding have been one of the best performing sectors during the pandemic.
Industrial Production Increased 1.4 Percent in March
by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2021 09:22:00 AM
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
In March, total industrial production increased 1.4 percent. The gain in March followed a drop of 2.6 percent in February, which largely resulted from widespread outages related to severe winter weather in the south central region of the country. For the first quarter as a whole, total industrial production rose 2.5 percent at an annual rate. In March, manufacturing production and mining output increased 2.7 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively. The output of utilities dropped 11.4 percent, as the demand for heating fell because of a swing in temperatures from an unseasonably cold February to an unseasonably warm March.Click on graph for larger image.
At 105.6 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in March was 1.0 percent higher than its year-earlier level, but it was 3.4 percent below its pre-pandemic (February 2020) level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 1.0 percentage point in March to 74.4 percent, a rate that is 5.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.
emphasis added
This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still below the level in February 2020.
Capacity utilization at 74.4% is 5.2% below the average from 1972 to 2020.
Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.
Industrial production increased in March to 105.6. This is 3.4% below the February 2020 level.
The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations.
Retail Sales Increased 9.8% in March
by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2021 08:45:00 AM
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 9.8 percent from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 27.7 percent from March 2020.
From the Census Bureau report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $619.1 billion, an increase of 9.8 percent from the previous month, and 27.7 percent above March 2020.Click on graph for larger image.
emphasis added
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 9.7% in March.
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.
Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 27.4% on a YoY basis.
Sales in March were slightly above expectations, and sales in January and February were revised up.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased sharply to 576,000
by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2021 08:36:00 AM
The DOL reported:
In the week ending April 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 576,000, a decrease of 193,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 25,000 from 744,000 to 769,000. The 4-week moving average was 683,000, a decrease of 47,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 6,500 from 723,750 to 730,250.This does not include the 131,975 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 152,419 the previous week.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 683,000.
The previous week was revised up.
Regular state continued claims increased to 3,731,000 (SA) from 3,727,000 (SA) the previous week.
Note: There are an additional 7,053,575 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 7,554,290 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 5,160,267 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,634,967.
Weekly claims were much lower than the consensus forecast.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021
Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, NY and Philly Fed Mfg, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2021 09:00:00 PM
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 720 thousand from 744 thousand last week.
• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 5.5% increase in retail sales. The consensus is probably low (given the stimulus checks).
• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 18.2, up from 17.4.
• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 43.0, down from 51.8.
• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March. The consensus is for a 3.0% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 75.8%.
• At 10:00 AM, The April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 83, up from 82. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.