by Calculated Risk on 5/07/2021 08:41:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other services, and local government education were partially offset by employment declines in temporary help services and in couriers and messengers.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised up by 68,000, from +468,000 to +536,000, and the change for March was revised down by 146,000, from +916,000 to +770,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 78,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In April, the year-over-year change was 14.147 million jobs.  This was up significantly - since employment collapsed in April 2020.

Total payrolls increased by 266 thousand in March.  Private payrolls increased by 218 thousand.

Payrolls for February and March were revised down 78 thousand, combined.

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.7% in April, from 61.7% in March. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 57.9% from 57.8% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate increased in April to 6.1% from 6.0% in March.

This was well below consensus expectations, and February and March were revised down by 78,000 combined.

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2021 08:59:00 PM

My April Employment Preview

Goldman April Payrolls Preview

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for April.   The consensus is for 978,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.7%.

by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2021 06:16:00 PM

President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations
1) 57.0% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.
2) 108.1 million Americans are fully vaccinated.

Note: I'll stop posting this daily once all three of these criteria are met:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and
3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. 

Almost 3,000 US deaths were reported so far in May due to COVID.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average is 45,816, down from 47,520 yesterday, and down from the recent peak of 69,881 on April 13, 2021. This is the lowest since October 7, 2020, but well above the post-summer surge low of 34,668.

The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.

This data is also from the CDC.

The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.

The current 7-day average is 33,808, down from 34,374 reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.

by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2021 03:54:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 1,300k in April (mom sa) ... We estimate a five-tenths decline in the unemployment rate to 5.5%, reflecting rapid job gains partially offset by an expected rise in the participation rate.
emphasis added

CR Note: The consensus is for 978 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.7%.

by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2021 01:07:00 PM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. However, occupancy is still down significantly from normal levels.

The occupancy rate is down 17% compared to the same week in 2019.

From CoStar: STR: US Hotels End April With Positive Weekend Occupancy Streak

U.S. hotel occupancy remained relatively flat compared with the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through May 1.

April 25 through May 1, 2021:

• Occupancy: 57.1%
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$108.80
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$62.13

While the overall weekly data was stagnant, weekend occupancy rose modestly and came in above 70% for the fourth straight week. However, the Top 25 Markets showed a lower occupancy level in aggregate with more properties reopening on top of lower demand.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Occupancy is now slightly above the horrible 2009 levels.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2021 12:31:00 PM

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus is for 978 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.7%.

Some analysts think this will be a very strong report with maybe 1.5 to 2.1 million jobs added.

• First, currently there are still about 8.4 million fewer jobs than in February 2020 (before the pandemic).

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and is now slightly better than the worst of the "Great Recession".

• ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed a gain of 742,000 private sector jobs, below the consensus estimate of 830,000 jobs added.  The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report, but this suggests the BLS report could be close to expectations.

• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index decreased in April to 55.1%, down from 59.6% last month.   This would suggest approximately 10,000 manufacturing jobs added in April. ADP showed 55,000 manufacturing jobs added.

The ISM® Services employment index increased in April to 58.8%, up from 57.7% last month.   This would suggest over 300,000 service jobs added in April. ADP showed 636,000 service jobs added.

• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed a sharp decline in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (include the 12th of the month) from 765,000 in March to 566,000 in April. This would usually suggest a pickup in hiring, although this might not be very useful right now. If we did a "Rip Van Winkle", and saw the weekly claims report this morning, we'd still think the economy was in a deep recession! In general, weekly claims have been lower than expectations.

• Weather: The SF Fed estimated that weather boosted employment by about 100 thousand in March, after reducing employment by 100 thousand in February. Weather is probably not a factor for April, but when we compare to March, we have to remember employment was boosted by weather last month.

• Permanent Job Losers: Something to watch in the employment report will be "Permanent job losers". While there has been a strong bounce back in total employment, from the shutdown in March and April, permanent job losers had been flat over the last several months.

This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the December report.

This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. n March, the number of permanent job losers decreased slightly to 3.432 million from 3.497 million in February.

• Conclusion: Most of the indicators suggest another strong report in April and many analysts are upgrading their forecasts to over 1 million jobs added.  However, my guess is the report will be at or below the consensus.

by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2021 10:12:00 AM

This report is for closed sales in April; sales are counted at the close of escrow, so the contracts for these homes were mostly signed in February and March.

The Las Vegas Realtors reported Another month, another record for Southern Nevada home prices; LVR housing statistics for April 2021

“These April statistics benefit from a comparison to the same month last year, when our housing market was hit hard by the beginning of this pandemic,” said 2021 LVR President Aldo Martinez. “It’s still striking to see how home prices here and nationwide continue to rise to record levels. April did signify the first month this year when single-family home sales did not exceed the previous month. ...”

LVR reported a total of 4,552 existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during April. Compared to the same time last year, April sales were up 79.0% for homes and up 132.7% for condos and townhomes. So far this year, local home sales are on pace to exceed last year’s total.
…
By the end of April, LVR reported 1,827 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. Although down from the same period last year, Martinez said “it’s the second straight month where we ended up with more inventory without offers – 3.1% more. The same cannot be said for condos and townhomes. The 519 properties listed without offers in April represent a 13.1% decrease from the previous month and the fifth straight month this year where that inventory continues to decline. This just shows how consumers are adjusting their sights when it comes to affordable housing.”
...
Despite the pandemic, the number of so-called distressed sales remains near historically low levels. LVR reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 0.9% of all existing local property sales in April. That compares to 1.5% of all sales one year ago, 3.0% of all sales two years ago, 2.5% three years ago and 8.4% four years ago. Martinez suggested that these percentages may rise slightly as some homeowners “may have difficulty coming out of forbearance programs – however nowhere near what we had seen in the last recession.”
emphasis added

1) Overall sales (single family and condos) were up 88.8% year-over-year from 2,411 in April 2020 to 4,552 in April 2021.

2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down from a year ago, from a total of 7,815 in April 2020 to 2,346 in April 2021. Note: Total inventory was down 70.0% year-over-year.   And months of inventory is extremely low.

3) Very low level of distressed sales.

by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2021 08:37:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 498,000, a decrease of 92,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 37,000 from 553,000 to 590,000. The 4-week moving average was 560,000, a decrease of 61,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 9,250 from 611,750 to 621,000.
emphasis added

This does not include the 101,214 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 121,414 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 560,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims increased to 3,690,000 (SA) from 3,653,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 6,862,705 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 6,974,909 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 4,972,507 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,194,099.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2021 08:15:00 PM

Note: Inventory is down sharply in the Northwest almost everywhere except Seattle. And inventory is low in Seattle too, but was even lower a year ago.

Remember - sales slumped in April 2020, so the year-over-year sales comparisons are crazy.

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Brokers detect good news for home buyers, citing gains in listings and moderating prices

Finally, some good news for home buyers! Sizeable increases in new listings compared to a year ago and reports of moderating prices "might mean we are seeing some relief for buyers," suggested John Deely, a board member at Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

In commenting on the latest statistics from Northwest MLS summarizing April activity, Deely said the market remains hot while emphasizing active listing numbers do not always reflect actual overall activity. "With a market like ours, and the velocity of new listings moving to pending status, active listing data tend to get more attention," stated Deely, the vice president of operations at Coldwell Banker Bain.

April's month-end inventory of 5,616 listings was a year-over-year (YOY) drop of 45%; a year ago, there were 10,282 active listings in the MLS database.
emphasis added

The press release is for the Northwest MLS area. There were 8,791 closed sales in April 2021, up 49.9% from 5,866 sales in April 2020.  Active inventory for the Northwest is down 45.4%.

In King County, sales were up 64.1% year-over-year, and active inventory was down 32.0% year-over-year.

In Seattle, sales were up 85.3% year-over-year, and inventory was UP 3.0% year-over-year. (inventory in Seattle was extremely low last year).  This puts the months-of-supply in Seattle at just 0.96 months.

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2021 04:54:00 PM

President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations
1) 56.7% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.
2) 106.5 million Americans are fully vaccinated.

Note: I'll stop posting this daily once all three of these criteria are met:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and
3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. 

Over 2,000 US deaths were reported so far in May due to COVID.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average is 47,603, down from 48,585 yesterday, and down from the recent peak of 69,881 on April 13, 2021. This is the lowest since October 8, 2020, but well above the post-summer surge low of 34,668.

The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.

This data is also from the CDC.

The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.