RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2021 03:54:00 PM
Sunday, July 25, 2021
July 25th COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations
Note: Cases and Deaths not updated on Sundays.
The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 3rd.
The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 21st.
This data is from the CDC.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.
Total doses administered: 341,818,968, as of a week ago 337,740,358. Average doses last week: 0.58 million per day.
KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.
Total doses administered: 341,818,968, as of a week ago 337,740,358. Average doses last week: 0.58 million per day.
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | Yesterday | Week Ago | Goal | |
| Percent over 18, One Dose | 69.0% | 68.8% | 68.2% | ≥70.0%1,2 |
| Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions) | 163.0 | 162.7 | 161.2 | ≥1601 |
| New Cases per Day3🚩 | 47,455 | 44,063 | 30,682 | ≤5,0002 |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 24,252 | 23,654 | 17,724 | ≤3,0002 |
| Deaths per Day3🚩 | 253 | 249 | 216 | ≤502 |
| 1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met (even if late). | ||||
KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.
Next up are Florida at 67.6%, Utah at 67.1%, Wisconsin at 66.8%, Nebraska at 66.7%, South Dakota at 65.7%, Kansas at 65.6%, Iowa at 65.1%, Nevada at 64.6% and Arizona at 63.9%.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of hospitalizations reported.
This data is from the CDC.
FOMC Preview: Probably Too Soon for Hints on Tapering
by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2021 07:59:00 AM
Expectations are there will be no change to rate policy when the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Analysts will be looking for any hints as to when the Fed will start to taper asset purchases, although it is probably too early - especially given possible economic downside risks due to the resurgence in COVID cases - for the Fed to drop hints on tapering this week.
Here are some comments from Goldman Sachs economists on the timing of tapering:
Fed officials have said that they intend to signal that tapering is coming “well in advance,” a phrase they also used in reference to the start of balance sheet runoff in 2017. That precedent suggests that “well in advance” means two meetings worth of hints before the formal announcement, consistent with our expectation of a first hint in September, a second hint in November, and a formal announcement of tapering in December.Analysts will also be looking for comments on inflation, although the Fed is probably not too concerned with inflation right now. Some of the recent increase in inflation was due to base effects (prices declined at the beginning of the pandemic), and some probably due to transitory effects related to supply bottlenecks.
Note: No projections will be released at this meeting. However, for review, here are the June FOMC projections.
Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase at a 8.6% annual rate in Q2 (to be released this coming Thursday). This is lower than most forecasts when the Fed last met in June.
So the FOMC projections for 2021 may now be a little on the high side compared to Wall Street.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| June 2021 | 6.8 to 7.3 | 2.8 to 3.8 | 2.0 to 2.5 | |
| Mar 2021 | 5.8 to 6.6 | 3.0 to 3.8 | 2.0 to 2.5 | |
Note that the unemployment rate doesn't remotely capture the economic damage to the labor market. Not only are there 3.7 million more people currently unemployed than prior to the pandemic, over 3.4 million people have left the labor force since February 2020. And millions more are being supported by various provisions of the disaster relief acts.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The decline in the unemployment rate depends on both job growth, and the participation rate. A strong labor market will probably encourage people to return to the labor force, and the improvements in the unemployment rate might be slower than some expect.
As of May 2021, PCE inflation was up 3.9% from May 2020.
PCE core inflation was up 3.4% in May year-over-year.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| June 2021 | 4.4 to 4.8 | 3.5 to 4.0 | 3.2 to 3.8 | |
| Mar 2021 | 4.2 to 4.7 | 3.6 to 4.0 | 3.2 to 3.8 | |
The decline in the unemployment rate depends on both job growth, and the participation rate. A strong labor market will probably encourage people to return to the labor force, and the improvements in the unemployment rate might be slower than some expect.
As of May 2021, PCE inflation was up 3.9% from May 2020.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| June 2021 | 3.1 to 3.5 | 1.9 to 2.3 | 2.0 to 2.2 | |
| Mar 2021 | 2.2 to 2.4 | 1.8 to 2.1 | 2.0 to 2.2 | |
PCE core inflation was up 3.4% in May year-over-year.
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| June 2021 | 2.9 to 3.1 | 1.9 to 2.3 | 2.0 to 2.2 | |
| Mar 2021 | 2.0 to 2.3 | 1.9 to 2.1 | 2.0 to 2.2 | |
Saturday, July 24, 2021
July 24th COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations
by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2021 05:13:00 PM
The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 3rd.
The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 22nd.
This data is from the CDC.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.
Total doses administered: 341,039,972, as of a week ago 337,239,448. Average doses last week: 0.54 million per day.
KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.
Total doses administered: 341,039,972, as of a week ago 337,239,448. Average doses last week: 0.54 million per day.
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | Yesterday | Week Ago | Goal | |
| Percent over 18, One Dose | 68.8% | 68.7% | 68.1% | ≥70.0%1,2 |
| Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions) | 162.7 | 162.4 | 161.0 | ≥1601 |
| New Cases per Day3🚩 | 47,455 | 44,063 | 30,682 | ≤5,0002 |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 23,616 | 22,468 | 16,960 | ≤3,0002 |
| Deaths per Day3🚩 | 253 | 249 | 216 | ≤502 |
| 1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met (even if late). | ||||
KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.
Next up are Florida at 67.2%, Utah at 67.1%, Wisconsin at 66.7%, Nebraska at 66.7%, South Dakota at 65.6%, Iowa at 65.1%, Nevada at 64.4% and Arizona at 63.8%.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.
Almost 65,000 new cases were reported so far today.
This data is from the CDC.
Schedule for Week of July 25, 2021
by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2021 08:11:00 AM
The key report this week is the advance estimate of Q2 GDP.
Other key reports include June New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays for June, and Case-Shiller house prices for May.
For manufacturing, the July Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.
The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.
The consensus is for 800 thousand SAAR, up from 769 thousand in May.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.1% increase in durable goods orders.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May.This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 16.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for May. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. This is the last of the regional surveys for July.
10:00 AM: The Q2 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter (advance estimate), and annual update. The consensus is that real GDP increased 8.6% annualized in Q2, up from 6.4% in Q1.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 400 thousand from 419 thousand last week.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for June. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, June 2020. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in personal income, and for a 0.7% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.6%.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for July). The consensus is for a reading of 80.8.
Friday, July 23, 2021
July 23rd COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations
by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 04:50:00 PM
The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 6th.
The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 25th.
This data is from the CDC.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.
Total doses administered: 340,363,922, as of a week ago 336,604,158. Average doses last week: 0.54 million per day.
KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.
Total doses administered: 340,363,922, as of a week ago 336,604,158. Average doses last week: 0.54 million per day.
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | Yesterday | Week Ago | Goal | |
| Percent over 18, One Dose | 68.7% | 68.6% | 68.0% | ≥70.0%1,2 |
| Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions) | 162.4 | 162.2 | 160.7 | ≥1601 |
| New Cases per Day3🚩 | 43,729 | 40,246 | 28,964 | ≤5,0002 |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 22,246 | 21,269 | 16,297 | ≤3,0002 |
| Deaths per Day3🚩 | 250 | 223 | 211 | ≤502 |
| 1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met (even if late). | ||||
KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.
Next up are Utah at 67.1%, Florida at 67.1%, Wisconsin at 66.7%, Nebraska at 66.4%, South Dakota at 65.5%, Iowa at 65.0% and Nevada at 64.2%.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.
Almost 65,000 new cases were reported so far today.
This data is from the CDC.
July Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sales to Continue Free-Fall"
by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 02:46:00 PM
From WardsAuto: July U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Continue Free-Fall from Springtime Peak (pay content)
Wards notes low inventories and supply issues (mircochips) are impacting sales.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for July (Red).
The Wards forecast of 14.8 million SAAR, would be down about 4% from last month, and up 1% from a year ago (sales were recovering in June 2020 from the depths of the pandemic).
REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey June 2021
by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 11:40:00 AM
Some interesting information from the REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey June 2021
Several metrics indicate that demand is softening although the market is still broadly strong. With limited supply in the market, homes typically sold within 17 days (24 days one year ago), as buyer competition continues. However, the REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index decreased from 77 in May 2021 to 71 (moderately strong conditions) in June 2021 while the REALTORS® Seller Traffic Index remains below 50 which is “weak” traffic compared to the level one year ago. On average, a home sold had more than 4 offers, slightly lower than the average of 5 offers in last month’s survey. REALTORS® expect home prices in the next three months to increase nearly 4% from one year ago compared to 5% outlook in last month’s survey. Respondents expect sales in the next three months to increase nearly 1% from last year’s sales level compared to the 2% outlook in last month’s survey.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.This map, from the June NAR report, shows buyer traffic is still "moderately strong" to "very strong" just about everywhere.
However this is less demand than a few months ago.
As the NAR noted: "demand is softening although the market is still broadly strong".
The second map is from the April report.In April, buyer traffic was very strong just about everywhere.
There has also been a shift in seller traffic, with more traffic in many states (compare map from April on page 3 to the map from June also on page 3).
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 8%
by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 11:19:00 AM
The BEA will release the advance estimate of Q2 GDP next Thursday. The consensus forecast is for real GDP to increase 8.2% in Q2, from Q1, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).
From BofA:
We expect growth of 8.5% qoq saar in 2Q from 6.4% qoq saar in 1Q. [July 23 estimate]From Goldman Sachs:
emphasis added
We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +8¼% (qoq ar). [July 22 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.2% for 2021:Q2 and 4.1% for 2021:Q3. [July 23 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.6 percent on July 20, up from 7.5 percent on July 16. [July 20 estimate]
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly
by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 08:55:00 AM
Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.
This data is as of July 20th.
From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearances Flat for Second Consecutive Week
Not much to report with this week’s snapshot of our McDash Flash daily Forbearance Tracker data, as we’ve come to expect in the mid-month period.
Last week’s slight net decline of just 1,000 was matched by a 2,000 increase in the number of active forbearance plans over the past seven days, leaving volumes essentially flat for the second week in a row.
As of July 20, 1.86 million borrowers remain in COVID-19 forbearance plans, making up 3.5% of all active mortgages and 2.1% of GSE, 6.2% of FHA/VA and 4.1% of Portfolio/PLS loans.
What weekly improvement there was – among GSE forbearance plans (-8,000) – was more than offset by a 9,000 rise among portfolio/PLS forbearances and 1,000 additional FHA plans.
Click on graph for larger image.
All in, this puts the number of loans in active forbearance down 198,000 (-9.6%) from the same time last month. Some 230,000 plans are still scheduled to be reviewed for extension/removal in July, down from roughly 400,000 last week.
Restarts remained elevated this week, while new forbearance plan volumes continue remain low. Removals held steady week to week and remain on the lower end of the spectrum – as we typically see in the middle of the month – while plan extensions hit the lowest level since late February.
emphasis added
Thursday, July 22, 2021
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 9% Compared to Same Week in 2019
by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2021 06:46:00 PM
Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.
The occupancy rate is down 8.7% compared to the same week in 2019.
U.S. weekly hotel occupancy reached its highest level since October 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through July 17.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
July 11-17, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 71.0% (-8.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$139.19 (+1.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$98.87 (-7.1%)
Despite a four-point, week-over-week improvement in occupancy, ADR dipped slightly from the all-time high achieved the previous week.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).
Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid.
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
With solid leisure travel, the Summer months should have decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel. In another recent article, a CoStar analyst points out "Leisure Demand Continues To Do the Heavy Lifting for Industry".
