by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 07:37:00 PM

First, on the economic impact of the delta variant from BofA today:

'Our big data business cycle indicator is at risk of a regime shift from "boom" to "soft patch" because of the Delta wave.'

Florida and Texas are in a serious crisis (see graphs and comments at bottom).

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 6th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 16th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 22nd.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 353,859,894, as of a week ago 348,966,419. Average doses last week: 0.70 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose✅	71.5%	71.3%	70.4%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	167.4	167.1	165.6	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	114,190	112,751	96,453	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	62,041	59,755	45,456	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	492	479	406	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Short term goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 21 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico and Rhode Island are at 80%+, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 69.7%, Nebraska at 68.8%, Wisconsin at 68.5%, Kansas at 68.0%, South Dakota at 67.6%, Nevada at 67.4%, Texas at 67.1%, and Iowa at 66.8%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The current wave is already the second worst for cases although there was limited testing during the first wave.

The second graphs shows hospitalizations in Florida.

Hospitalizations in Florida are already at a record level, and Florida is running out of ICU beds.

According to data from the HHS on hospital utilizations, over 90% of ICU beds in Florida are occupied, and more than half of those are COVID patients.  Grim

And on Texas, from the Texas Tribune: “I am frightened by what is coming”: Texas hospitals could soon be overwhelmed by COVID-19 caseload, officials say

Texas hospitals are on the brink of catastrophe, close to being completely overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, leaders of some of the state’s largest hospitals told state lawmakers Tuesday.

Official after official used their strongest descriptions to get the point across to legislators: Hospitalizations are rising too fast for them to keep up with, and it may be too late to do anything about it.

“While more vaccination is the only thing that can ultimately bring this pandemic to an end, we need more decisive actions now to prevent a catastrophe the likes of which we only imagined last year,” Dr. Esmaeil Porsa, CEO of Harris Health System in Houston, told the Texas Senate Health and Human Services Committee on Tuesday.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 02:14:00 PM

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the South Carolina Realtors for the entire state:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 9,658, down 9.5% from 10,675 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 12,869,, down 40.4% from 21,592 in July 2020.

Months of Supply for attached was 1.4 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.6 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 15.3% from the previous month, and up 23.1% from the record low in May 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 12:06:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Maryland Realtors for the entire state:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 9,685, down 3.2% from 10,001 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 10,164, down 30.8% from 14,685 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.1 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.0 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 18.9% from last month, and up 64% from the all time low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 10:10:00 AM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.

The occupancy rate is down 8.3% compared to the same week in 2019.

From CoStar: STR: Seasonality, Delta Variant Worries Lead to Lower US Hotel Occupancy, Rates

Reflecting seasonality and greater concern around the Delta variant, U.S. hotel occupancy and average daily rate (ADR) dipped from the previous weeks, according to STR‘s latest data through August 7.

August 1-7, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 68.0% (-8.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $140.97 (+5.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $95.89 (-3.6%)
...
*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

With solid leisure travel, the Summer months have had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - especially with the sharp increase in COVID pandemic cases and hospitalizations.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 09:13:00 AM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Minnesota Realtors®:

Total Residential Units Sold in July 2021 were 9,615, down 8.7% from 10,530 in July 2020.

Active Residential Listings in July 2021 were 11,854, down 29.7% from 16,861 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.5 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.3 Months in July 2020.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Minnesota Realtors® shows inventory in Minnesota since 2012. Inventory had been trending down, and then was somewhat flat for a few years, and then declined significantly during the pandemic.

Active inventory was up 8.6% from the previous month, and up 43.3% seasonally from the all time low in February 2021.   Usually, at this time of the year, we'd expect active inventory of around 23,000 in Minnesota, so current inventory is still extremely low.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 375,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 385,000 to 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,250, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 394,000 to 394,500.
emphasis added

This does not include the 104,572 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 94,427 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 394,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,866,000 (SA) from 2,980,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 4,820,787 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,156,982 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 3,852,569 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 4,246,207.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 09:00:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 370 thousand from 385 thousand last week.

• At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in PPI, and a 0.5% increase in core PPI.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 06:54:00 PM

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 6th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 18th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 25th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 353,205,544, as of a week ago 348,102,478. Average doses last week: 0.73 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose✅	71.3%	71.2%	70.1%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	167.1	166.9	165.3	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	113,357	109,539	91,192	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	59,172	56,877	43,244	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	452	433	369	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Short term goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 21 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico and Rhode Island are at 80%+, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 69.7%, Nebraska at 68.7%, Wisconsin at 68.4%, Kansas at 67.8%, South Dakota at 67.5%, Nevada at 67.3%, and Iowa at 66.8%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 05:30:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Des Moines Area Association of REALTORS®:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 1,703, down 8.7% from 1,866 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 2,086, down 25.1% from 2,785 in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 13.5% from last month, and up 20% from the all time low in April 2021. Usually inventory peaks in the summer at between 3,500 and 4,100 in Des Moines, so this is still very low.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 03:48:00 PM

The BLS reported this morning:

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 6.0 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 267.789 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

• In 2020, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 253.412.

The 2020 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.

Note: The year labeled for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year).

CPI-W was up 6.0% year-over-year in July, and although this is very early - we need the data for August and September - my current guess is COLA will probably be around 5.5% this year, the largest increase since 5.8% in 2008 - and it is possible this will be the largest increase since 1982 (7.4%).

Contribution and Benefit Base

The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2020 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2020. If wages increased the same as in 2019, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $148,200 in 2022, from the current $142,800.

Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).