RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2021 07:58:00 AM
Monday, August 16, 2021
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
This data is as of August 15th.
Click on graph for larger image.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).
The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average.
The 7-day average is down 21.5% from the same day in 2019 (78.5% of 2019). (Dashed line)
There was a slow increase from the bottom starting in May 2020 - and then TSA data picked up in 2021 - but the dashed line has mostly sideways over the last seven weeks.
The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.
IMPORTANT: OpenTable notes: "we’ve updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year." Thanks!
Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:
This data is updated through August 14, 2021.
This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."
Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.
Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining was generally picking up, but has moved down recently. The 7-day average for the US is down 11% compared to 2019.
----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).
Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:This data is updated through August 14, 2021.
This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."
Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.
Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining was generally picking up, but has moved down recently. The 7-day average for the US is down 11% compared to 2019.
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021.
The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 12th.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $93 million last week, down about 56% from the median for the week.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $93 million last week, down about 56% from the median for the week.
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).
Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels. With solid leisure travel, the Summer months have had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel.
This data is through August 7th. The occupancy rate is down 8.3% compared to the same week in 2019. Note: Occupancy was up year-over-year, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.Blue is for 2020. Red is for 2021.
As of August 6th, gasoline supplied was down 5.1% compared to the same week in 2019.
There have been four weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019.
This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.
There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.
This data is through August 14th for the United States and several selected cities.The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.
IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.
According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 101% of the January 2020 level.
Strangely, New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph). I'd put much more weight on subway usage!
----- New York City Subway Usage -----
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015.
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are over 12 million subway turnstile entries per week - and generally increasing.
This data is through Friday, August 13th.
Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
This data is through Friday, August 13th.
Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
Sunday, August 15, 2021
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2021 06:21:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of August 15, 2021
Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 29.0, down from 43.0.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 6 and DOW futures are down 53 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $68.12 per barrel and Brent at $70.29 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $43, and Brent was at $45 - so WTI oil prices are UP over 50% year-over-year (oil prices collapsed at the beginning of the pandemic).
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.18 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.16 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.02 per gallon year-over-year.
August 15th COVID-19: 2nd Worst Wave Continues
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2021 03:03:00 PM
Note: Cases and Deaths are not updated on Sundays.
The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 5th.
The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 14th.
The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 14th.
This data is from the CDC.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.
Total doses administered: 356,433,665, as of a week ago 351,400,930. Average doses last week: 0.72 million per day.
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | Yesterday | Week Ago | Goal | |
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 50.7% | 50.6% | 50.2% | ≥70.0%1 |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 168.4 | 168.1 | 166.5 | ≥2321 |
| New Cases per Day3🚩 | 119,523 | 117,301 | 103,422 | ≤5,0002 |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 66,428 | 66,206 | 52,507 | ≤3,0002 |
| Deaths per Day3🚩 | 544 | 511 | 449 | ≤502 |
| 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. | ||||
IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).
KUDOS to the residents of the 6 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.0%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maryland.
The following 19 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: New Jersey at 59.7%, New Hampshire, Washington, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska and Florida at 50.3%.
Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Illinois at 49.7%, Michigan at 49.6%, South Dakota at 47.9, Ohio at 47.3%, Kentucky at 46.7%, Arizona at 46.4%, Kansas at 46.4%, Alaska at 46.2%, Utah at 45.8%, and Nevada at 45.8%.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of hospitalizations reported. Note that the shaded area will probably be revised up.
This data is from the CDC.
Memphis Real Estate in July: Sales Up 21% YoY, Inventory Down 14% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2021 11:31:00 AM
I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.
From the Memphis Area Association of REALTORS®:
Closed sales (existing Single and condo) in July 2021 were 2,300, up 20.9% from 1,903 in July 2020.
Active Listings in July 2021 were 2,514, down 14.4% from 2,938 in July 2020.
Inventory in July was up 12.1% from the previous month, and up 27.2% from the record low in February 2021.
Nashville Real Estate in July: Sales Down 8% YoY, Inventory Down 43% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2021 11:18:00 AM
I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.
From the Greater Nashville REALTORS®:
Closed sales (single and condo) in July 2021 were 4,089, down 7.8% from 4,433 in July 2020.
Active Listings in July 2021 were 4,105, down 43.0% from 7,199 in July 2020.
Inventory in July was up 21.6% from the previous month, and up 30.0% from the record low in May 2021.
Albuquerque Real Estate in July: Sales Down 11% YoY, Inventory Down 40% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2021 09:45:00 AM
I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.
From the Greater Albuquerque Association of REALTORS®:
Closed sales (attached and detached) in July 2021 were 1,443, down 10.6% from 1,614 in July 2020.
Active Listings in July 2021 were 1,062, down 40.1% from 1,772 in July 2020.
Months of Supply (detached) was 0.8 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.5 Months in July 2020.
Inventory in July was down 4.5% from the previous month, and up 13.6% from the record low in March 2021.
Saturday, August 14, 2021
August 14th COVID-19: Over 70,000 Hospitalized Today, Over 800 Deaths
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2021 06:19:00 PM
Experts currently think we need somewhere between 70% and 85% of the total population fully vaccinated to achieve "herd immunity". Vermont has the highest percentage of fully vaccinated at 67.0% - so there is a long way to go.
The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 5th.
The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 14th.
The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 14th.
This data is from the CDC.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.
Total doses administered: 355,768,825, as of a week ago 350,627,188. Average doses last week: 0.73 million per day.
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | Yesterday | Week Ago | Goal | |
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 50.6% | 50.5% | 50.2% | ≥70.0%1 |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 168.1 | 167.7 | 166.8 | ≥2321 |
| New Cases per Day3🚩 | 119,523 | 117,301 | 103,422 | ≤5,0002 |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 66,063 | 64,381 | 50,101 | ≤3,0002 |
| Deaths per Day3🚩 | 544 | 511 | 449 | ≤502 |
| 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. | ||||
KUDOS to the residents of the 5 states that have achieved 60% of population fully vaccinated: Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.
The following states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Maryland, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Washington, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska and Florida at 50.2%.
Next up are Illinois at 49.6%, Michigan at 49.5%, South Dakota at 47.8, Ohio at 47.2%, Kentucky at 46.7%, Arizona at 46.3%, Kansas at 46.3%, Alaska at 46.2%, Utah at 45.8%, and Nevada at 45.7%.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.
The current wave is already the second worst for cases although there was limited testing during the first wave.
Jacksonville Real Estate in July: Sales Down 16% YoY, Inventory Down 40% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2021 09:52:00 AM
I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.
From the Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®:
Closed sales (attached and detached) in July 2021 were 3,149, down 16.2% from 3,759 in July 2020.
Active Listings in July 2021 were 4,668, down 40.6% from 7,852 in July 2020.
Months of Supply was 1.4 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.8 Months in July 2020.
Inventory in July was up 1.8% from the previous month, and up 7.1% from the record low in May 2021.
Schedule for Week of August 15, 2021
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2021 08:11:00 AM
The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Retail sales.
For manufacturing, the Industrial Production report will be released.
The BLS will release the preliminary employment benchmark revision.
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 29.0, down from 43.0.
8:30 AM: Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for 0.2% decrease in retail sales.This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline)
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July.This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 75.7%.
10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 80, unchanged from 80. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
12:00 PM: MBA Q2 National Delinquency Survey (expected)
1:30 PM: Fed Chair Powell speaks: Conversation with the Chair: A Virtual Teacher Town Hall Meeting
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for July. This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.
The consensus is for 1.602 million SAAR, down from 1.643 million SAAR in June.
10:00 AM: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, July 27-28, 2021
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 360 thousand from 375 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 25.0, up from 21.9.
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2021
Friday, August 13, 2021
August 13th COVID-19: Over 140,000 New Cases Reported Today
by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 05:30:00 PM
Congratulations to the residents of California and Pennsylvania on joining the 80% club! Go for 90%!!! (80% of adults have had at least one shot).
The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 6th.
The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 15th.
The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 19th.
This data is from the CDC.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.
Total doses administered: 354,777,950, as of a week ago 349,787,479. Average doses last week: 0.71 million per day.
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | Yesterday | Week Ago | Goal | |
| Percent over 18, One Dose✅ | 71.6% | 71.5% | 70.6% | ≥70.0%1,2 |
| Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions) | 167.7 | 167.4 | 165.9 | ≥1601 |
| New Cases per Day3🚩 | 116,508 | 114,208 | 100,981 | ≤5,0002 |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 64,231 | 62,117 | 47,709 | ≤3,0002 |
| Deaths per Day3🚩 | 514 | 491 | 424 | ≤502 |
| 1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Short term goal met (even if late). | ||||
KUDOS to the residents of the 21 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California are at 80%+, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida and D.C. are all over 70%.
Next up are Utah at 69.7%, Nebraska at 68.9%, Wisconsin at 68.6%, Kansas at 68.1%, South Dakota at 67.8%, Nevada at 67.6%, Texas at 67.5%, and Iowa at 67.1%.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.
The current wave is already the second worst for cases although there was limited testing during the first wave.
