by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 11:20:00 AM

From BofA:

3Q GDP growth is currently coming in at 4.5%, leaving annual growth to slip to 5.9% this year. We think the Delta variant is a large reason for the soft patch as can be seen by the pullback in spending on leisure services. But we also have to consider the possibility of more permanent supply-side constraints and greater precautionary savings. [August 20 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3. [August 18 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.5% for 2021:Q3. News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2021:Q3 by 0.3 percentage point. [August 20 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 6.1 percent on August 18, down from 6.2 percent on August 17. [August 18 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 10:19:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of August 17th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearances Edge Slightly Higher

After dropping by more than 150,000 over the past two weeks, we once again saw active forbearance plans edge up slightly in what has become a well-established mid-month trend.

The week’s 11,000 overall increase was driven entirely by a 12,000 rise in plans among Portfolio/PLS loans and offset by a 1,000 decline in GSE forbearances. FHA/VA plan volumes held flat from the week prior.

According to Black Knight’s McDash Flash forbearance tracker, 1.75 million (3.3% of) borrowers remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans as of August 17. That population includes 1.9% of GSE, 5.8% of FHA/VA and 4.0% of portfolio-held and privately securitized mortgages.

Plan volumes are now down 110,000 (-5.9%) from the same time last month, with the rate of improvement slowing slightly in recent weeks.

Total plan starts were higher this week, primarily from a rise in re-start activity. New plan starts, though up slightly from last week, remain below the 5-week moving average.

Click on graph for larger image.

Meanwhile, plan removals hit their lowest weekly total since late May, but mainly due to the fact that review activity was low in general this past week.

Of those plans reviewed since last Tuesday, 41% resulted in exits, up from the 36% removal rate the same time last month. Activity is poised to pick up significantly with the first wave of final forbearance expirations only weeks away.

Some 200,000 plans are currently slated for review through the final two weeks of August, with approximately one-third of those reaching their final expiration based on current allowable forbearance term lengths. Volumes of final expirations will increase significantly in September and October.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 08:26:00 AM

Note: At the beginning of the pandemic, the delinquency rate increased sharply (see table below).   Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus.

From Black Knight: Black Knight: Overall Mortgage Delinquencies Edge Closer to Pre-Pandemic Levels, But 1.45M Remain Seriously Past Due as Foreclosure Moratorium Expired at End of July

• The national delinquency rate saw a 5% reduction in July and at 4.14% is now down by nearly half since May of last year

• Delinquencies have now improved in 12 of the last 14 months, with the two monthly increases being calendar-related as opposed to being indicative of worsening performance

• While overall delinquency volumes continue to edge closer to pre-pandemic levels, the number of serious delinquencies were still significantly elevated as federal foreclosure moratoria expired at the end of July

• Some 1.45 million borrowers remained 90 or more days past due – but not yet in foreclosure – entering August, more than 1 million more than at the onset of the pandemic

• Foreclosure starts remained muted in July, the final month of the foreclosure moratorium on federally backed mortgages, down 58% from the same time last year

• While the number of loans in active foreclosure fell by 5,000 to yet another record low, potential foreclosure activity in the coming months warrants close observation

• After rising in June, prepayment activity slid by 11% in July; however, low 30-year rates in recent weeks have resulted in a modest resurgence in refinance incentive which may impact August prepay numbers
emphasis added

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 5.2% in July compared to June, and decreased 40% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 4.0% in July and were down 26% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.14% in July, down from 4.37% in June.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in July to 0.26%, from 0.27% in June.

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 1,486,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 50,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	July  2021	June 2021	July 2020	July 2019
Delinquent	4.14%	4.37%	6.91%	3.46%
In Foreclosure	0.26%	0.27%	0.36%	0.49%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	2,206,000	2,320,000	3,692,000	1,807,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	140,000	145,000	190,000	258,000
Total Properties	2,346,000	2,466,000	3,881,000	2,065,000

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 06:11:00 PM

I'm gathering existing home data for many local markets, and I'm watching inventory very closely this year.

The table below shows some local market data for July.

As I noted in Some thoughts on Housing Inventory

The key for housing in 2021 will be inventory. If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in house prices. However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation.

Although inventory in these areas is down about 33% year-over-year, inventory is up 13.5% month-to-month (and up 26.5% over the last two months).  Seasonally we'd usually expect a small increase in inventory from June to July - so some of this increase is seasonal (as opposed to a shift in the market).   

It does appear inventory bottomed seasonally in March.  And inventory is still historically very low, but increasing more than just seasonal.

 

Existing Home Inventory
	Jul-21	Jun-21	Jul-20	YoY	MoM
Albuquerque	1,062	1,112	1,772	-40.1%	-4.5%
Atlanta	8,668	7,787	15,442	-43.9%	11.3%
Austin	3,294	2,265	5,309	-38.0%	45.4%
Boston	3,719	3,822	4,853	-23.4%	-2.7%
Charlotte	4,073	3,462	7,045	-42.2%	17.6%
Colorado	11,126	10,405	21,959	-49.3%	6.9%
Denver	4,056	3,122	6,449	-37.1%	29.9%
Des Moines	2,086	1,838	2,785	-25.1%	13.5%
Houston	27,268	24,225	34,364	-20.6%	12.6%
Jacksonville	4,668	4,586	7,852	-40.6%	1.8%
Las Vegas	3,669	3,029	6,387	-42.6%	21.1%
Maryland	10,164	8,550	14,685	-30.8%	18.9%
Memphis	2,514	2,242	2,938	-14.4%	12.1%
Minnesota	11,854	10,919	16,861	-29.7%	8.6%
Nashville	4,105	3,377	7,199	-43.0%	21.6%
New Hampshire	2,103	2,305	3,521	-40.3%	-8.8%
North Texas	12,363	9,747	18,470	-33.1%	26.8%
Northwest	7,948	6,358	10,259	-22.5%	25.0%
Phoenix	6,746	5,866	8,010	-15.8%	15.0%
Portland	3,180	2,722	4,133	-23.1%	16.8%
Rhode Island	2,110	1,985	2,775	-24.0%	6.3%
Sacramento	1,602	1,297	1,266	26.5%	23.5%
San Diego	3,349	3,369	5,763	-41.9%	-0.6%
Santa Clara	1,820	1,767	1,950	-6.7%	3.0%
South Carolina	12,869	11,163	21,592	-40.4%	15.3%
Total1	152,360	134,198	227,190	-32.9%	13.5%
1excluding Denver (included in Colorado)

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 03:33:00 PM

Note: Several readers have asked why their state health department data doesn't exactly match the CDC data for a given state.   Sometimes the reason is a different denominator (total population vs. 12+ for example), sometimes the reason isn't clear.  These are questions for the state health departments. This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 2nd.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 9th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since April 24th.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 359,623,380, as of a week ago 353,859,894. Average doses last week: 0.82 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	51.1%	51.0%	50.4%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	169.6	169.2	167.4	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	133,055	130,562	116,740	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	76,077	74,755	62,230	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	640	586	578	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 7 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.2%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and New Jersey at 60.1%.

The following 17 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: New Hampshire at 59.1%, Washington, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa  and Illinois at 50.1%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Michigan at 49.7%, South Dakota at 48.2%, Ohio at 47.5%, Kentucky at 47.1%, Kansas at 46.8%, Arizona at 46.6%, Alaska at 46.5%, Utah at 46.3%, and Nevada at 46.3%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 02:26:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For the Austin-Round Rock area: Central Texas Housing Market Report; July 2021

Residential home sales decreased across the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) for the first time since May 2020, according to the Austin Board of REALTORS® July 2021 Central Texas Housing Report. Despite the dip, the five-county MSA was just 445 homes shy of breaking the all-time home sales record set in July 2020.

Closed sales in July 2021 were 4,041, down 9.9% from 4,486 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 3,294, down 38.0% from 5,309 in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 45% from last month, and up 174% from the all time low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 12:46:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):

1) Overall sales were at 8,715 in July, down 15.4% from 10,303 in July 2020.

2) Active inventory was at 6,746, down 15.8% from 8,010 in July 2020.

3) Months of supply decreased to 1.24 in July from 1.26 in July 2020. This is low.

Inventory in July was up 15.0% from last month, and up 63% from the record low in February 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 11:59:00 AM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For for the entire state of Rhode Island:

Closed sales (single family and condos) in July 2021 were 1,305, down 9.3% from 1,439 in July 2020.

Active Listings (single family and condos) in July 2021 were 2,110, down 24.0% from 2,775 in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 6.3% from last month, and up 84.6% from the all time low in May 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 11:33:00 AM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.

The occupancy rate is down 8.3% compared to the same week in 2019.

From CoStar: STR: Seasonal Demand Trends Weigh Down Weekly US Hotel Occupancy

U.S. hotel occupancy and average daily rate (ADR) dipped from previous weeks, according to STR‘s latest data through August 14.

August 8-14, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 65.7% (-8.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $139.18 (+5.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $91.45 (-3.0%)

While the metrics were down week over week, comparisons with 2019 remained consistent, which is further evidence of seasonality in the data as more schools return to class and leisure demand wanes. Concern around COVID-19 cases also persists.
...
*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid - but, according to STR, is starting to "wane" seasonally.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

With solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - especially with the sharp increase in COVID pandemic cases and hospitalizations.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2021 10:39:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2021

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.47 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. The delinquency rate was down 91 basis points from the first quarter of 2021 and down 275 basis points from one year ago.

"Mortgage delinquencies across all loan types - conventional, FHA, and VA - reached their lowest levels since the first quarter of 2020," said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis. "The drop in the delinquency rate for FHA loans and VA loans was the largest quarterly decline for both in the history of MBA's survey dating back to 1979."
...
Walsh added, "Much of the second-quarter improvement can be traced to later-stage delinquent loans - those 90 days or past due, but not in foreclosure. In fact, the 90-day delinquency rate dropped by 72 basis points, which is another record decline in the survey. It appears that borrowers in later stages of delinquency are recovering due to several factors, including improved employment and other economic conditions, the availability of home retention workout options after forbearance, and a strong housing market that is bringing additional alternatives to distressed homeowners."

Walsh noted that foreclosure moratoria were still in place through the second quarter, resulting in the lowest foreclosure inventory recorded since 1981.

"Once the foreclosure moratoria lift, and forbearance plans expire over the course of the next several months, we expect many homeowners to take advantage of available workout options to avoid the foreclosure process," said Walsh.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  Overall delinquencies decreased in Q2.

From the MBA:

Compared to the first quarter of 2021, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate decreased 5 basis points to 1.41 percent and the 60-day delinquency rate decreased 15 basis points to 0.52 percent, both at their lowest levels in the history of the survey. The 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 72 basis points to 3.53 percent.
...
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 0.51 percent, down 3 basis points from the first quarter of 2021 and 17 basis points lower than one year ago. This is the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the fourth quarter of 1981. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the second quarter remained unchanged from last quarter at 0.04 percent.

This sharp increase last year in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further, and was at the lowest level since 1981.