by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2021 08:58:00 AM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Stuck in The Middle

Rates are on hold until the next chapter is written in the complex saga of covid versus the market. This isn't to say rates perfectly flat--simply that the prevailing momentum has been sideways for the past few weeks.

Since mortgage rates only change once or twice a day, we can use 10yr Treasury yields to see finer detail. This entire week took place in the fairly narrow range of 1.29 to 1.21, and it ended with yields precisely in the middle at 1.25%.
...
What does all this mean in plain English? Rates are low--much lower than most anyone expected at this point in the year. The key reason is "delta" and Fed's patient approach to changing rate-friendly policies. The lingering concerns about the nature of the post-covid economy also make the list. [30 year fixed 2.93%]
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30 year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac).   

Go to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods.

30 year mortgage rates are just above the record lows in 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2021 04:50:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

Here is a summary post for many markets: Existing Home Inventory in July: Local Markets

For for the entire state Indiana:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 9,585, down 6.5% from 10,256 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 8,874, down 24.6% from 11,762 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.1 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.6 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 14.6% from last month, and up 50.5% from the all time low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2021 04:46:00 PM

This is the 3rd consecutive day with over 1 million doses administered.

The CDC is the source for all data.

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 1st.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 7th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since March 25th.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 361,684,564, as of a week ago 355,768,825. Average doses last week: 0.85 million per day. 

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	51.3%	51.2%	50.6%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	170.4	170.0	168.1	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	137,188	134,859	122,769	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	80,101	78,944	66,996	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	738	688	600	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 7 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.3%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and New Jersey at 60.3%.

The following 17 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Washington at 59.3%, New Hampshire, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa  and Illinois at 50.3%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Michigan at 49.9%, South Dakota at 48.4%, Ohio at 47.7%, Kentucky at 47.5%, Kansas at 47.0%, Arizona at 46.9%, Utah at 46.7%, Alaska at 46.6%, and Nevada at 46.5%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q2 GDP, July New and Existing Home sales, and Personal Income and Outlays for July.

For manufacturing, the August Richmond and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on "The Economic Outlook" at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

----- Monday, August 23rd -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.81 million SAAR, down slightly from 5.86 million last month.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report 5.86 million SAAR.

----- Tuesday, August 24th -----
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 690 thousand SAAR, up from 676 thousand in June.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

----- Wednesday, August 25th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in durable goods orders.

----- Thursday, August 26th -----
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2021 (second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 6.7% annualized in Q2, up from the advance estimate of 6.5% in Q2.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a increase slightly to 350 thousand from 348 thousand last week.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for August.

Thursday through Saturday: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy

----- Friday, August 27th -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2021. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.

10:00 AM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, The Economic Outlook, At the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for August). The consensus is for a reading of 70.9.

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 03:46:00 PM

The CAR reported: California housing market continues to normalize as home sales and prices curb in July, C.A.R. reports

California’s housing market moderated for the third straight month in July with both home sales and prices tempering from the heated market conditions seen over the past year, while still staying above pre-pandemic levels, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 428,980 in July, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the July pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

July home sales dipped 1.6 percent on a monthly basis from 436,020 in June and were down 2 percent from a year ago, when 437,890 homes were sold on an annualized basis. July’s sales level was the second highest level in a July in the past six years. Despite the downward trend, California home sales maintained a solid year-to-date increase of 27.3 percent.

“The California housing market continues to normalize from the white-hot conditions we experienced at the height of the pandemic with both sales and prices moderating as we slowly transition from the peak home-buying season into the fall,” said C.A.R. President Dave Walsh. “The market remains solid, however, as sales were still the second highest level for a July in the last six years, and the statewide median price continues to perform above last year’s level by double-digits. Housing supply, while improved, remains tight and market competition is still heated with homes flying off the market in record time.”
...
The state housing supply condition continued to improve with active listings reaching the highest level since last October. The number of for-sale properties increased 15.4 percent in July from the prior month as more homes were being listed on the market. Despite an increase in total active listings in July, new listings added in the month dipped slightly for the first time after gaining year-over-year for four straight months.
emphasis added

Note that inventory was up 15.4% from June to July, similar to the increase the previous month. Although the CAR doesn't report inventory, it appears inventory is down about 12% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 03:19:00 PM

Some good news: Cases may be peaking, and this is the second consecutive day with over 1 million doses administered!

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 8th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since April 1st.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 360,634,287, as of a week ago 354,777,950. Average doses last week: 0.84 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	51.2%	51.1%	50.5%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	170.0	169.6	167.7	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	130,926	133,088	119,972	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	78,399	77,214	64,658	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	686	640	585	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 7 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.3%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and New Jersey at 60.2%.

The following 17 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Washington at 59.2%, New Hampshire, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa  and Illinois at 50.2%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Michigan at 49.8%, South Dakota at 48.3%, Ohio at 47.6%, Kentucky at 47.2%, Kansas at 46.9%, Arizona at 46.8%, Alaska at 46.5%, Utah at 46.5%, and Nevada at 46.4%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 11:36:00 AM

Some twitter comments from Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting:

Just surveyed 6,000+ real estate agents across country. Top themes from our 1st ever RESALE agent survey: 1) Buyer fatigue, w/rumblings of remorse. 2) Bidding wars a bit less bonkers. 3) Cash is King & ton of investors. 4) Inventory gridlock. Commentary across country to follow ...

#LosAngeles agent: “20-minute allotted home viewing time slots with offers due next day by noon, & buyers are asked to give up every contingency under the sun.”

#NYC agent: “Luxury home buyers feel the market is overpriced & have backed off.”

#Phoenix agent: “Buyers are nervous they’re overpaying. Sellers are nervous there will be a correction & they missed opportunity to list at a premium. Both sides are crippled with questions & fear.”

#Houston agent: “Some of my clients are waiting to buy due to the high cost/ bidding war. They feel that any house they purchase will be upside down in equity due to the bidding wars that are going on.”

#Boston agent: “Cash is King. More buyers coming to the table with cash for homes priced at $850K+.”

#Bridgeport CT agent: “With the Delta variant, some sellers are hoping for another round of panic buyers.”

#EastBay CA agent: “Finally slowing down, so instead of 40 offers on the homes, we are seeing 6 to 10 offers. Still selling but without the drama.”

#Tampa agent: “Can you imagine how crazy we’re going to be when Canadians are allowed to come in. Their money is burning a hole in their pocket, & they'll be headed here to Florida to spend it.”

#Chicago agent: “Every single weekend since December, I’ve been taking out 1st time buyers ($350k or less). So many offers on the table, & we get declined every single weekend. Just lost 3 more contracts yesterday.”

#Atlanta agent: “Very difficult market for 1st time buyers in $200k to $275k range. Sometimes 50 offers+ & investors are winning! Forget using any assistance programs for 1st time buyers; sellers won’t even consider the offer.”

#Nashville agent: “Some agents write 20 offers for a buyer before they win on a house.”

#Charlotte agent: “Institutional buyers are killing the first-timer.”

#StLouis agent: “Our inventory is choked to almost nothing. People can't list, knowing the lack of homes for sale. We're in gridlock!”

#Columbus OH agent: “Market sucks for FHA buyers. They have almost zero chance to get chosen when cash buyers are going $50k over asking price.”

#Louisville agent: ““All my buyers are paying $15k to $40k over asking. It's the only way to win in these bidding wars. If these people have to sell in 3-5 years due to life changes, they're going to be under water.”

#ColoradoSprings agent: “VA & FHA buyers will be shut out of the market for all intents & purposes unless they have appraisal gap protection.”

#Athens GA agent: “Hard for the average buyer or ‘little man’ to compete. Without cash reserves, buyers do not stand a chance with their offers.”

#Richmond IN agent: “People are making awesome offers to win the multiple offer war, but then trying to renegotiate at inspection time to try & make the price much less than what was accepted.”

#HotSprings AR agent: “At least 1/3 of my buyers are coming from Texas and California.”

#Kalispell MT agent: “Entire state of Montana has been overwhelmed with out-of-state buyers paying cash for properties & pushing purchase prices. Rents are also being pushed to all-time highs. Affordable homes & rentals for our workforce are a major issue.”

#Claremont NH agent: “Beginning to see some buyer pricing resistance in the last couple of weeks & inventory is growing.”

#LakeKenosha IL agent: “Buyers are not going $50k over asking price like they were a month ago.”

#Lansing MI agent: “Starting to see buyers aren’t as quick to guarantee the difference in appraisal value vs. accepted offer price. If they do, they put a limit on the amount they’re willing to pay between appraised value & accepted price.” THE END

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 11:20:00 AM

From BofA:

3Q GDP growth is currently coming in at 4.5%, leaving annual growth to slip to 5.9% this year. We think the Delta variant is a large reason for the soft patch as can be seen by the pullback in spending on leisure services. But we also have to consider the possibility of more permanent supply-side constraints and greater precautionary savings. [August 20 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3. [August 18 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.5% for 2021:Q3. News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2021:Q3 by 0.3 percentage point. [August 20 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 6.1 percent on August 18, down from 6.2 percent on August 17. [August 18 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 10:19:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of August 17th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearances Edge Slightly Higher

After dropping by more than 150,000 over the past two weeks, we once again saw active forbearance plans edge up slightly in what has become a well-established mid-month trend.

The week’s 11,000 overall increase was driven entirely by a 12,000 rise in plans among Portfolio/PLS loans and offset by a 1,000 decline in GSE forbearances. FHA/VA plan volumes held flat from the week prior.

According to Black Knight’s McDash Flash forbearance tracker, 1.75 million (3.3% of) borrowers remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans as of August 17. That population includes 1.9% of GSE, 5.8% of FHA/VA and 4.0% of portfolio-held and privately securitized mortgages.

Plan volumes are now down 110,000 (-5.9%) from the same time last month, with the rate of improvement slowing slightly in recent weeks.

Total plan starts were higher this week, primarily from a rise in re-start activity. New plan starts, though up slightly from last week, remain below the 5-week moving average.

Click on graph for larger image.

Meanwhile, plan removals hit their lowest weekly total since late May, but mainly due to the fact that review activity was low in general this past week.

Of those plans reviewed since last Tuesday, 41% resulted in exits, up from the 36% removal rate the same time last month. Activity is poised to pick up significantly with the first wave of final forbearance expirations only weeks away.

Some 200,000 plans are currently slated for review through the final two weeks of August, with approximately one-third of those reaching their final expiration based on current allowable forbearance term lengths. Volumes of final expirations will increase significantly in September and October.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2021 08:26:00 AM

Note: At the beginning of the pandemic, the delinquency rate increased sharply (see table below).   Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus.

From Black Knight: Black Knight: Overall Mortgage Delinquencies Edge Closer to Pre-Pandemic Levels, But 1.45M Remain Seriously Past Due as Foreclosure Moratorium Expired at End of July

• The national delinquency rate saw a 5% reduction in July and at 4.14% is now down by nearly half since May of last year

• Delinquencies have now improved in 12 of the last 14 months, with the two monthly increases being calendar-related as opposed to being indicative of worsening performance

• While overall delinquency volumes continue to edge closer to pre-pandemic levels, the number of serious delinquencies were still significantly elevated as federal foreclosure moratoria expired at the end of July

• Some 1.45 million borrowers remained 90 or more days past due – but not yet in foreclosure – entering August, more than 1 million more than at the onset of the pandemic

• Foreclosure starts remained muted in July, the final month of the foreclosure moratorium on federally backed mortgages, down 58% from the same time last year

• While the number of loans in active foreclosure fell by 5,000 to yet another record low, potential foreclosure activity in the coming months warrants close observation

• After rising in June, prepayment activity slid by 11% in July; however, low 30-year rates in recent weeks have resulted in a modest resurgence in refinance incentive which may impact August prepay numbers
emphasis added

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 5.2% in July compared to June, and decreased 40% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 4.0% in July and were down 26% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.14% in July, down from 4.37% in June.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in July to 0.26%, from 0.27% in June.

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 1,486,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 50,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	July  2021	June 2021	July 2020	July 2019
Delinquent	4.14%	4.37%	6.91%	3.46%
In Foreclosure	0.26%	0.27%	0.36%	0.49%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	2,206,000	2,320,000	3,692,000	1,807,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	140,000	145,000	190,000	258,000
Total Properties	2,346,000	2,466,000	3,881,000	2,065,000