by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales.

For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week.

----- Monday, September 13th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, September 14th -----
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.

----- Wednesday, September 15th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 18.6, up from 18.3.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 76.4%.

----- Thursday, September 16th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 310 thousand initial claims last week.

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for August will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 20.0, up from 19.4.

----- Friday, September 17th -----
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for August 2021

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for September).

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2021 04:51:00 PM

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q2 2021 this week:

Net income totaled $70.4 billion, an increase of $51.9 billion (281 percent) from the same quarter a year ago, primarily due to a $73 billion (117.3 percent) decline in provision expense.
...
Total loan and lease balances increased $33.2 billion (0.3 percent) from the previous quarter. This was the first quarterly increase in loan volume since second quarter 2020. An increase in credit card loan balances (up $30.9 billion, or 4.1 percent), supplemented by an increase in auto loan balances (up $18.9 billion, or 3.8 percent), drove the growth.

Loans that were 90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status (i.e., noncurrent loans) continued to decline (down $13.2 billion, or 10.8 percent) from first quarter 2021. The noncurrent rate for total loans declined 12 basis points from the previous quarter to 1.01 percent. Net charge-offs also continued to decline (down $8.3 billion, or 53.2 percent) from a year ago. The total net charge-off rate dropped 30 basis points to 0.27 percent—the lowest level on record.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The FDIC reported the number of problem banks declined by four from the first quarter to 51.

This graph from the FDIC shows the number of problem banks and assets at 51 institutions.

Note: The number of assets for problem banks increased significantly back in 2018 when Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas was added to the list (it must still be on the list given the assets of problem banks).

The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) declined from $1.73 billion in Q2 2020 to $0.85 billion in Q2 2021. This is the lowest level of REOs in many years.  (probably declined sharply due to foreclosure moratoriums and forbearance programs).

This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2021 03:59:00 PM

NOTE: There will be no weekend updates on COVID.

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 378,569,717, as of a week ago 373,516,809. Average doses last week: 0.72 million per day. 

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	53.6%	52.9%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	177.9	175.5	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	136,738	155,347	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	91,795	93,146	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,110	1,236	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 11 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 68.4%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland. New Jersey, Washington, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire at 60.4%.

The following 14 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Oregon at 58.9%, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, and South Dakota at 51.1%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Kentucky at 49.8%, Arizona at 49.5%, Kansas at 49.3%, Ohio at 49.1%, Nevada at 48.9%, Texas at 48.7%, Utah at 48.6% and Alaska at 48.2%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2021 02:19:00 PM

Starting this month, I'm going to post local market data (Sales, Active Inventory, New listings) several times during the month on the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

Here are 4 more of about 30 local markets that I track: 4 More Local Housing Markets in August

This includes Atlanta, New Hampshire, Portland, and Sacramento.

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2021 01:11:00 PM

GDP forecasts have been downgraded sharply for Q3 due to COVID.  

The surge in COVID cases has impacted some consumer spending, caused further supply chain disruptions, and possibly some downgrades due to policy (expiration of unemployment benefits during a COVID wave).

Here is a table of some downgrades over the last 40 days.

	Merrill	Goldman	GDPNow
7/30/21	7.0%	9.0%	6.1%
8/20/21	4.5%	5.5%	6.1%
9/10/21	4.5%	3.5%	3.7%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 4.5% qoq saar for 3Q GDP. [Sept 10 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We now expect GDP growth of 3.5% in Q3. [Sept 9 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.7 percent on September 10 [Sept 10 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2021 10:52:00 AM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.

The occupancy rate was unchanged compared to the same week in 2019 due to Labor Day demand and Hurricane Ida.

From CoStar: Labor Day Demand, Hurricane Ida Evacuations Reverse Five-Week US Hotel Occupancy Slide

Labor Day weekend leisure travel and Hurricane Ida-related demand lifted U.S. hotel occupancy out of a five-week slump.

After declining for the past five weeks, weekly U.S. hotel occupancy inched up 30 basis points for the week ending Sept. 4 to 61.3%, according to the latest data from CoStar hospitality analytics firm STR. Weekend occupancy, Friday and Saturday, increased to 77%, which was the country’s highest since the first week of August.

Compared with Labor Day weekend in 2019, which was a week earlier, occupancy was nearly the same, indicating the desire to travel remains strong despite the increase in COVID-19 cases, and occupancy declines over the past several weeks are more due to the return of in-person schools and the slow materialization of business and group travel.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Occupancy is above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid - but, according to STR, occupancy has been declining due to both seasonal factors and the "pandemic situation".

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

With solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - usually weekly occupancy increases up to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel.

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2021 08:45:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of September 7th.

From Black Knight: Forbearances Decrease

The number of active forbearance plans fell by 92K (-5.4%) this week, driven by lingering August expirations and new activity taking place in September.

Volumes fell significantly across all investor classes, with portfolio/PLS plans seeing the greatest decline at 40K (-7.7%). Plans were also down 26K among both FHA/VA and GSE loans, for -3.8% and -5.1% declines, respectively. Overall, plan volumes are now down 129K (-7.4%) from the same time last month and have fallen by 3.1M (-67%) from their peak in May 2020.

Additional activity is expected later in the month as well, with nearly 540K plans still scheduled for review for extension/removal in September. Of those, nearly 400K are set to reach their final plan expirations based on current allowable forbearance term lengths.

Click on graph for larger image.

Significant volume declines could still be seen in coming weeks as those plans reach their final expirations and exiting borrowers return to making mortgage payments in October.
emphasis added

Black Knight reports 1,618,000 loans in forbearance, or 3.1% of all mortgages.

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2021 06:19:00 PM

Mostly I'm going to post local market data (Sales, Active Inventory, New listings) weekly on the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

Please subscribe to the Newsletter!  

Here are the first 6 of about 30 local markets that I track: 6 Local Housing Markets in August. This includes Denver, Las Vegas, San Diego, North Texas (Dallas/Ft. Worth), Northwest (Seattle) and Santa Clara (San Jose).

For Portland, OR:

Closed sales in August 2021 were 3,219, up 2.2% from 3,149 in August 2020.

Active Residential Listings in August 2021 were 3,066, down 23.3% from 3,995 in August 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.0 Months in August 2021, compared to 1.3 Months in August 2020, and 2.3 months in August 2019.

Inventory in August was down 3.6% from last month, and up 59.5% from the record low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2021 04:59:00 PM

I'm tracking new cases, hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID, mostly to assess the impact on the economy.

Just over a month ago, many Americans, and economic analysts, assumed COVID was mostly behind us. Unfortunately they were wrong, and COVID has impacted the economic outlook once again.

For example, on July 30th, Goldman Sachs wrote: "we are launching our Q3 GDP tracking estimate at +9.0% (qoq ar)"

Then in mid-August, they downgraded their forecast: "We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production."

And this week, on September 6th, they downgraded their forecast again: “We now expect GDP growth of 3.5% in Q3." That is about one third of the real growth they expected just 5 weeks ago!

Other analysts have made similar downgrades for Q3. There are several reasons for the change: the surge in COVID cases has impacted some consumer spending, supply chain disruptions are ongoing (and COVID is impacting the supply chain recovery), and possibly some downgrades due to policy (expiration of unemployment benefits during a COVID wave).

Right now it is looking like new cases are peaking, but far above the 12,000 per day level we saw in June.   And it looks like we might see another Winter wave for several reasons:

1) There is a huge reservoir of virus (about 150,000 new cases have been reported per day).

2) Schools are reopening, and kids spread the virus easily.

3) Many Americans have moved past taking even the easiest mitigation efforts (like wearing masks indoors).

4) Only 53.4% of Americans are vaccinated, and the percent is increasing very slowly.

5) Thanksgiving is only 77 days from now (followed by Christmas and New Years).  Families will want to gather in person this year.  

A severe winter COVID wave could be a significant economic drag in Q4, and Q1 2022.  And the most vulnerable are losing their extended unemployment benefits, and could be facing eviction.  Hopefully there won't be another wave.  Best to all

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2021 03:34:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 377,622,065, as of a week ago 372,116,617. Average doses last week: 0.79 million per day. 

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	53.4%	52.7%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	177.4	175.0	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	136,558	156,340	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	92,646	92,696	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,076	1,214	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 11 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 68.4%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland. New Jersey, Washington, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire at 60.4%.

The following 13 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Oregon at 58.8%, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan at 51.0%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are South Dakota at 49.9%, Kentucky at 49.6%, Arizona at 49.4%, Kansas at 49.1%, Ohio at 49.0%, Nevada at 48.7%, Texas at 48.6%, Utah at 48.5% and Alaska at 48.1%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.