by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2021 08:36:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August:

Personal income increased $35.5 billion (0.2 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $18.9 billion (0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $130.5 billion (0.8 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.
emphasis added

The August PCE price index increased 4.3 percent year-over-year and the August PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.6 percent year-over-year.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was slightly below expectations,  and the increase in PCE was above expectations.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q3 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 0.3% annual rate in Q3 2021. (using the mid-month method, PCE was  increasing at 2.2%).  This follows a sharp increase in PCE in Q2.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 09:00:00 PM

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 59.5, down from 59.9 in August. 

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase.

• Late: Light vehicle sales for September. The consensus is for sales of 13.4 million SAAR, up from 13.1 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 07:12:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 392,909,995, as of a week ago 387,821,704, or 0.85 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	55.6%	55.0%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	184.6	182.6	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	106,394	122,659	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	73,437	82,827	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,476	1,527	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 13 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 69.5%, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, and District of Columbia at 60.1%.

The following 21 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Colorado at 59.4%, California, Minnesota, Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah and Ohio at 50.2%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are North Carolina 49.8%, Montana at 48.5%, and Indiana at 48.4% .

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 04:34:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 1.79% in August, from 1.94% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down from 3.32% in August 2020.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Click on graph for larger image

By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 4.47% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.82% in July). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 7.57% are seriously delinquent (down from 8.26%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 1.46% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.57%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.

Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.

This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble.   Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.

Freddie Mac reported earlier.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 03:29:00 PM

The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.

CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest.

As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest.

DISCLAIMER: This is an unofficial list, the information is from public sources only, and while deemed to be reliable is not guaranteed. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein and same is subject to errors and omissions. This is not intended as investment advice. Please contact CR with any errors.

Here are the quarterly changes and a few comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List through September 27, 2021. Since the last update at the end of June 2021, the list decreased by six to 59 institutions after two additions and eight removals. Assets increased by $3.1 billion to $54.9 billion, with the change entirely from nearly a $5.0 billion increase from updated asset figures through June 30, 2021. A year ago, the list held 64 institutions with assets of $52.4 billion. Additions this month included The Anna-Jonesboro National Bank, Anna, IL ($268 million) and First Savanna Savings Bank, Savanna, IL ($11 million). Removals because of action termination included Patriot Bank, National Association, Stamford, CT ($963 million); CFSBank, Charleroi, PA ($545 million); Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, Chicago, IL ($245 million); South LaFourche Bank & Trust Company, Larose, LA ($145 million); AllNations Bank, Calumet, OK ($48 million); and Sainte Marie State Bank, Sainte Marie, IL ($16 million). Removals through unassisted merger included Jackson County Bank, Black River Falls, WI ($205 million) and Towanda State Bank, Towanda, KS ($11 million). On September 8, 2021, the FDIC released second quarter results and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List. In that release, the FDIC said there were 51 institutions with assets of $46 billion on the official list, down from the 54 institutions with assets of $55 billion in the first quarter of 2021.

With the conclusion of the second quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,779 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 3.3 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,720 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,014 action terminations, 411 failures, 276 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent 23.1 percent of the 1,779 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 02:10:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: August 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

With the Delta variant of the COVID virus spiking during the month, August visitation receded from the pandemic‐era peak in July, coming in at just under 3.0M visitors, down ‐ 9.2% MoM and down ‐16.2% from August 2019.

Hotel occupancy reached 72.8% for the month (down 6.6 pts MoM, down ‐14.9 pts vs. August 2019), as Weekend occupancy remained fairly strong at 87.1% (down ‐1.0 pts MoM) while Midweek occupancy dipped to 67.8% (down ‐6.8 pts MoM).

Although down from July, August ADR was the second highest in the pandemic era, exceeding $140, down ‐7.8% MoM but up 16.0% vs. August 2019. RevPAR came in at $102, ‐15.4% MoM and down ‐3.7% vs. August 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Thist graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 16.2% compared to the same month in 2019.

There had been no convention traffic since March 2020, but there have been a few conventions since June 2021 (data not available yet).

I'll add a graph of convention traffic once convention data is available.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 10:47:00 AM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic, so CoStar is comparing to 2019.

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Stays Flat Week Over Week

U.S. hotel occupancy remained relatively flat week over week, while average daily rate rose, according to STR‘s latest data through September 25.

September 19-25, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 63.2% (-11.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $133.69 (-2.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $84.54 (-12.8%)

A week after eclipsing 1 million for the first time since the earliest days of the pandemic, group demand rose again to almost 1.3 million for the week. At the same time, group ADR moved past $200 for the first time since February 2020.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019.

But it is uncertain what will happen over the next couple of months with business travel.  Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 08:45:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 362,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 340,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 335,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 340,000.

The previous week was unrevised.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,802,000 (SA) from 2,820,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note (released with a 2 week delay): There were an additional 1,059,248 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 4,896,125 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This was a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And threre were an additional 991,813 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 3,644,555.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 08:34:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), 2nd Quarter 2021

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.7 percent in the second quarter of 2021, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent.

The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.6 percent. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and private inventory investment were partly offset by an upward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP
emphasis added

Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 11.9% to 12.0%. Residential investment was revised down from -11.5% to -11.7%. This was at the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2021 09:04:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 335 thousand initial claims, down from 351 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2021 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 6.7% annualized in Q2, revised up from the second estimate of 6.6%.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 65.0, down from 66.8 in August.