by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2021 04:12:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 393,756,866, as of a week ago 388,567,109, or 0.74 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	55.7%	55.1%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	184.9	183.0	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	104,649	118,371	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	71,944	81,647	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,489	1,523	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 13 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 69.5%, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, and District of Columbia at 60.2%.

The following 21 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Colorado at 59.4%, California, Minnesota, Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah and Ohio at 50.3%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are North Carolina 49.9%, Montana at 48.5%, Indiana at 48.4% and Missouri at 48.0% .

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2021 02:16:00 PM

Today, in the Newsletter: As Forbearance Ends

Excerpt:

An analysis from CoreLogic today suggests “Nearly three-in-four loans in forbearance are expected to reach the 18-month maximum limit at the end of September.”
...
In Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Huge Wave of Foreclosures, I presented some data from Black Knight and argued “that most homeowners in forbearance have sufficient equity in their homes, and there will not be a huge wave of foreclosures like following the housing bubble.” But there will be some increase in foreclosure activity. I’ll track the data over the next few months, but this isn’t a huge concern.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2021 12:42:00 PM

Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last two months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts initially underestimating the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.

	Merrill	Goldman	GDPNow
7/30/21	7.0%	9.0%	6.1%
8/20/21	4.5%	5.5%	6.1%
9/10/21	4.5%	3.5%	3.7%
9/17/21	4.5%	4.5%	3.6%
9/24/21	4.5%	4.5%	3.7%
10/1/21	4.1%	4.25%	2.3%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:

Following this week's data, 3Q GDP tracking dropped to 4.1% qoq saar from 4.5% previously. The August deterioration in the goods trade deficit was the main driver. [Oct 1 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

Following this morning’s data, we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4¼% (qoq ar). [Oct 1 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 2.3 percent on October 1, down from 3.2 percent on September 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively, to 1.4 percent and 12.9 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.36 percentage points to -1.27 percentage points. [Oct 1 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2021 10:21:00 AM

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending was "virtually unchanged":

Construction spending during August 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,584.1 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised July estimate of $1,584.0 billion. The August figure is 8.9 percent above the August 2020 estimate of $1,455.0 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,034.5 billion, 7.0 percent above the $966.7 billion for the same period in 2020.
emphasis added

Private spending decreased and public spending increased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,242.2 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised July estimate of $1,243.7 billion. ...

In August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $341.9 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised July estimate of $340.3 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential spending is 16% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation).

Non-residential spending is 10% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently.

Public construction spending is 9% above the peak in March 2009, but weak recently.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 24.3%. Non-residential spending is down 2.3% year-over-year. Public spending is unchanged year-over-year.

Construction was considered an essential service during the early months of the pandemic in most areas, and did not decline sharply like many other sectors.  However, some sectors of non-residential have been under pressure. For example, lodging is down 30.7% YoY, multi-retail down 2.0% YoY (from very low levels), and office down 4.2% YoY.

This was below consensus expectations of a 0.3% increase in spending, however construction spending for the previous two months was revised up slightly.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2021 10:05:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in September. The PMI® was at 61.1% in September, up from 59.9% in August. The employment index was at 50.2%, up from 49.0% last month, and the new orders index was at 66.7%, unchanged from 66.7%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 61.1% September 2021 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September, with the overall economy notching a 16th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

"The September Manufacturing PMI® registered 61.1 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the August reading of 59.9 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 16th month in a row after contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 66.7 percent, unchanged from the August reading. The Production Index registered 59.4 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point compared to the August reading of 60 percent. The Prices Index registered 81.2 percent, up 1.8 percentage points compared to the August figure of 79.4 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 64.8 percent, 3.4 percentage points lower than the August reading of 68.2 percent. The Employment Index returned to growth with a reading at 50.2 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher compared to the August reading of 49 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 73.4 percent, up 3.9 percentage points from the August figure of 69.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 55.6 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the August reading of 54.2 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 53.4 percent, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points compared to the August reading of 56.6 percent. The Imports Index registered 54.9 percent, an 0.6-percentage point increase from the August reading of 54.3 percent.”
emphasis added

This was above expectations, and this suggests manufacturing expanded at a slightly faster pace in September than in August.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2021 08:36:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August:

Personal income increased $35.5 billion (0.2 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $18.9 billion (0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $130.5 billion (0.8 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.
emphasis added

The August PCE price index increased 4.3 percent year-over-year and the August PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.6 percent year-over-year.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was slightly below expectations,  and the increase in PCE was above expectations.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q3 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 0.3% annual rate in Q3 2021. (using the mid-month method, PCE was  increasing at 2.2%).  This follows a sharp increase in PCE in Q2.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 09:00:00 PM

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 59.5, down from 59.9 in August. 

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase.

• Late: Light vehicle sales for September. The consensus is for sales of 13.4 million SAAR, up from 13.1 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 07:12:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 392,909,995, as of a week ago 387,821,704, or 0.85 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	55.6%	55.0%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	184.6	182.6	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	106,394	122,659	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	73,437	82,827	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,476	1,527	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 13 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 69.5%, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, and District of Columbia at 60.1%.

The following 21 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Colorado at 59.4%, California, Minnesota, Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah and Ohio at 50.2%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are North Carolina 49.8%, Montana at 48.5%, and Indiana at 48.4% .

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 04:34:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 1.79% in August, from 1.94% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down from 3.32% in August 2020.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Click on graph for larger image

By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 4.47% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.82% in July). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 7.57% are seriously delinquent (down from 8.26%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 1.46% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.57%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.

Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.

This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble.   Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.

Freddie Mac reported earlier.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 03:29:00 PM

The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.

CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest.

As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest.

DISCLAIMER: This is an unofficial list, the information is from public sources only, and while deemed to be reliable is not guaranteed. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein and same is subject to errors and omissions. This is not intended as investment advice. Please contact CR with any errors.

Here are the quarterly changes and a few comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List through September 27, 2021. Since the last update at the end of June 2021, the list decreased by six to 59 institutions after two additions and eight removals. Assets increased by $3.1 billion to $54.9 billion, with the change entirely from nearly a $5.0 billion increase from updated asset figures through June 30, 2021. A year ago, the list held 64 institutions with assets of $52.4 billion. Additions this month included The Anna-Jonesboro National Bank, Anna, IL ($268 million) and First Savanna Savings Bank, Savanna, IL ($11 million). Removals because of action termination included Patriot Bank, National Association, Stamford, CT ($963 million); CFSBank, Charleroi, PA ($545 million); Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, Chicago, IL ($245 million); South LaFourche Bank & Trust Company, Larose, LA ($145 million); AllNations Bank, Calumet, OK ($48 million); and Sainte Marie State Bank, Sainte Marie, IL ($16 million). Removals through unassisted merger included Jackson County Bank, Black River Falls, WI ($205 million) and Towanda State Bank, Towanda, KS ($11 million). On September 8, 2021, the FDIC released second quarter results and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List. In that release, the FDIC said there were 51 institutions with assets of $46 billion on the official list, down from the 54 institutions with assets of $55 billion in the first quarter of 2021.

With the conclusion of the second quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,779 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 3.3 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,720 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,014 action terminations, 411 failures, 276 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent 23.1 percent of the 1,779 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list.