by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2021 10:14:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of October 26th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearance Plan Exits Steady Ahead of Month-End Deadlines

The number of mortgage holders exiting forbearance held steady this week and is expected to accelerate over the next few days with month-end deadlines looming.

According to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, the number of active forbearance plans fell 19,000 (-1.5%), with declines of 7,900 among GSE loans, 7,700 among FHA/VA mortgages and 3,300 among portfolio-held and privately securitized (PLS) mortgages. That’s modestly better than last week’s 7,300 (-0.6%) decrease.

As of October 26, 1.22 million mortgage holders remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans. That’s 2.3% of all active mortgages, including 1.3% of GSE, 3.8% of FHA/VA and 3% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans.

Click on graph for larger image.

More than 470,000 homeowners left forbearance in the first 26 days of October, making it the largest month for exit activity in more than a year. And with more than 225,000 plans still up for review before the end of the month, including 140,000 facing final expiration, that number is likely to increase significantly in coming weeks.

Forbearance plan starts edged slightly higher this week but are still down 28% from the same time last month.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2021 08:35:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September:

Personal income decreased $216.2 billion (1.0 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $236.9 billion (1.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $93.4 billion (0.6 percent).

Real DPI decreased 1.6 percent in September and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent; goods increased 0.1 percent and services increased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.
emphasis added

The September PCE price index increased 4.4 percent year-over-year and the September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.6 percent year-over-year.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was below expectations,  and the increase in PCE was at expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2021 09:00:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 64.0, down from 64.7 in September.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for October). The consensus is for a reading of 71.6.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2021 04:29:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: September 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

With stronger weekends but declines midweek vs. August 2021, September visitation saw some stabilization at approximately 2.9M visitors (down ‐2.1% MoM and down ‐15.5% from September 2019) after seeing sharper declines in August as the COVID Delta variant surged.

Hotel occupancy reached 73.0% for the month (up 0.2 pts MoM, down ‐15.3 pts vs. September 2019), as Weekend occupancy improved month‐over‐month to 89.1% (up 2.0 pts MoM) while Midweek occupancy declined from the prior month to 66.1% (down ‐1.7 pts MoM).

September room rates exceeded $155, the highest in the pandemic era, up 11.0% MoM and up 13.6% vs. September 2019 as RevPAR came in at $113.73, up 11.3% MoM and down ‐6.1% vs. September 2019

Click on graph for larger image.

Thist graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 15.5% compared to the same month in 2019.

There had been no convention traffic since March 2020, but there have been a few conventions since June 2021 (data not available yet).

I'll add a graph of convention traffic once convention data is available.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2021 04:07:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 417,795,537, as of a week ago 411,010,650, or 0.97 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	57.6%	57.2%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	191.2	189.9	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	68,792	74,290	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	45,513	51,175	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,129	1,246	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  Note: COVID will probably stay endemic (at least for some time).

KUDOS to the residents of the 4 states that have achieved 70% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 71.0%, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Maine at 70.4% .

KUDOS also to the residents of the 12 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Massachusetts at 69.5%, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, District of Columbia,  Colorado, California and Pennsylvania at 60.3%.

The following 20 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Delaware at 59.7%, Minnesota, Hawaii, Florida, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah, North Carolina, Ohio and Montana at 50.3%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Oklahoma at 49.8%, South Carolina at 49.8%, Indiana at 49.7%, Missouri at 49.6%, Georgia at 48.0%, and Arkansas at 47.8%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2021 12:58:00 PM

Note: Since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic, CoStar is comparing to 2019.

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Drops, but Rates Increase Slightly

U.S. hotel occupancy dipped a percentage point week over week, while room rates rose slightly, according to STR‘s latest data through October 23.

October 17-23, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 63.9% (-9.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $134.14 (-0.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $85.74 (-9.6%)

*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019.

Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel.   However, this year, so far, business travel has been lighter than leisure travel in 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2021 11:44:00 AM

Earlier from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent.
emphasis added

On a Q3-over-Q3 basis, GDP was up 4.9%.

The advance Q2 GDP report, at 2.0% annualized, was below expectations, due to several factors - a sharp decline in Motor vehicles and parts (due to supply constraints), a decline in residential investment, a decline in government expenditures and a negative contribution from trade.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q3, a much slower pace than the previous two quarters.

The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.

Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern doesn't apply.

The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.

Click on graph for larger image.

Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 7.7% annual rate in Q3.  Equipment investment decreased at a 3.2% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 7.3% annual rate (after getting crushed over the previous year)..

The contribution to Q3 GDP from investment in private inventories was 2.07 percentage points.

On a 3 quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is down slightly, equipment (green) is up, and nonresidential structures (blue) is still down.

I'll post more on the components of non-residential investment once the supplemental data is released.

The second graph shows residential investment as a percent of GDP.

Residential Investment as a percent of GDP decreased in Q3.

I'll break down Residential Investment into components after the GDP details are released.

Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories.

The third graph shows non-residential investment in structures, equipment and "intellectual property products".  

Investment in non-residential structures declined in Q3 as a percent GDP, but might pickup in early 2022.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2021 10:03:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dip 2.3% in September

Pending home sales dipped in September, retreating slightly following a previous month of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw contract activity decline month-over-month and year-over-year, with the Northeast weathering the largest yearly drop.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, decreased 2.3% to 116.7 in September. Year-over-year, signings decreased 8.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
...
Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI fell 3.2% to 93.1 in September, an 18.5% decline from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index dropped 3.5% to 111.4 last month, down 5.8% from September 2020.

Pending home sales transactions in the South decreased 1.8% to an index of 139.1 in September, down 5.8% from September 2020. The index in the West declined 1.4% in September to 105.3, down 7.2% from a year prior.
emphasis added

This was below expectations of a 0.5% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2021 08:37:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 290,000 to 291,000. The 4-week moving average was 299,250, a decrease of 20,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 319,750 to 320,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 299,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,243,000 (SA) from 2,480,000 (SA) the previous week.

Weekly claims were below consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2021 08:33:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent. ...

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
emphasis added

The advance Q3 GDP report, with 2.0% annualized growth, was below expectations.

I'll have more later ...