RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2021 08:17:00 AM
Monday, November 01, 2021
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
This data is as of October 31st.
Click on graph for larger image.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).
The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average.
The 7-day average is down 17.8% from the same day in 2019 (82.2% of 2019). (Dashed line)
The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.
IMPORTANT: OpenTable notes: "we’ve updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year." Thanks!
Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:
This data is updated through October 30, 2021.
This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."
Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.
Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend, but declined after the holiday - but might be picking up a little again. The 7-day average for the US is down 4% compared to 2019.
Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:This data is updated through October 30, 2021.
This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."
Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.
Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend, but declined after the holiday - but might be picking up a little again. The 7-day average for the US is down 4% compared to 2019.
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021.
The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 28th.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $112 million last week, down about 25% from the median for the week.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $112 million last week, down about 25% from the median for the week.
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).
This data is through October 23rd. The occupancy rate was down 9.1% compared to the same week in 2019.
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019. Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel. However, this year, so far, business travel has been lighter than leisure travel in 2021.
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.Blue is for 2020. Red is for 2021.
As of October 22nd, gasoline supplied was down 4.7% compared to the same week in 2019.
There have been seven weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - and consumption is running close to 2019 levels now.
This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.
There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.
This data is through October 28th for the United States and several selected cities.
The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.
IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.
According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 114% of the January 2020 level.
The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.
IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.
According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 114% of the January 2020 level.
New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph).
----- New York City Subway Usage -----
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider.
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).
This data is through Friday, October 29th.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
This data is through Friday, October 29th.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
Sunday, October 31, 2021
Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2021 07:25:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 31, 2021
• FOMC Preview: Taper Announcement Expected
• 2022 Housing Forecasts: First Look Optimism on New Home Sales in 2022
Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for 60.5%, down from 61.1%.
• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 6 and DOW futures are up 59 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $82.84 per barrel and Brent at $83.05 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $36, and Brent was at $36 - so WTI oil prices are up more than double year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.38 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.10 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.28 per gallon year-over-year.
2022 Housing Forecasts: First Look
by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2021 05:05:00 PM
Today, in the Newsletter: 2022 Housing Forecasts: First Look
Excerpt (there is much more):
The key in 2022 will be inventory. If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in prices. However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation.
Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.
FOMC Preview: Taper Announcement Expected
by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2021 08:11:00 AM
Expectations are the FOMC will announce the tapering of assets purchases at the meeting this week.
From Goldman Sachs:
"The FOMC will announce the start of tapering next week, presumably at the $15bn per month pace noted in the September minutes. If implementation begins in mid-November, the last taper would come in June 2022. Large surprises on the virus, inflation, wage growth, or inflation expectations could prompt a revision, but we think the hurdle for a change in either direction is high."Analysts will also be looking for comments on inflation and possible rate hikes in 2022. Goldman Sachs now expects two rates hikes next year:
"We are pulling forward our forecast for the Fed’s first rate hike by one full year to July 2022, shortly after tapering is scheduled to conclude. We expect a second hike in November 2022 and two hikes per year after that."
A key question will be if the "full employment" is still a criteria for the first rate hike.
Early Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase at a 5% to 6% annual rate in Q4 that would put Q4-over-Q4 at around 5.0% to 5.2% - so the FOMC projections for 2021 are now a little on the high side compared to Wall Street.
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Sept 2021 | 5.8 to 6.0 | 3.4 to 4.5 | 2.2 to 2.5 | 2.0 to 2.2 |
| June 2021 | 6.8 to 7.3 | 2.8 to 3.8 | 2.0 to 2.5 | |
Note that the unemployment rate doesn't remotely capture the economic damage to the labor market. Not only are there 2 million more people currently unemployed than prior to the pandemic, over 3 million people have left the labor force since February 2020.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The decline in the unemployment rate depends on both job growth, and the participation rate. A strong labor market will probably encourage people to return to the labor force, and the improvements in the unemployment rate might be slower than some expect.
As of September 2021, PCE inflation was up 4.4% from September 2020. This is just above the top end of the projected range for Q4.
PCE core inflation was up 3.6% in September year-over-year.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Sept 2021 | 4.6 to 4.8 | 3.6 to 4.0 | 3.3 to 3.7 | 3.3 to 3.6 |
| June 2021 | 4.4 to 4.8 | 3.5 to 4.0 | 3.2 to 3.8 | |
The decline in the unemployment rate depends on both job growth, and the participation rate. A strong labor market will probably encourage people to return to the labor force, and the improvements in the unemployment rate might be slower than some expect.
As of September 2021, PCE inflation was up 4.4% from September 2020. This is just above the top end of the projected range for Q4.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Sept 2021 | 4.0 to 4.3 | 2.0 to 2.5 | 2.0 to 2.3 | 2.0 to 2.2 |
| June 2021 | 3.1 to 3.5 | 1.9 to 2.3 | 2.0 to 2.2 | |
PCE core inflation was up 3.6% in September year-over-year.
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Sept 2021 | 3.6 to 3.8 | 2.0 to 2.5 | 2.0 to 2.3 | 2.0 to 2.2 |
| June 2021 | 2.9 to 3.1 | 1.9 to 2.3 | 2.0 to 2.2 | |
Saturday, October 30, 2021
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week
by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2021 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
• Final Look: Local Housing Markets in September
• New Home Sales: Record 106 thousand homes have not been started
• Case-Shiller National Index up Record 19.8% Year-over-year in August The Deceleration is coming
• Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in August And a look at "Affordability"
• Mortgage Rates Slowly Increasing The Fed is Expected to "Taper" Asset Purchases Starting Next Week
This will usually be published several times a week, and will provide more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
The blog will continue as always!
You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ Currently all content is available for free - and some will always be free - but please subscribe!.
You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ Currently all content is available for free - and some will always be free - but please subscribe!.
Schedule for Week of October 31, 2021
by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2021 08:11:00 AM
Boo!
The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, October vehicle sales, and the September trade deficit.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, and they are expected to announce tapering of asset purchases.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for 60.5%, down from 61.1%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.
8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for September.
10:00 AM: The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.
All day: Light vehicle sales for October.The consensus is for sales of 12.4 million SAAR, up from 12.2 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 400,000 jobs added, down from 568,000 in September.
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October. The consensus is for a decrease to 59.5 from 61.9.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce tapering of asset purchases at this meeting.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 275 thousand initial claims, down from 281 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the deficit to be $74.1 billion in September, from $73.3 billion in August.This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October. The consensus is for 450 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.7%.There were 194 thousand jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 4.8%.
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.
The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".
Friday, October 29, 2021
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in September
by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2021 04:10:00 PM
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 1.62% in September, from 1.79% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 3.20% in September 2020.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.
Click on graph for larger image
By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 4.25% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.47% in August). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 7.21% are seriously delinquent (down from 7.57%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 1.31% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.46%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.
Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.
This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.
Freddie Mac reported earlier.
October 29th COVID-19: Still Close to 70,000 Cases per Day
by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2021 03:34:00 PM
The CDC is the source for all data.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 419,020,753, as of a week ago 411,963,025, or 1.01 million doses per day.
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | Week Ago | Goal | ||
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 57.8% | 57.3% | ≥70.0%1 | |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 192.0 | 190.2 | ≥2321 | |
| New Cases per Day3 | 68,177 | 73,020 | ≤5,0002 | |
| Hospitalized3 | 44,829 | 50,335 | ≤3,0002 | |
| Deaths per Day3 | 1,086 | 1,232 | ≤502 | |
| 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. | ||||
IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID). Note: COVID will probably stay endemic (at least for some time).
KUDOS to the residents of the 4 states that have achieved 70% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 71.1%, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Maine at 70.5% .
KUDOS also to the residents of the 13 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Massachusetts at 69.6%, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, District of Columbia, Colorado, California, Pennsylvania, and Illinois at 60.2%.
The following 20 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Minnesota at 59.8%, Delaware, Hawaii, Florida, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah, North Carolina, Ohio and Montana at 50.4%.
Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Oklahoma at 49.9%, South Carolina at 49.9%, Indiana at 49.8%, Missouri at 49.7%, Georgia at 48.0%, and Arkansas at 47.9%.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.
Early Q4 GDP Forecasts: Around 5% to 6%
by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2021 02:51:00 PM
Here we go again. The course of the economy is still dependent on the course of the pandemic.
We are taking the glass-half-full approach and holding to our forecast for 6% real GDP growth in 4Q with a gradual slowing through the course of 2022. However, we acknowledge the risks to the downside particularly from higher inflation and weaker consumer sentiment, chiefly the expectations measures. [October 29 estimate]From Goldman Sachs
emphasis added
We launched our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at +4.5% (qoq ar). [October 29 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 6.6 percent on October 29. [October 29 estimate]
Real Personal Income: Transfer Payments
by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2021 12:16:00 PM
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, September 2021 report this morning. The report showed that government transfer payments were still almost $695 billion (on SAAR basis) above the February 2020 level (pre-pandemic) Note: Seasonal adjustment doesn't make sense with one time payments, but that is how the data is presented.
This table shows the amount of unemployment insurance and "Other" transfer payments since January 2020 (pre-crisis level). The increase in "Other" was mostly due to parts of the relief acts including direct payments.
Note: Not in the table below, but Social Security and Medicare payments haven't increased significantly from the pre-recession levels. Social Security increased from $1,065 billion SAAR in Jan 2020 to $1,119 billion SAAR in September 2021. Medicare increased from $807 billion to $832 billion. Medicaid increased significantly from $603 billion to $739 billion.
But most of the increase in transfer payments - compared to the levels prior to the crisis - is from "other" (includes direct payments) as unemployment insurance has declined sharply.
| Selected Transfer Payments Billions of dollars, SAAR | ||
|---|---|---|
| Other | Unemployment Insurance | |
| Jan-20 | $511 | $26 |
| Feb-20 | $506 | $26 |
| Mar-20 | $516 | $67 |
| Apr-20 | $3,393 | $435 |
| May-20 | $1,373 | $1,287 |
| Jun-20 | $743 | $1,396 |
| Jul-20 | $750 | $1,366 |
| Aug-20 | $697 | $612 |
| Sep-20 | $950 | $325 |
| Oct-20 | $714 | $296 |
| Nov-20 | $580 | $285 |
| Dec-20 | $604 | $319 |
| Jan-21 | $2,317 | $574 |
| Feb-21 | $735 | $558 |
| Mar-21 | $4,706 | $566 |
| Apr-21 | $1,345 | $516 |
| May-21 | $806 | $492 |
| Jun-21 | $744 | $433 |
| Jul-21 | $921 | $368 |
| Aug-21 | $944 | $352 |
| Sep-21 | $894 | $98 |
