by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2021 06:13:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 7, 2021

Monday:
• At 12:00 PM ET, Speech, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, The U.S. Housing Market, At the Women in Housing and Finance Public Policy Luncheon, Washington, D.C.

• At 2:00 PM, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $81.27 per barrel and Brent at $82.74 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $37, and Brent was at $38 - so WTI oil prices are up more than double year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.40 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.09 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.31 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2021 01:49:00 PM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: A Zillow Flip that Flopped

Excerpt:

Here is an example flop from Zillow.

This home is at 271 Capella Ave in La Habra California. It is list by Active Realty (that seems to be associated with Zillow). This is a single story home in a decent area (California prices are always crazy compared to most of the US).
...
So my guess is Zillow lost north of $10,000 on this one flop.

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UPDATE: I left out the fee Zillow charges when they purchase the house, so their loss as not as bad as I initially thought (although I left out some expenses too).

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2021 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October "Extreme bidding wars are less common"

• The Market Impact of the Closure of Zillow Offers

• The Rapid Increase in Rents Continues

• 2022 Housing Forecasts: First Look Optimism on New Home Sales in 2022

This will usually be published several times a week, and will provide more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The blog will continue as always!

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by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key economic report this week is October CPI.

----- Monday, November 8th -----
12:00 PM: Speech, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, The U.S. Housing Market, At the Women in Housing and Finance Public Policy Luncheon, Washington, D.C.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for October.

----- Tuesday, November 9th -----
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in PPI, and a 0.5% increase in core PPI.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Wednesday, November 10th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in CPI, and a 0.4% increase in core CPI.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 260 thousand initial claims, down from 269 thousand last week.

----- Thursday, November 11th -----
Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will be open.

----- Friday, November 12th -----
10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in August to 10.439 million from 11.098 million in July.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2021 04:10:00 PM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of November 2nd.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: October Forbearance Exits Pick Up Pace in Final Week of Month

Improvement in the number of active COVID-19 forbearance plans continued this week as early entrants bumped against final expirations.

According to our McDash Flash daily mortgage performance dataset, the number of loans in active forbearance fell 85,000 (-6.9%). The week’s strongest declines were seen in FHA/VA plans, which marked a 42,000 (-9%) plan reduction. Strong improvement was also observed among GSE plans, which declined by 22,000 (-6%), as well as those held in bank portfolios or private label securities, (-21,000, -5.3%).

As of Nov. 2, 1.14 million mortgage holders remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, representing 2.1% of all active mortgages, including 1.2% of GSE, 3.5% FHA/VA and 2.8% of portfolio/PLS loans.

Click on graph for larger image.

Active plans are now down 332,000 (-23%) from the same time last month, as the first wave of forbearance entrants continue to reach their final expirations. Further improvement is likely next week as well, given the 129,000 reviews still scheduled for October, 75% of which are expected to be final expirations.

Finally, forbearance plan starts decreased 8% this week, with plan restart activity falling to its lowest level since early October.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2021 04:03:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 426,728,092, as of a week ago 419,020,753, or 1.10 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	58.2%	57.8%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	193.2	192.0	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	71,241	69,805	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	41,162	45,274	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,102	1,211	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  Note: COVID will probably stay endemic (at least for some time).

KUDOS to the residents of the 4 states that have achieved 70% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 71.5%, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Maine at 70.9% .

KUDOS also to the residents of the 16 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Massachusetts at 69.9%, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, District of Columbia,  Colorado, California, Pennsylvania,  Illinois, Delaware, Minnesota and Hawaii at 60.0%.

The following 20 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Florida at 59.9%, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah, North Carolina, Ohio, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Indiana at 50.0%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Missouri at 49.9%, Georgia at 48.5%, Arkansas at 48.2%, and Tennessee at 47.9%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2021 03:21:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

U.S. rail volumes continue to be impacted by supply chain issues and an economy that isn’t yet what it could be.

Total U.S. carloads rose 3.8% in October 2021 over October 2020 as year-over-year gains in coal, chemicals, and crushed stone and sand, among others, exceeded declines in motor vehicles, grain, and petroleum products. October was the eighth straight month in which total carloads were higher than the same month in 2020, but the 3.8% gain in October was the lowest gain in those eight months. ...

Supply chain problems (especially shortages of dray trucks, drivers, and warehouse space) kept U.S. intermodal volume down in October — it fell 7.9% from October 2020, its third straight year-over-year decline.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2019, 2020 and 2021:

Total U.S. carload traffic has risen slightly but perceptibly over the past two months. At the end of October, the 6-week moving average for total carloads originated was 237,999. That’s the most since mid-June. ... Total carloads in October 2021 were down 3.1% from October 2019. In each month so far in 2021, total carloads in 2021 have been below the comparable month in 2019.

The second graph shows the six week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2019, 2020 and 2021: (using intermodal or shipping containers):

[I]ntermodal volumes continue to be driven down by supply chain problems — especially shortages of dray trucks, drivers, and warehouse space — that are preventing rail customers from clearing their freight from rail terminals as quickly as they and railroads would like. Intermodal in October 2021 was down 7.9% from October 2020, its third straight year-over-year decline. October 202o was at the time the best intermodal month ever.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2021 11:45:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

Excerpt:

This is the first look at local markets in October. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

My view is that if the housing market is slowing, it will show up in inventory (not yet!).
...
Inventory almost always declines seasonally in October, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these three markets were down 24% YoY, so the YoY decline in October is larger than in September. This isn’t indicating a slowing market (but this is just 3 early reporting markets).

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Currently all content is available for free, but please subscribe).

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2021 09:37:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up significantly.   The participation rate was unchanged, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.6%.  Overall this was a strong report.

Leisure and hospitality gained 164 thousand jobs in October.  In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 1.4 million jobs since February 2020.  So leisure and hospitality has now added back about 83% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020.

Construction employment increased 44 thousand, and manufacturing added 60 thousand jobs.

State and Local education lost 65 thousand jobs, seasonally adjusted.  This accounted for most of the 73 thousand public sector jobs lost in October.

Earlier: October Employment Report: 531 Thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate

In October, the year-over-year employment change was 5.8 million jobs.

Permanent Job Losers

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the report today. (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg).

This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions.

In October, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 2.126 million from 2.251 million in September.

These jobs will likely be the hardest to recover, so it is a positive that the number of permanent job losers is declining fairly rapidly.

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The prime working age will be key as the economy recovers.

The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in October to 81.7% from 81.6% in September, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 78.3% from 78.0% in September.

Both are still low and indicate that many prime workers have still not returned to the labor force.

Seasonal Retail Hiring

Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.

Retailers hired 219 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in October.

This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a gain of 35 thousand jobs in October.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, was little changed in October. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full- time jobs. This measure has essentially returned to its February 2020 level."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons was essentially unchanged in October at 4.423 million from 4.468 million in September. This is back to pre-recession levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 8.3% from 8.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994. This measure was at 7.0% in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 2.326 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 2.683 million the previous month.

This does not include all the people that left the labor force. 

Summary:

The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations, and the previous two months were revised up by 235,000 combined.  And the headline unemployment rate decreased to 4.6%.  Overall this was a strong report.

However, the prime age participation rate and employment-population ratio, are well below pre-pandemic levels, indicating a large number of prime workers are still out of the labor force.   And there are still 4.2 million fewer jobs than prior to the recession.   

This report (and the previous reports) show the impact of the pandemic.  When COVID cases are rising sharply, the economy slows, and when COVID cases are falling, the economy picks up.  There are other factors, but as the FOMC noted this week: "The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus."

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2021 08:42:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 531,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, with notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up by 117,000, from +366,000 to +483,000, and the change for September was revised up by 118,000, from +194,000 to +312,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 235,000 higher than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October, the year-over-year change was 5.8 million jobs.  This was up significantly year-over-year.

Total payrolls increased by 531 thousand in October.  Private payrolls increased by 604 thousand, and public payrolls declined 73 thousand.

Payrolls for August and September were revised up 235 thousand, combined.

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.6% in October, from 61.6% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.8% from 58.7% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in October to 4.6% from 4.8% in September.

This was above consensus expectations, and August and September were revised up by 235,000 combined.  A strong report.

I'll have more later ...