by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2021 03:19:00 PM

A few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.
3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now closer to normal (second graph below).
4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index.

For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 (currently Chief Economist at Indeed) "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data"

Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too (from April 2010).  I still use the seasonal factor (I think it is better than using the NSA data).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through October 2021). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bubble, however the recent price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust.   

The swings in the seasonal factors have decreased, and the seasonal factors has been moving back towards more normal levels.

Note that the recent price surge hasn't distorted the seasonal factors.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2021 10:39:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October

Excerpt:

Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for October were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in Case-Shiller was at 1.03%; still historically high, but lower than the previous 14 months. House prices started increasing sharply in the Case-Shiller index in August 2020, so the last 15 months have all been historically very strong, but the peak MoM growth is behind us - and the year-over-price growth is starting to decelerate.
...

We are seeing the expected deceleration in house price growth, and this trend will probably continue for at least a few more months (more on this tomorrow). My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.99% in August was probably the peak YoY growth rate, however, since the normal level of inventory is probably in the 4 to 6 months range - we’d have to see a significant increase in inventory to sharply slow price increases, and that is why I’m focused on inventory!
emphasis added

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by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2021 09:11:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 19.1% Annual Home Price Gain in October

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.1% annual gain in October, down from 19.7% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 17.1%, down from 17.9% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.4% year-over-year gain, down from 19.1% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in October. Phoenix led the way with a 32.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 28.1% increase and Miami with a 25.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending October 2021 versus the year ending September 2021.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.8% month-over-month increase in October, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.8%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.

In October, 18 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments

““In October 2021, U.S. home prices moved substantially higher, but at a decelerating rate,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 19.1% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 17.1% and 18.4%, respectively. In all three cases, October’s gains were below September’s, and September’s gains were below August’s. That said, October’s 19.1% gain in the National Composite is the fourth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data. (The top three were the three months immediately preceding October.)”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 0.8% in October (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 0.9% (SA) in October.

The National index is 48% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.0% (SA) in October.  The National index is up 100% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 17.1% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 18.4% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 19.1% year-over-year.

Price increases were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2021 07:25:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: MBS RECAP: Bonds Sticking to Uneventful Script

Domestic traders were slightly better buyers despite another run to record highs in stocks. 10yr yields hit the 3pm close down just over 1bp (1.482). MBS were sideways at modestly stronger levels as well. [30 year fixed 3.27%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index for October. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. 

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. The consensus is for a 18.5% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for October.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for December.

And on COVID:

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	60.9%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	202.2	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	206,577	136,450	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	56,466	61,362	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,041	1,164	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2021 12:00:00 PM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November

Excerpt:

This update adds Charlotte, Columbus, Miami, New York, and Phoenix.
...
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November. Inventory was down 13.5% in November month-over-month (MoM) from October, and down 28.5% year-over-year (YoY).

Inventory almost always declines seasonally in November, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 25.5% YoY, so the YoY decline in November is larger than in October. This isn’t indicating a slowing market and suggests we will see new record low inventory levels this Winter.

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by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2021 09:49:00 AM

Tracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022.

Inventory usually declines sharply over the holidays - so we will likely see new record lows next week.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of December 24th, inventory was at 310 thousand (7-day average), compared to 437 thousand for the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 29.0%.  Inventory is down 4.8% from last week.

Compared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 60.3% from 783 thousand.  A week ago, inventory was at 326 thousand, and was down 28.2% YoY.   

Seasonally, inventory bottomed in April (usually inventory bottoms in January or February). Inventory last week was about 1.3% above the record low set-in early April.

Inventory peaked for the year in early September, when inventory was at 437 thousand (the peak for the year), so inventory is currently off about 29.0% from the peak for the year.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.  

by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2021 08:23:00 AM

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

This data is as of December 25th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).

The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.

The 7-day average is down 17.1% from the same day in 2019 (82.9% of 2019).  (Dashed line)

Air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last four months (with some ups and downs) - but picked up over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

----- Restaurants: OpenTable -----
The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.

IMPORTANT: OpenTable notes: "we’ve updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year." Thanks!

Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:

This data is updated through December 25, 2021.

This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."

Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.

Dining was mostly moving sideways, but there has been a significant decline recently, probably due to the winter wave of COVID.  The 7-day average for the US is down 19% compared to 2019.

----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).  

Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021.  

The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 23rd.

Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Movie ticket sales were at $418 million last week, down about 5% from the median for the week. 

The numbers this week included the newest Spider Man.

----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

This data is through December 18th. The occupancy rate was up 8.0% compared to the same week in 2019. Although down compared to 2019, the 4-week average of the occupancy rate is now above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will bottom seasonally over the next few weeks.

----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.

Blue is for 2020.  Red is for 2021.

As of December 17th, gasoline supplied was down 3.4% compared to the same week in 2019.

There have been 12 weeks this year that gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - so consumption is running close to 2019 levels now.

----- Transit: Apple Mobility -----
This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.

There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.

This data is through December 25th 

for the United States and several selected cities.

The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.

IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.

According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 83% of the January 2020 level. 

New York City is doing OK by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down significantly (next graph).

----- New York City Subway Usage -----
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).

This graph is from Todd W Schneider. 

This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).

Manhattan is at about 33% of normal (impacted by holidays too).

This data is through Friday, December 24th.

He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".

by Calculated Risk on 12/26/2021 06:13:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 26, 2021

Monday:
• At 10:30 AM ET, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are up slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $73.79 per barrel and Brent at $76.14 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $48, and Brent was at $51 - so WTI oil prices are up 50% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.25 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.24 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.01 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/26/2021 11:59:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022?

Brief excerpt:

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2022. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.
...
And the sharp decline in inventory during the pandemic (green arrow) was an indicator that price appreciation would increase. Inventory declined due to a combination of potential sellers keeping their properties off the market during a pandemic, and a pickup in buying due to record low mortgage rates, a move away from multi-family rentals and strong second home buying (to escape the high-density cities). And at the same time, demographics were favorable for home buying (a large cohort has moved into the peak home buying years).
...
First, it appears we will see record low inventories over the next few months. This suggests we will see further strong price gains over the next several months (with low inventories).

In 2021, the NAR showed inventory bottomed in January and (inventory bottoms in December), however the local MLS data, and the Altos Research data, showed inventory bottomed even later than usual - in March or early April 2021.  If 2022 follows the normal seasonal pattern, we will see inventory increasing by February (and maybe even in January).

The timing of the seasonal bottom will be important this year.  If inventory bottoms seasonally in December, we might see inventory increase YoY later in 2022.  However, if inventory doesn't bottom until March or April, we will probably see another crazy year with little inventory.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 12/25/2021 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• Lawler: More on Investor Purchases of Residential Homes: Pretium

• New Home Sales: Record 110 thousand homes have not been started New Home Prices Are Up 20% Year-over-year

• Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.46 million in November Inventory down 13.3% year-over-year

• 5th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

• Supply Chain Disruptions and Housing Inventory

This is usually published several times a week, and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The blog will continue as always!

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/  Currently all content is available for free - and some will always be free - but please subscribe!.