by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2022 10:02:00 PM

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	65.7%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	218.1	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	26,595	25,362	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	10,164	11,990	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	496	637	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Hospitalizations and deaths are declining.

Average daily deaths are the lowest since August 1st, 2021. The pandemic low (after initial surge) was just over 200 in July 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2022 03:08:00 PM

Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was 11.0% in Q1 2022, down from 11.2% in Q4 2021, and down from 11.4% in Q1 2021. The regional mall vacancy rate peaked at 11.5% in Q2 2021.

For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.3% in Q1, unchanged from 10.3% in Q4, and down from 10.6% in Q1 2021. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked during the pandemic at 10.6% in both Q1 and Q2 2021.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). The regional mall data starts in 2000. Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S&L crisis.

In the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the "roof tops" of the residential boom (more loose lending). This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before the recession started. Then there was a sharp increase in the vacancy rate during the recession and financial crisis.

In the last several years, even prior to the pandemic, the regional mall vacancy rates increased significantly from an already elevated level.

Effective rents have been mostly unchanged for regional malls over the last 3 years, and flat for strip malls for 5+ years.

Mall vacancy data courtesy of Reis

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2022 01:40:00 PM

Reis reported the office vacancy rate was at 18.1% in Q1 2022, unchanged from 18.1% in Q4, and down from 18.2% in Q1 2021. 

Q2 2021 saw the highest vacancy rate for offices since the early '90s (following the S&L crisis) 

NOTE: This says nothing about how many people are in the offices (related to the increase in work-from-home), just whether or not the office space is leased.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 1999 the data is annual).

The office vacancy rate was elevated prior to the pandemic and moved up during the pandemic.

Reis also reported that office effective rents were essentially unchanged in Q1; rents are about at the same rate as early 2019.

All vacancy data courtesy of Reis

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2022 12:39:00 PM

From BofA:

Our 1Q GDP tracking estimate remains unchanged at 0.4% qoq SAAR. [April 8 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

[W]e left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.0% (qoq ar). [April 6 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.1 percent on April 8, up from 0.9 percent on April 5. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.0 percent to -0.1 percent. [April 8 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2022 10:46:00 AM

This is a very informative podcast on the impact of higher mortgage rates on new home builders: Unpacking builders’ market sentiment with Rick Palacios. In the podcast, Housing Wire CEO Clayton Collins interviews Rick Palacios Jr., the director of research, at John Burns Real Estate Consulting about the findings in their March new home builder survey. Here is a tweet from Rick about the survey results:

"Pretty clear shift in builder tone this month across our survey"

Here are a couple of quotes from Rick in the podcast:

"On the entry level side, that is the part of the market that always feels it first when rates start to climb, and we definitely saw that [in the March survey]”
emphasis added

And on an early indicator:

"There are always early indicators of price declines on the new home side, and one of the earliest indicators is lot premiums going way. ... When the market starts to pull back, those lot premiums start to shrink pretty quickly. And those are some of the comments we've been picking up [in the March survey]. Which again, big picture, now versus a year ago, that is a total shift."

Note: This is also in the Real Estate Newsletter; You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2022 08:11:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

March 2022 was another mixed month for U.S. rail volumes. Total carloads were up 1.2% over March 2021. That’s their 12th gain in the past 13 months, but also their smallest percentage gain during that period. Total carloads averaged 233,909 per week, the second most in the past nine months. Intermodal originations, by contrast, were down 6.4% in March 2022 from March 2021. Intermodal has been down on a year-over-year basis for seven of the past eight months.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022:

n March 2022, total originated U.S. rail carloads were up 1.2% (13,456 carloads) over March 2021. That’s the 12th gain for total carloads in the past 13 months, but it’s also the smallest percentage increase for the 12 months with gains. Total carloads averaged 233,909 per week in March 2022, the second most in the past nine months (October 2021 was higher).

The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers):

For intermodal, originations in March 2022 totaled 1.34 million containers and trailers, down 6.4% (92,170 units) from March 2021. For the first three months of 2022, volume was 3.37 million units, down 6.9% (249,672) from last year. The first three months of 2021 were by far the highest-volume first three months of a year in history for intermodal. The comparable figure for this year is the fourth highest in history (behind 2021, 2018, and 2019).

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2022 02:20:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

A brief excerpt:

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in March. Note: Inventory usually increases seasonally in March, so the month-over-month (MoM) increase is not surprising.

Inventory was up 31.5% in March MoM from February, and down 1.0% year-over-year (YoY). The YoY decline in inventory in these markets was due entirely to San Diego (a very tight market). The other markets were up YoY.

This is early, and just a few markets, but it appears inventory has bottomed. Last month, these markets were down 26.1% YoY, so this is a significant change from February. This is the first step towards a more balanced market, but inventory levels are still very low.

Notes for all tables:

1) New additions to table in BOLD.

2) Northwest (Seattle)

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2022 01:01:00 PM

From CoStar: STR: With Spring Break Winding Down, US Hotel Performance Continues Dip

Reflecting continued seasonal slowing in spring break travel, U.S. hotel performance fell slightly from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through April 2.

March 27 through April 2, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 64.1% (-6.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $145.74 (+11.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $93.48 (+4.5%)

*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is just below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will now mostly move sideways seasonally until the summer.

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2022 09:14:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline in March from Seasonal Adjustment

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) declined 3.3% in March from February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 223.5, which was up 24.8% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in March was an increase of 0.6% compared to February, leaving the unadjusted average price up 23.2% year over year.

Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly price increases that accelerated in each full week of March after the first week saw the smallest decline of the year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices declined in March seasonally adjusted but are still up 24.8% year-over-year.

According to the BLS, "Used cars and trucks" were down 0.2% in February compared to January and up 41.2% year-over-year in February. It seems likely that "Used cars and trucks" will be down in the March CPI report.

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2022 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending April 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 166,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 31,000 from 202,000 to 171,000. The 4-week moving average was 170,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 30,500 from 208,500 to 178,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 170,000.

The previous week was revised down (there was a significant change to seasonal adjustment factors).

Weekly claims were well below the consensus forecast.