by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2022 08:42:00 AM

From the Department of Commerce reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $87.1 billion in April, down $20.6 billion from $107.7 billion in March, revised.

April exports were $252.6 billion, $8.5 billion more than March exports. April imports were $339.7 billion, $12.1 billion less than March imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports increased and imports decreased in April.

Exports are up 22% year-over-year; imports are up 24% year-over-year.

Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports),

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero.

The trade deficit with China increased to $30.6 billion in April, from $25.5 billion a year ago.

The trade deficit was smaller than the consensus forecast, and the deficit for March was revised down.

by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2022 09:00:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Jump Up To Highest Levels in Nearly a Month

... rates moved quite a bit higher today, as far as single days go. The average lender is at least an eighth of a percent (0.125%) higher than they were on Friday. The average conventional 30yr fixed rate is once again back up to at least 5.5% depending on number of mid-day price changes made by any given lender. [30 year fixed 5.50%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $89.3 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $109.8 Billion in March.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.7%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	221.5	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	98,513	106,339	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	20,771	21,110	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	247	320	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have quadrupled from the recent low.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2022 02:14:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

It was more of the same for U.S. freight rail traffic in May 2022: some commodities did pretty well, some did not so well, and some were in between.

Total carloads on U.S. railroads were down 3.7% in May, their second straight year-over-year decline and the third in the first five months of 2022. ... In May, U.S. intermodal volume averaged 275,640 units per week. That’s the highest weekly average for any month since June 2021 and the third-best weekly average for intermodal for May in history. May 2022 was down 4.3% from May 2021, which was the best May ever for intermodal.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022:

Originated U.S. rail carloads totaled 928,742 in May 2022, down 3.7% (35,821 carloads) from May 2021. It’s the third year-over-year monthly decline in the first five months of 2022. Total carloads averaged 232,186 per week in May 2022. In our records that go back to 1988, only 2020 had a lower weekly average for May.

The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers):

Intermodal is not included in carloads. In May 2022, U.S. intermodal volume was 1.10 million containers and trailers, an average of 275,640 units per week. That’s the highest weekly average for any month since June 2021 and the third-best weekly average for intermodal for May in history. Still, it was down 4.3% from May 2021, which was the best May ever for intermodal. (May 2018 was also higher than May 2022.)

by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2022 11:03:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Housing costs to current income levels within a whisper of all time high in 2006"

A brief excerpt:

Note: Black Knights data on affordability goes back to 1996. This doesn’t include housing in the 1980 period when 30-year mortgage rates peaked at over 18%.

And on the payment to income ratio:

• May marked the least affordable housing since July 2006, and ranked among the three least affordable months on record

• The monthly payment required to purchase the average price home with 20% down jumped another $100 through mid-May, and is now up nearly $600 (+44%) from the start of the year and $865 (+79%) from the start of the pandemic

• When comparing the rise in housing costs to current income levels, it now takes 33.7% of the median household income to purchase the average priced home, within a whisper of the 34.1% all time high at its peak in June 2006

During the housing bubble, there were “affordability products” with low teaser rates available. Excluding the bubble years, this is the worst affordability since at least the early ‘90s, maybe ‘80s.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2022 09:33:00 AM

Altos reports inventory is up 13.9% year-over-year.

Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 56% since then.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of June 3rd, inventory was at 375 thousand (7-day average), compared to 364 thousand the prior week. Inventory was up 3.1% from the previous week.

Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 13.9% from 329 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down 46.8% from 706 thousand.  Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 60.0% from 938 thousand.

Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:

1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅

2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅

3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 46.8% according to Altos)

4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 60.0%).

Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4).

The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.

Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year.  My current guess is inventory will be up in Q4 compared to the same week in 2020.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2022 08:35:00 AM

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.  Note: Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

This data is as of June 5th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).

The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.

The 7-day average is down 12.4% from the same day in 2019 87.6% of 2019).  (Dashed line) 

Air travel has been moving sideways over the last three months, off about 10% from 2019.

----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).  

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.  

The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through June 2nd.

Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.  

Movie ticket sales were at $284 million last week, up about 15% from the median for the week - due primarily to the release of Top Gun.

----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

This data is through May 28th. The occupancy rate was up 3.2% compared to the same week in 2019.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

This was the first increase in the occupancy rate compared to the same week in 2019.  This was partly due to the timing of Memorial Day, and I expect the occupancy rate to be down compared to 2019 next week.

----- New York City Subway Usage -----
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).

This graph is from Todd W Schneider. 

This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).

Manhattan is at about 39% of normal.

This data is through Friday, June 3rd.

He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".

by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2022 06:07:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of June 5, 2022

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 DOW futures are up slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $118.87 per barrel and Brent at $119.72 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $69 and Brent was at $71 - so WTI oil prices are up 70% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $4.86 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $3.04 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.82 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2022 12:13:00 PM

It will be interesting to see if high gasoline prices will lead to a higher percentage of passenger car sales.

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for May last week.

This graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs through May 2022.

Over time the mix has changed more and more towards light trucks and SUVs.

Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse.  

The percent of light trucks and SUVs was at 78.9% in May 2022 - just below the record high percentage of 80.0% last October.

The second graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the May 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 563 thousand SAAR in September 2019.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales really declined at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 299 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 450 thousand SAAR in May, up from 442 thousand in April, and down 10% from 501 thousand SAAR in May 2021.  If there is a slump in construction, then heavy truck sales will decline.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2022 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• When will House Price Growth Slow?

• Rent Increases Up Sharply Year-over-year, Pace is slowing

• Worst Housing Affordability" since 1991 excluding Bubble

• Case-Shiller National Index up 20.6% Year-over-year in March; New Record Monthly Increase

• Lawler: Large Builders Acquired Lots of Lots over the Last Year


This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Most content is available for free (and no Ads), but please subscribe!

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is CPI.

Other key reports include the April trade balance and Q1 Flow of Funds.

----- Monday, June 6th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, June 7th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $89.3 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $109.8 Billion in March.

----- Wednesday, June 8th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, June 9th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 210 thousand up from 200 thousand last week.

12:00 PM: Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, June 10th -----
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.7% increase in CPI, and a 0.5% increase in core CPI.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for June).