by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2022 01:17:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different

A brief excerpt:

There is a significant difference between measures of inventory, and this is leading to some confusion.
...
Here is a graph comparing the year-over-year change in Realtor.com’s active inventory, the NAR’s inventory, and Realtor.com inventory including pending sales. Note that the blue line (NAR) and dashed black line (Realtor including pending sales) track.

As Lawler noted, including pending sales understated the decline in active inventory in 2020 and 2021, and is now understating the increase in active inventory.

But what about Redfin? Redfin takes a very different approach. Their active inventory number for any month includes homes that came on the market and sold quickly during the month, whereas the other measures are a snapshot at the end of the month (or week).

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2022 09:54:00 AM

From BofA:

On net, August data on housing starts and existing home sales boosted our tracking estimate for residential investment modestly. After rounding, however, our 3Q US GDP tracking remained unchanged at 0.8% qoq saar. [September 23rd estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.2% (qoq ar). [September 21st estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.3 percent on September 20, down from 0.5 percent on September 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter residential investment growth decreased from -20.8 percent to -24.5 percent.​ [September 20th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2022 08:11:00 AM

From Black Knight: Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Near Record Low in August; Foreclosure Starts Up 15% from July, Still More Than 40% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

• The national delinquency rate fell 3.6% in August to 2.79%, just 4 basis points above May 2022’s record low

• Improvement was broad-based, with the number of borrowers a single payment past due falling by 4% and those 90 or more days delinquent down 4.5%

• After dropping steadily over recent months, cure activity also improved in August, with 62K seriously delinquent loans curing to current status, up from 58K in July

• The month’s 20.3K foreclosure starts represent a 15% jump in activity from July, but remain 44% below August 2019 levels

• Likewise, starts were initiated on 3.4% of serious delinquencies; up slightly from July but still less than half the rate seen in the years leading up to the pandemic

• Prepays (SMM) edged up 1.5% for the month, due to calendar-related effects, but are still down by 69% year-over-year as rising rates continue to put downward pressure on both purchase and refinance lending
emphasis added

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 3.6% in August compared to July and decreased 30% year-over-year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.79% in August, down from 2.89% in July.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased in August to 0.35%, from 0.35% in July. 

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 633,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 43,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	August  2022	July 2022	August 2021	August 2020
Delinquent	2.79%	2.89%	4.00%	6.88%
In Foreclosure	0.35%	0.35%	0.27%	0.35%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,489,000	1,543,000	2,122,000	3,679,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	185,000	184,000	142,000	187,000
Total Properties	1,674,000	1,728,000	2,264,000	3,867,000

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2022 06:33:00 PM

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 1.0% in August compared to the rolling 12 months ending in July.   Outbound traffic increased 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.

Imports were down 12% YoY in August, and exports were up 1% YoY.  

It is possible that exports have bottomed after declining for several years (even prior to pandemic).

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2022 02:17:00 PM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale and Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 17, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.

• Active inventory continued to grow, and improved 28% above one year ago. . The number of homes for sale has grown as buyers and sellers navigate a rebalancing housing market with shifting advantages and challenges.
...
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 10% from one year ago.. This week marks the eleventh straight week of year over year declines in the number of new listings coming up for sale, and this week the data continues to maintain at double-digit territory.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July.

However, the Realtor.com data has been stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 12 weeks in a row.  This is due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales have fallen sharply.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2022 12:32:00 PM

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Performance Improves; Occupancy Nears 70% Nationwide

U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week and showed improved comparisons with 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Sept. 17.

Sept. 11-17, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 69.6% (-2.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $155.58 (+15.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $108.25 (+12.9%)

*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.  Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase during the Fall business travel period, and then decline into the Winter.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2022 09:32:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August

A brief excerpt:

The big story for August existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story was that new listings were down YoY in August as the sellers’ strike continued. And active listings were up. Also, median prices are falling nationally (more than normal seasonally).

This is the final look at local markets in August. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
...
And a table of August sales. In August, sales in these markets were down 18.7% YoY. The NAR reported sales were down 17.4% NSA YoY. Contracts for sales in August were mostly signed in June and July, and we are seeing the impact of higher mortgage rates on August closings.
...
Looking ahead: In September 2022, there were the same number of working days as in September 2021, so the SA and NSA declines in sales will be similar.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2022 08:32:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 213,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,250 from 224,000 to 222,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 216,750.

The previous week was revised down.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 08:44:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for an increase to 218 thousand from 213 thousand last week.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	55,332	60,783	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2	25,406	28,571	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	356	381	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

NOTE: Cases have declined by more than half, and deaths lag cases - so we might see average daily deaths in the 200s soon (good news, but still too high).

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 02:18:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections. In June, most participants expected thirteen 25bp rate hikes in 2022. The FOMC raised rates 25 bp in March, 50 bp in May, 75 bp in June, 75 bp in July and 75 bp in September. That is twelve 25 bp increases so far, and the Fed expects rates to rise another 150 bp.  So, it now appears the FOMC is expecting eighteen 25bp rate hikes this year.

Wall Street forecasts have been revised down further since June due to the ongoing negative impacts from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and financial tightening.  The FOMC also lowered their 2022 and 2023 projections down significantly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2022	2023	2024
Sept 2022	0.1 to 0.3	0.5 to 1.5	1.4 to 2.0
June 2022	1.5 to 1.9	1.3 to 2.0	1.5 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in August. The FOMC increased their projections for the unemployment rate for Q4 2022.  And are now projecting an employment recession in 2023.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2022	2023	2024
Sept 2022	3.8 to 3.9	4.1 to 4.5	4.0 to 4.6
June 2022	3.6 to 3.8	3.8 to 4.1	3.9 to 4.1

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.3% from July 2021. The FOMC revised up their inflation projections for 2022.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2022	2023	2024
Sept 2022	5.3 to 5.7	2.6 to 3.5	2.1 to 2.6
June 2022	5.0 to 5.3	2.4 to 3.0	2.0 to 2.5

PCE core inflation was up 4.6% in July year-over-year.  And the FOMC revised up their projections. 

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2022	2023	2024
Sept 2022	4.4 to 4.6	3.0 to 3.4	2.2 to 2.5
June 2022	4.2 to 4.5	2.5 to 3.2	2.1 to 2.5